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71.
本文采取改进的“BM”方法,分旬、分县(市)客观、定量诊断气候旱涝灾害,进而模拟未来旬由旱(涝)转为正常所需的降水量(或无雨旬数)及其出现的气候概率。并在此基础上设计应用服务的实施方案.有效地提高防抗灾害的决策能力。 相似文献
72.
本文根据旱涝史料及现代观测资料,运用旱涝等级评定法和农田水分平衡法,对秦岭─黄淮平原交界带自1470~1980年逐年的旱涝状况进行了评定,重建了秦岭─黄淮平原交界带1470~1980年近500a的旱涝等级序列,在此基础上讨论了旱涝发生的基本规律。运用山地─平原交界带气候边际效应的观点,探讨了山地─平原交界带气候边际效应与旱涝的关系. 相似文献
73.
山东省旱,涝,地震灾害的时序特征及其相互关系 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
分析了山东地区历史干旱、洪涝和地震灾害时间分布特征及其相互关系,发现旱涝与地震灾害一样具有不同时间尺度的准周期活动特征,且地震与旱涝具有一定相关关系.如内陆大地震多与干旱活动相继发生,海域地震多发生在洪涝活动时期;破坏性地震前多发生干旱,震后又常有洪涝相随等。进而对山东旱涝活动进行了初步分期。文中还对上述现象的成因作了简单分析。 相似文献
74.
论人类与旱涝灾害相互作用的关系 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文以旱涝灾害与农业发展为主线,对人类与旱涝灾害的关系进行了分析.全文由两部分组成:①探讨了在人类的不同发展阶段,旱涝灾害对人类特别是农业生产的作用形式;②就旱涝灾害对人类社会的破坏作用及其时间和空间特点等进行了分析. 相似文献
75.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the anatomical and physiological differences between two Leymus chinensis ecotypes coexisted in semi-humid meadow and semi-arid steppe. The study addressed the hypothesis that, at same habitat, the two ecotypes exhibit remarkable divergences in adaptive strategies under drought and salinity, and the function of these strategies is compensatory. Leaf samples were collected from each type at the two sites in field. Sections of 2 cm × 2 cm were cut from the middle of fully expanded leaves and fixed in FAA. Leaf anatomical traits (e.g. stomatal density, leaf thickness and vessel diameters) were examined, and leaf mass per area (LMA), relative water content (RWC), proline, K+ and Na+ were measured. Compared with the gray green type (GG), the yellow green type (YG) with relative greater LMA and leaf thickness, lower stomatal density and index exhibited more obvious xerophil-liked anatomical traits, while higher RWC, proline, K+ and K+/Na+ for the GG type suggested that the ability of osmotic adjustment and salt tolerance of the GG type were stronger than the YG type. Stronger xerophytic anatomical traits were the supplementary strategies of the YG type for its low ability of osmotic adjustment and salt tolerance to drought and salinity.Concluding, there exist significant differences in anatomical and physiological strategies between the two ecotypes and the compensatory effects of these strategies enable the two ecotypes coexist at similar habitat. 相似文献
76.
Stefan Hochrainer Reinhard Mechler Georg Pflug 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(3):231-250
This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate
change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations
in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance
modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating
the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving
the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability
and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate
the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern
to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A
quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest
to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis
identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and
limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.
相似文献
Reinhard MechlerEmail: |
77.
78.
SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以滇西南地区为研究区,计算出近53 a该区及周边44个气象站点标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化降水指数(SPI)。运用M-K突变检测和Morlet小波交换等方法,对滇西南地区两种指数对应下的4种类型季节连旱变化特征进行系统分析。结果表明:近53 a中,两种指数判定的同一时间尺度下的干旱事件次数和发生时间基本统一,4种类型季节连旱事件为12~14次,多存在并发性;4个季节连旱时段上两种指数均存在3 a左右显著周期变化;同一时段上,两种指数在趋势变化格局空间分布和变化程度上均存在着较大差异,4个时段上的干湿变化趋势也表现出SPEI呈变干趋势,SPI则变干、变湿各为一半的明显不同,这主要是由于期间研究区显著增温加剧了"降水量-蒸散"的水分平衡;与SPI相比,SPEI考虑了热量因子对潜在蒸散发的贡献,能较好地对气候变暖背景下研究区干旱进行刻画。 相似文献
79.
80.
Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate
change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights
how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous
research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing
how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service
is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using
portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem
crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to
building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes. 相似文献