城市防震减灾及其对策

城市是一个区域政治、经济、文化中心、是交通、通讯的重要枢纽,随着城市化进程的加快,城市规模日益扩大,城市人口、财产、建筑物更加密集,一旦遭受强烈地震袭击或波及,灾害损失将十分严重,加之,许多城市都处在地震的易发多发地带,地震对许多城市的安全构成了严重的威胁,本文对防震减灾工作进行了探讨。     

我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究

在分析地震的特点及我国目前抗震设防中存在问题的基础上,提出了社会可接受地震人员死亡率的概念,介绍了确定可接受地震人员死亡率的方法及需要考虑的因素。同时通过对其它自然灾害和人为灾害死亡率的统计,以问卷调查的形式咨询了熟悉防震减灾工作的有关专家和政府管理部门等业内人士的意见,在此基础上,给出了较合理的社会可接受地震人员死亡率的建议值,为在抗震设防标准研究中定量考虑和控制地震人员伤亡提供了依据。     

抓住机遇,建设新世纪专群结合的地震监测预报系统

建设专家为主、专群结合的地震监测预报体系是当前防震减灾的重点工作之一。通过回顾浙江省“九五”期间建设地震监测系统的实践 ,认为在当前科技水平和管理体制下 ,专群结合是建设好现代化地震监测预报系统的重要保证。省局必须正确处理好省级以下地震部门工作中的几个问题 ,发挥专业队伍在监测预报体系中的主导作用 ,才能做好新时期的地震监测预报工作。     

Towards an integrated approach of disaster and environment management: A case study of Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio era examinar los problemas emocionales y comportamentales de niños refugiados no acompañados que fueron repatriados a Vietnam de los centros de refugiados de Hong-Kong y del Sudeste asiático. Los niños fueron comparados con una muestra emparejada de niños que nunca dejaron Vietnam.Método: La muestra estaba compuesta por un total de 455 niños vietnamitas de edades comprendidas entre los 10 y los 22 años. Un total de 238 niños habían residido previamente sin sus padres en campos de refugiados. Se recogieron datos aplicando la versión de autoinforme para jóvenes del Achenbach (Youth Self-Report), la Escala de Autoeficacia Percibida de Cowen, una escala de Soporte Social y una escala de Exposición al Trauma.Resultados: No se observaron diferencias significativas entre los grupos de niños en la puntuación total del YSR. Los niños previamente refugiados tuvieron puntuaciones más bajas que los niños del grupo control en la escala de “problemas de conducta externalizados”. Se observó una tendencia en los niños refugiados a presentar puntuaciones más altas que los niños del grupo control en la escala de “problemas de conducta internalizados”. No se observaron diferencias entre los dos grupos en la eficacia autopercibida, el número de fuentes de apoyo social y las experiencias de apoyo social. Otros análisis mostraron que una interacción significativa entre la condición de inmigrantes de los niños y su percepción subjetiva del actual nivel de vida explicó las diferencias en las puntuaciones en el YSR.Conclusión: Los resultados sugieren que la experiencia de vivir sin sus padres en un campo de refugiados no conduce a presentar más problemas emocionales y de conducta en los años posteriores inmediatos a la repatriación.

Learning from UK disaster exercises: policy implications for effective emergency preparedness

With a view towards suggesting improvements to the official UK Guidance for disaster exercises, this paper critically examines a representative sample of recent disaster management exercises in the United Kingdom to determine how they are planned, conducted and assessed. Personal observations and in‐depth qualitative interviews were used to study three representative multi‐agency disaster exercises in the UK: (1) the Hitachi 395 Evacuation Workshop and Exercise Twin Bore, (2) Exercise Saxon Shore and (3) Exercise Operation Safe Return. The research demonstrates that disaster exercises in the UK generally consist of four main approaches: (1) disaster response and adaptability, (2) building‐block approach, (3) citizen participation and (4) discussion‐based debriefs. While the data demonstrates that each of these approaches has significant merit, it also elucidates key improvements that should be made to the official UK guidance and reflected in future exercises. In particular, the research suggests that the Guidance should highlight the importance of adaptability at the scene of a disaster, advance a building‐block methodology to organising exercises and reiterate the need for better debriefings of volunteer participants.     

