危险化学品企业安全验收评价结论量化分析

为了使危险化学品企业安全验收评价结论更加准确、客观,根据安全验收评价结论编制的原则和相关导则,从法律法规符合性、外部安全条件、总平面布局及建筑结构、主要生产装置设施、主要储存装置设施、公用工程和辅助设施、安全管理及从业人员条件和应急救援等八个方面建立了安全验收评价结论定量评估指标体系。基于层次分析法确定各级指标权重,建立了安全验收评价结论定量评估模型。为方便对安全验收评价结论进行准确、快速地评估,利用EXCEL软件建立了安全验收评价结论定量评估系统。该评估模型和评估系统可以客观、快速、准确地对危险化学品企业安全验收评价结论进行定量评估。     

灰色系统理论在高校学生公寓火灾风险评价中的应用

针对高校学生公寓火灾的安全问题,参考相关标准、征求专家意见,建立了高校学生公寓火灾风险评价指标体系,并确定了权重。在此基础上,根据灰色系统理论原理对高校学生公寓火灾风险评价进行研究,建立评价模型,运用改进后的多层次灰色关联度分析法对青岛市某高校10#学生公寓的火灾风险进行评价,得出火灾风险等级为二级,即安全。研究结果表明,所建立的评价模型对学生公寓火灾的风险评价具有良好的应用价值,也为火灾风险评价提供了一种新的综合评价方法。     

Sustainable development strategies for China's Du Jiang Yan Water Resources Project

China's Du Jiang Yan Irrigation Project, dating back to 256 BC, is one of the world's earliest water resources projects. Although it has been benefiting the Sichuan Basin area for over 2000 years, it is facing increasing problems due to ecological deterioration, over-exploitation from local industries and agriculture, suboptimal resource allocation arising from supply and demand mismatches, and an aging infrastructure. The traditional water resources development model is no longer appropriate for current and future needs of the area. Therefore, a sustainable development framework is envisioned in which population, economy and environment coexist in harmony. Within this framework, major strategies, such as construction and renovation of infrastructure, promotion of water conserving irrigation through non-engineering measures, pollution control and ecological improvements, restructuring of management entities and exploration of new funding sources, are proposed. An evaluation system is also introduced to assess the degree of sustainability and to monitor progress towards a high level of sustainable development.     

Assessment of Management to Mitigate Anthropogenic Effects on Large Whales

United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human‐induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause‐specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human‐caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species‐specific sustainable human‐caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n = 323), followed by natural causes (n = 248) and vessel strikes (n = 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel‐strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel‐strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population‐range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife‐management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality‐driven conservation issues. Evaluación del Manejo para Mitigar Efectos Antropogénicos sobre Ballenas Mayores     

Evaluation of the sustainable land use status of the North China Plain

The North China Plain is one of the most important production areas for wheat and maize in China, and also has the densest agricultural population in China. How to use and develop the limited land resources reasonably, and improve and protect them, have become issues of major concern. This paper is based on sustainability theory, reviewing the fundamental principles of sustainability, and developing an index system with which to evaluate the sustainability status of land use. We also use this method to evaluate the land-use status of the North China Plain and to analyze current factors affecting sustainable land use in this area. In addition, we propose a specific method for evaluating sustainable land use.     

多杀菌素、阿维菌素乳油和高效氯氰菊酯3种农药对环境生物的安全性评价

防治同一类病虫害的农药种类很多,在保证药效的前提下,选择对施药环境中其他生物安全的农药是非常必要的。通过毒性试验,比较了25 g·L^-1多杀菌素悬浮剂、1.8%阿维菌素乳油和4.5%高效氯氰菊酯水乳剂对环境生物蜜蜂、家蚕、赤眼蜂、大型溞和斑马鱼的风险。结果表明,25 g·L^-1多杀菌素悬浮剂对蜜蜂为高毒,对家蚕为剧毒,对赤眼蜂为高风险,对斑马鱼和大型溞为低毒;1.8%阿维菌素乳油对蜜蜂为高毒,对家蚕为剧毒,对赤眼蜂为高风险,对斑马鱼和大型溞为剧毒;4.5%高效氯氰菊酯水乳剂对蜜蜂为高毒,对家蚕为剧毒,对赤眼蜂为高风险,对斑马鱼和大型溞为剧毒。3种农药对家蚕、蜜蜂、赤眼蜂均为高风险,但与阿维菌素和高效氯氰菊酯相比多杀菌素对水生生物更安全。     

