推进我国减灾事业的三个支柱

本文阐述推进我国减灾事业的3个支柱,即:(1)发挥政府的主导作用;(2)重视科学技术在减灾中的作用;(3)依靠全民的参与。     

信息资源共享系统可靠性模型的研究

信息资源共享系统可以充分利用信息的传递性、共享性,支持异地协同工作,使人们获取信息更为经济、便利、迅速。信息资源共享系统有其自身的脆弱性,系统安全可靠是最重要、最基本的需求。提高系统可靠性,预防不可靠因素是信息资源共享系统设计的关键之一。笔者提出了信息资源共享系统可靠性的概念。由信息资源共享系统可靠性理论导出信息资源共享系统可靠度,建立了信息资源共享系统可靠性优化的多目标数学规划模型。为信息资源共享系统可靠性建立了定量分析方法。最后以可靠度、成本和时间3个优化目标为例,进行了计算、分析。为信息资源共享系统可靠性设计提供了新方法。     

混合质量阻尼器(HMD)抗震控制研究

建筑物的倒塌是地震造成破坏的主要形式之一 ,它导致大量的人员和财产损失。不断改进建筑物的抗震设计方法是传统的抗震减灾措施。随着结构振动控制领域的不断发展 ,它为建筑抗震减灾提供了一个新的途径。根据建筑结构抗震设计“三水准”的设防准则 ,混合质量阻尼器 (HybridMassDamper ,HMD)被应用于建筑抗震减灾中 ,对于发生频度较高的低烈度地震 ,主要通过调谐质量阻尼器 (TunedMassDamper ,TMD)控制结构的振动 ;而当发生烈度较高的地震或TMD不能满足控制目标要求时 ,启动作动器施加主动控制力 ,用主动控制力驱动TMD的附加质量块 ,提供给主结构更大的控制力 ,把TMD转化为主动质量阻尼器 (ActiveMassDemper ,AMD) ,取得预期的控制效果。理论分析和仿真计算表明 ,HMD适用地震激励的范围广 ,控制效果显著     

Experimental study on the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disaster

By using the self-developed triaxial servo-controlled seepage equipment for thermo-fluid-solid coupling of coal containing gas and the self-developed coal and gas outburst simulation test device, experiments to study the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disasters. The results show that: (i) gas seepage decreases the strength of coal containing gas and accelerates its failure process; (ii) under the same gas pressure, the confining pressure is larger, the more difficult the gas flows and the greater the intensity of coal containing gas is; (iii) in the process of coal and gas outburst, the greater the vertical ground stress is, the more powerful the outburst will be; (iv) the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disasters is as follows: firstly, gas seepage weakens the mechanical properties of coal body, which makes it much easier for coal and gas outburst to occur; secondly, on the same effect of external force, it will be easy to form a high gas pressure zone in the coal body under the difficult condition of gas seepage, and accumulate more gas compression energy, which is the energy source for coal and gas outburst, and it is also the main dynamic source to throw and grind the coal.     

Emergency preparedness through game playing

The lack of emergency preparedness in Mauritius has been the cause of many tragedies. Our approach to tackle this problem was by developing an emergency preparedness game layered and fused with a disaster warning and guidance system that emanates clarity to the unfathomable bearings of emergencies and natural disasters. The emergency preparedness game is based on a selection of diverse real life-threatening difficulties that entail different strategies aimed at bettering the survival instincts of users. It uses story-telling scenarios along with in-game footnotes that yield directives on how to brave fierce and unpredictable calamities. The game reinforces a sense of self-composedness and suppressing untimely fears of users in horrendous circumstances. With regard to the warning system, it unremittingly feeds users with notifications during emergencies, that encases shortest escape routes to lead them to safe locations via a fully functional GPS map. This application brings some novelties that are virtually non-existent in related applications. For instance, this application includes a warning and guidance system, a 3D scenario game to prepare its users for disasters, an interactive survival toolkit selection, an SMS rescue feature and a mass notification system via the web.     

System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

Alcohol is a predictor of mortality in motor vehicle collisions

IntroductionIt is well recognized that driving while intoxicated increases the probability of a motor-vehicle collision (MVC). The effect of alcohol on the chance of surviving the MVC is less clear. Method: Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) we conducted analyses for the outcome of mortality using alcohol and other variables as predictors. We also selected alcohol positive (AP) and alcohol negative (AN) persons from the same MVC and vehicle to control for confounding characteristics. Results: The odds ratio (OR) for mortality for alcohol positive drivers was 2.57, (p < 0.001 for all the following OR). Other harmful predictive factors were age OR 1.01 per year, vehicle age OR 1.05 per year, male sex OR 1.23, avoidance maneuver OR 1.09, speed related OR 2.89, rollover mechanism OR 2.75, and collision with a fixed object OR 6.70. Protective factors were proper restraint use – OR 0.19 and collision with another moving vehicle, OR 0.21. In the multivariate analysis the OR of mortality for AP vs AN was 1.46. Proper restraint use (OR 0.27) remained protective along with collision with another moving vehicle. When AP and AN persons from the same MVC and the same vehicle were compared, the adjusted OR’s for mortality were 1.46 and 2.08, respectively. Conclusions: Alcohol is an independent predictor of mortality in an MVC. Proper restraint use is the strongest protective factor. This finding allows a more complete understanding of the risks of driving while intoxicated, not only a higher probability of an MVC, but decreased survival once the MVC occurs. Practical Applications: Identification of alcohol as an independent predictor of mortality in an accident may improve risk assessment and influence drivers to avoid driving while intoxicated.     

林火管理经济学的研究与探讨——单一可变防火要素的最佳投入

用经济学的观点分析了其它防火要素的投入量不变,仅改变某种可变防火要素的投入时,减灾效益Ｅ、边际减灾效益ＥＭ、平均减灾效益Ｅ／Ｆｉ与单一可变防火要素Ｆｉ的关系。提出了如何采用连际分析的方法确定单一防火要素的最佳投入问题。     

历史时期黄河下游河道演变规律与淮河灾害治理

历史时期黄河下游河道演变规律表明,河流从沿程淤积到河口延伸、再到溯源淤积的自适应过程,在1000a、100a、50a、10a等各种时间尺度上均可能发生,这对淮河水系改造的可行性论证、方案设计等有重要指导意义。