The establishment of a standard operation procedure for psychiatric service after an earthquake

This study presents information on the design and creation of a standard operation procedure (SOP) for psychiatric service after an earthquake. The strategies employed focused on the detection of survivors who developed persistent psychiatric illness, particularly post-traumatic stress and major depressive disorders. In addition, the study attempted to detect the risk factors for psychiatric illness. A Disaster-Related Psychological Screening Test (DRPST) was designed by five psychiatrists and two public health professionals for rapidly and simply interviewing 4,223 respondents within six months of the September 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. A SOP was established through a systemic literature review, action research, and two years of data collection. Despite the limited time and resources inherent to a disaster situation, it is necessary to develop an SOP for psychiatric service after an earthquake in order to assist the high number of survivors suffering from subsequent psychiatric impairment.     

国内外应急准备规划体系比较研究

本文在对中国、美国、英国、澳大利亚、爱尔兰等国政府部门或咨询机构发布的大量应急准备规划相关的规范性指导文件的收集与分析的基础上,对这些国家在应急规划的分级分类、政策指导、规划过程、理论基础和规划工具等方面的情况进行了比较研究,分析了目前中国应急准备规划中存在的一些问题和需求。研究表明成熟的规划理论,符合国情的分级分类方法,规范的规划过程,具体详实、实用的指导文件和规划工具,是做好应急准备规划的基础。研究结果可为建立和完善中国应急准备规划体系及其理论与方法提供有益的启示和参考。     

An evaluation of risk assessment framework for industrial accidents in India

Due to rapid industrialization, with high population density and constraints of land, it is expected that level of risks arising from the hazardous industries will increase in India in the coming decades. However, 30 years after the Bhopal accident (1984), except a few discrete regulations, there is as yet no integrated system for assessing and managing risks arising out of these hazardous industries in India. The gravity of aspects related to the management of industrial risk still remains crucially important. In particular, there is no standard guideline on risk analysis methodology, acceptability or tolerability criteria, nor is there an accident database or a risk reduction strategy for the areas where risk levels are already high. On top of this, there are technical and legislative gaps in the institutional framework to implement any of the above mentioned issues. With the backdrop of the Bhopal gas tragedy, the objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the effectiveness of a comprehensive risk assessment framework for the emerging economy of India, in order to control and/or to reduce the risk level that exists. In this context, regulations and policies pertaining to industrial risk assessment were reviewed.     

A capping technique for emergency response in offshore blowout accidents

Capping stack is an emergency shut-in technique that can effectively control offshore blowout accidents. This technique stemmed the spilled oil well (Macondo) in 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout accident. However, few efforts have been devoted to studying the way to efficiently and safely conduct the operation of capping stack. In this paper, program evaluation and review technique (PERT) was employed to quantitatively design the operation procedure of capping stack. A mechanical model was established to determine the configuration scheme of capping stack. And a sensitivity analysis of operational factors of capping stack was conducted through orthogonal tests. Experimental results recommend to optimize the operation process by reducing the working time of diamond cutting tool down-pass, Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) upper riser incision, LMRP and original Blowout Preventer (BOP) separation, and LMRP recovery, in order to guarantee that the whole operation can be completed as scheduled. The results show that the number of ram BOPs has little effect on the equivalent stress of conductors. To improve system reliability, a five-ram capping stack is recommended to be applied in the defined accident scenario. The maximum equivalent stress of conductors rates the drilling vessel offset as the primary factor, followed by shut-in pressure, ocean current and top tension. The drilling vessel offset needs to be given the priority control and the shut-in pressure should be jointly monitored.     

基于风险和应急准备能力评估的 应急救援能力建设

为提升我国应对综合自然灾害的应急响应与救援能力,笔者首先指出我国目前在应急准备能力评估和应急救援能力建设方面存在的主要问题;然后以地震为例,提出应急准备能力评估的指标体系框架、指标分类及评价方法,通过评估找出现存能力差距,开展基于风险评估和应急准备能力评估的应对综合自然灾害的救援能力建设。研究表明:开展基于风险和应急准备能力评估的救援能力建设能实现重特大自然灾害快速有效响应与指挥调度能力,极大提升我国重特大自然灾害的应对能力。