给定地震烈度下供水系统受灾程度分析

本文提出了供水系统在给定地震烈度下受灾程度的一种分析方法。给出了地震后生命线工程系统受灾程度的一个定义。文中利用不同地震烈度下地下管道的统计震害率,并通过经验判断,确定各供水节点之间管道破坏的数量.根据震后各地下管段接头或管体本身对三种不同破坏状态的隶属度,判断管道破坏的位置和破坏的状态。在进行供水系统流量分析的基础上,给出各供水节点的服务状态。最后根据系统受灾程度的定义,计算供水系统的受灾程度。本文既利用了震害统计资料,又综合应用了理论分析得到的对三种不同破坏状态的隶属度。较科学地给出了供水系统地震后受灾程度的分析方法。同时还给出了生命线工程抗震设计准则.     

The portrayal of disaster in Western fine art

This paper surveys the depiction of disaster in Western art over the centuries. Emphasis is placed on the Italian tradition, as Italy is a country that has a rich experience of both artistic developments and disasters and has provided inspiration to artists from other countries. The survey begins with Classical art and continues with the Mediaeval fresco tradition. The vision of disaster was expanded when naturalism was introduced into art during the Renaissance. Whereas earthquakes had been a prime motivation for artistic representations in the Mediaeval period, during the Baroque volcanic eruptions seem to have been more popular, especially given the remarkable artistic output around Mount Vesuvius in the 18th century. Marine painters concentrated on storm and shipwreck, but often with delineations of extreme atmospheric phenomena. In the 19th century John Martin and others painted the Apocalypse. In the 20th century, Expressionism favoured lively depictions of natural hazards and so, surprisingly, did certain forms of metaphysical abstraction. Disaster has been seen in Western fine art in six ways: as spectacle, as allegory (through Classical mythology or Biblical drama), as a votive instrument of atonement, as a visual commemoration of an extreme event, and as a dramatization of a metaphysical proposition.     

Stock market and deterrence effect: A mid-run analysis of major environmental and non-environmental accidents

We analyze the stock market reaction to 161 major environmental and non-environmental accidents, reported on the front page of the New York Times for half a century. To determine if the market induces a real deterrence effect, we extend the event windows up to one year. On average, the market reacts negatively and enduringly to the announcement of an accident. However, this average effect is largely driven by the airline industry and by government interventions. The estimated average compounded abnormal return following environmental accidents does not differ from zero after one year. This does not exclude, in severe events affecting large firms, huge losses in equity value, but the significant negative cumulative abnormal returns estimated immediately after an environmental accident in previous studies do not persist. Our results suggest that in a market driven by institutional investors, the deterrence effect is likely to be weak.     

关于灾害系统的若干问题

本文简述了灾害系统的某些基本概念,提出了灾害学系统划分的基本原则,讨论了灾害系统的一些重要特征。指出灾害系统是一个非常复杂的大系统,它不仅是一个随着时间演化的开放系统,而且具有非线性、不确知性、不确定性和社会性。灾害系统的分析、综合和广义模型化是当前的重要课题。     

地震前兆资料减灾信息的综合开发

近一、二十年建立起来的地震前兆观测台网,不仅为地震预测预报提供了大量科学数据,而且蕴藏着丰富的减灾信息,有待我们去开发。综合观测、综合分析和综合预报是防灾减灾的必由之路。     

减轻自然灾害系统工程初议

本文用大量数据阐述了我国主要自然灾害所面临的严峻形势;进而分析了减轻自然灾害的可能性和必要性;并从系统科学和综合研究的角度出发,提出了减轻自然灾害系统工程的任务和内容。     

Looking through the postdisaster policy window

Policy windows are transitory opportunities during which the likelihood of adopting new policy or legislative proposals is greater than usual. Accepted wisdom has held that natural disasters serve as focusing events that generate policy windows in their wake. This paper highlights the need for a more circumscribed understanding of when and where policy windows occur based on the experiences of three US regional planning organizations: a hand-picked commission of community leaders, a council of governments, and a special-purpose substate organization. The first operated in the San Francisco Bay Area of California following the Loma Prieta earthquake (October 1989), and the other two in South Carolina's Atlantic coastal plain after Hurricane Hugo (September 1989). The analysis concludes that natural disasters did not transform the agenda or mission of these entities. Policy windows were neither automatic outcomes of focusing events nor did they ensure the adoption of pertinent policy within the organizations investigated. Several conditions are minimally necessary for using policy windows to bring about hazard mitigation: comprehensive institutional conceptualization of hazards management, institutional strength and flexibility, and well-placed, effective policy entrepreneurs.     

Responses to natural and man-made hazards in Borno, Northeast Nigeria

This is a study of the responses of the people of eastern Borno to the twin hazards of drought and of an irrigation project stranded by the recent low level of Lake Chad. The environmental awareness of the people has been much influenced by access to information, particularly radio. There was a perceptual dissonance; drought is discerned as a natural act of God, but lake recession is seen as man-made. There is also a gap between responses perceived as appropriate and actual responses consequent on the constraints imposed by the process of modernization, notably the introduction of the South Chad Irrigation Project (SOP). Traditional response mechanisms involving the norm of reciprocity, the use of community resources, agricultural adaptations and sharing have become relatively insignificant in Borno. These are being replaced by emigration, lake floor cultivation and household diversification     

浅析贵州草海湖区的生态灾害

本文以草海为例分析了生态系统遭人为破坏后发生的一系列灾害性事件,从中进一步分析了生态灾害的一般性特征,并提出了相应的灾害对策。     

关于建立地震灾害指标体系的研究：地震灾情的综合信息系统

建立地震灾害指杯体系,对全面、系统地反映灾情是十分重要的。本文对地震灾害指标和指标体系的定义及指标的类型、建立指标体系的基本原则及其结构、功能等进行了论述。