乌梁素海沉积物重金属生物活性及环境污染评估

为阐明乌梁素海沉积物重金属生物活性及理化性质对重金属形态变化的影响,对湖泊重金属污染修复治理方面提供科学依据,2011年1月在乌梁素海9个站点采集表层沉积物样品,采用改进BCR逐级提取法分析Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Cd、Hg、As等7种重金属元素的形态,利用活性系数与迁移系数对重金属生物活性进行研究;结合沉积物理化性质,系统探讨影响重金属化学形态与生物活性的因素;应用次生相与原生相比值法,从重金属形态学角度对沉积物重金属状况进行评估.结果表明,(1)沉积物中重金属活性系数的大小顺序为 Cd>Hg>Zn>Cu>Pb >As>Cr;重金属的迁移系数为 Cd>Hg>Zn>Cu>As>Pb>Cr.(2)沉积物物理化学性质和重金属总量对各种化学形态重金属含量影响程度明显不同.重金属总量对残渣态影响较大;pH对酸可提取态、有机物和硫化物结合态影响较大;有机质与酸可提取态、有机物和硫化物结合态有较大相关性;盐度与酸可提取态、有机物和硫化物结合态有一定的相关性.总氮、总磷与有机物和硫化物结合态有一定的相关性.(3)从重金属形态角度评价,7种重金属除Cd外,污染程度并不大,全湖KRSP的平均值大小顺序为Cd(1.66)>Cu(0.84)>Hg(0.72)>Zn(0.42)>Cr(0.15)>Pb(0.14)>As(0.06).结合总量、生物可利用性与形态学评价,乌梁素海重金属 Cd 是生物活性最强、污染最严重的金属,Hg污染次之,应该对Cd与Hg给予特别关注.     

基于公平性的水污染物总量分配基尼系数分析

基尼系数是经济学中对贫富差距量化评价的重要工具.从基尼系数的经济学内涵出发,将基尼系数的概念和意义应用于环境分析中.以全国2006年各地区的水污染物总量分配为例,应用基尼系数法分析了人口、国内生产总值、水资源量指标对水污染物总量分配的影响.根据计算出的中国2006年的水污染物总量分配基尼系数,对水污染物总量分配公平性进行量化分析并提出削减方案,最后得出合理的结论.     

Conserving Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function through Limited Development: an Empirical Evaluation

Abstract:  Suburban, exurban, and rural development in the United States consumes nearly 1 million hectares of land per year and is a leading threat to biodiversity. In response to this threat, conservation development has been advanced as a way to combine land development and land conservation while providing functional protection for natural resources. Yet, although conservation development techniques have been in use for decades, there have been few critical evaluations of their conservation effectiveness. We addressed this deficiency by assessing the conservation outcomes of one type of conservation development project: conservation and limited development projects (CLDPs). Conducted by land trusts, landowners, and developers, CLDPs use revenue from limited development to finance the protection of land and natural resources. We compared a sample of 10 CLDPs from the eastern United States with their respective baseline scenarios (conventional development) and with a sample of conservation subdivisions—a different conservation development technique characterized by higher-density development. To measure conservation success, we created an evaluation method containing eight indicators that quantify project impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at the site and in the surrounding landscape. The CLDPs protected and managed threatened natural resources including rare species and ecological communities. In terms of conservation benefits, the CLDPs significantly outperformed their respective baseline scenarios and the conservation subdivisions. These results imply that CLDPs can offer a low-impact alternative to conventional development and a low-cost method for protecting land when conventional conservation techniques are too expensive. In addition, our evaluation method demonstrates how planners and developers can incorporate appropriate ecological considerations when designing, reviewing, and evaluating conservation development projects.     

咸阳市温室气体排放的动态分析及等级评估

通过采用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》推荐的方法,分析了咸阳市温室气体排放的动态变化,并提出基于全球标准的温室气体排放等级评价方法,对咸阳市温室气体进行了排放等级评估.结果表明:1995—2011年,咸阳市温室气体排放量从1253.21×104t上升为5531.06×104t,年均增高9.72%,呈快速上升趋势.工业(年均增高21.34%)为增幅最高的部门,其次依次为能源(9.62%)、废弃物(7.90%)、农业(2.45%).从温室气体构成看,能源占84.73%~91.81%,工业占1.46%~8.55%,农业占3.11%~9.32%,林业碳减排占-0.53%~-2.36%,废弃物处理占1.31%~8.39%.由此可见,咸阳市温室气体排放增长的主要原因是能源消费的增加以及工业生产的大幅增长.万元GDP温室气体排放量波动下降,年均降低4.53%;人均、单位面积温室气体排放量和温室气体排放指数快速升高,年均增幅分别达9.31%、9.72%和9.48%.16年间,咸阳市温室气体排放等级从较低(Ⅰc)持续升高至中上等级(Ⅱc),已高出应对全球气候变暖目标(Ⅰb)4个亚级,温室气体减排工作刻不容缓.