台风灾害避灾行为及影响因素的信效度分析

选取浙江南部山区丽水市居民台风灾害避灾行为的问卷调查样本,应用SPSS13.0统计软件,通过KMO指数、球形检验和主成份分析方法,分别对台风灾害的行为模式和影响因素进行了信效度分析.结果表明:灾前避灾行为与灾时行为的KMO指数分别为0.792和0.663,而且球形检验显著,通过因子分析,用最大方差正交旋转变换,灾前避灾行为的α值大于0.7,灾时行为的α值在0.51～0.70.行为模式影响因素的KMO指数为0.682,接近0.7,并且球形检验显著,经因子分析和最大方差正交旋转变换,α值的范围在0.54～0.72.台风灾害的行为模式和影响因素的调查及信效度分析方法可用于其它地区台风影响的研究.     

Reflections: Resolving conflicting demands within disaster risk and recovery

This ‘reflection’ describes conflicting experiences, drawn from the author’s career in varied aspects of disaster risk management and recovery (1973–2016) delving into his memory, Ian Davis explores conflicts he has felt in four parallel roles he has adopted as architect, NGO board member, academic and the personal challenges he has faced working within the humanitarian sector. After describing these encounters, some practical solutions are suggested. The reflection concludes with a suggestion that at the root of these conflicts there is a need for people working in the humanitarian field to become more accountable in a downward direction towards those they seek to serve, who often lack power and influence. These include an architect’s clients, the beneficiaries of an NGO’s concern, an academic’s students or trainees and more broadly an ethical challenge that the author strives after, to regard his work as a vocation, highlighting the need for service to others rather than self-promotion.     

灾害损失的定量计算

本文提出了一个衡量灾害损失的定量指标——灾级。灾级大小是将一次灾害中死亡、伤害和直接经济损失数折算成规范化指数后计算出来的。其方法简单易行,且适用性强。     

《防灾减灾工程学报》的被引分析

利用我国优秀博硕论文全文数据库,探讨了《防灾减灾工程学报》(以下简称《学报》)的被引与共被引。结果表明,《学报》的载文具有较高的学科前沿性、理论性、实用性与综合性;《学报》的博硕论文被引与共被引次数多、层次高,学术影响的学科范围广;防灾减灾工程与土木工程、岩土工程、地震工程、地质工程等多种工程相关性强;《学报》对我国博硕研究生教育情报贡献力大。     

Communication,neighbourhood belonging and household hurricane preparedness

This paper reports on an examination of data on how local residents in Tuscaloosa, a mid‐sized city in the state of Alabama, United States, responded to Hurricane Ivan of September 2004. The evaluation revealed that an integrated connection to community‐level communication resources—comprising local media, community organisations and interpersonal networks—has a direct impact on the likelihood of engaging in pre‐hurricane preparedness activities and an indirect effect on during‐hurricane preparedness activities. Neighbourhood belonging mediated the relation between an integrated connection to community‐level communication resources and during‐hurricane preparedness activities. Neighbourhood belonging was determined to increase the likelihood of taking preparedness actions during Hurricane Ivan, but not prior to it. In addition, we discovered an interesting pattern for two different types of risk perceptions: social and personal risk perceptions. Social risk perceptions increase the likelihood of taking preventative steps before a hurricane while personal risk perceptions are positively related to engaging in preventative action during a hurricane.     

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

A national system for disseminating information on victims during mass casualty incidents

Immediate provision of information to the public is vital during mass casualty incidents (MCIs). Failure to implement rapidly a communication response system may result in the public overwhelming hospitals. This paper shares Israel's experience in developing and maintaining a national system for supplying information on the location and identification of casualties. ADAM interfaces online with hospitals' patient registration systems, and allows for immediate electronic transfer of designated data. The system permits information centres to access information on which hospital has admitted identified and unidentified casualties. The latter are photographed at the entrance to the hospital and the picture is stored in ADAM. The system enables hospitals and municipalities to ensure immediate availability and accessibility of information and thus (in our belief) mitigate the concerns of family and friends. Use of such an interface system is recommended as an integral element of emergency preparedness.     

秦皇岛市泥石流发育特征及防治措施

近年来,随着社会经济的发展,人类工程活动频繁,泥石流地质灾害在我市每年新增灾害中占有相当大的比重,严重威胁着人民的生命财产安全。秦皇岛市泥石流主要发育在北部低山丘陵区,规模小,危害大。通过对泥石流发育特征的研究,阐明其形成条件与地形、地质环境、植被和降雨等因素的关系,并据此提出了群测群防,加强采矿活动正确管理、工程治理等防治措施。     

玉树地震灾害再次凸显应急准备重要性

为了进一步总结我国应对巨灾的经验与教训,作者采用公开发表的资料,分析了玉树地震等巨灾处置过程显现在应急准备能力方面的缺陷和薄弱环节,就此提出进一步加强我国应急准备能力建设的建议。     

美国应急通用任务评述与借鉴

为增强我国应急预案的实用性和有效性,改善现有的应急预案准则性强,可操作性弱的情况,笔者运用比较分析的方法,评述了3个版本的美国应急通用任务列表,从作用、结构和内容等方面比较各版本的通用任务表间的不同以及各自优缺点,并从理论和现实2个方面分析通用任务列表版本变迁的原因,为我国应急预案和应急准备的建立提供可借鉴的经验和参考,并对其未来发展提出建议。