国际减灾教育进展

减灾教育是防灾减灾的重要途径和组成部分,联合国教科文组织提出"防灾减灾始于学校",利用知识和教育培养抗灾意识。通过对国际重要会议的决议及联合国历次减灾大会进展报告中有关国际减灾教育的主要内容进行梳理,总结了历年来国际减灾意识培训的进展轨迹,分析了减灾意识教育的发展趋势。     

城市和农村社区防灾减灾手册和挂图的设计与编制

介绍了城市和农村社区防灾减灾手册和挂图的设计和编制,包括设计和编制原则、编制流程、手册和挂图的内容与结构、挂图编制的主要表示方法以及编制的组织和实施过程。     

Networking emergency teams in Jerusalem

With the recent upsurge in terrorism, more and more attention is being directed at examining the effectiveness and efficiency of emergency teams. These teams tend to focus on their areas of expertise without necessarily communicating, cooperating or coordinating their operations. Research suggests that improved interpersonal communication and coordination enhances the overall work of each emergency team, and that their combined effort is far in excess of the sum of their individual endeavours. This paper outlines attempts made in Jerusalem to improve the performance of emergency teams and to help the helpers by holding training workshops, setting up a forum of co‐workers and encouraging dialogue among various emergency teams in the city. A planned intervention programme was designed to enable informal networking between team leaders. The programme had an impact on team workers and resulted in a more coordinated and effective service delivery during emergencies.     

Comparative analysis of permanent post-disaster houses constructed in Çankırı and Dinar

A major challenge after an earthquake is how to establish a new residential area of a similar or even improved standard for people who have suffered psychological, social and economic impacts and witnessed significant damage to the physical environment. As part of a research project conducted in 2005 and 2008, questionnaires were administered to the permanent occupiers of post‐disaster houses in the Turkish cities of Çank?r? and Dinar. They were asked to compare the comfort levels and other characteristics of the houses in which they now reside with those of the traditional houses in which they used to live. The survey revealed that such aspects do not differ between the two types of accommodation. However, differences were identified between the two areas under review (Çank?r? and Dinar). In addition, average scores for traditional houses were higher than those for post‐disaster houses in both places.     

巨灾保险下减灾积极性的影响因素及激励措施——基于美国巨灾保险项目的经验

讨论了保险的损失补偿职能和防灾减灾功能的关系,分析了巨灾保险框架下影响被保险人、保险人和其他利害方减灾积极性的多种因素,并基于美国的实践经验,从巨灾保险制度自身设计、政府支持和社会其他利害方的配合这三个角度剖析了调动防灾减灾积极性的各种手段和政策措施。这些经验对我国巨灾保险体系的构建具有一定的借鉴意义。研究结论表明,在合理的制度下,巨灾保险将发挥重要的防灾减灾功能。     

渤海西岸盐业气象灾害灾损评估方法研究

针对渤海西岸盐业生产中所遭受的暴雨、突发性的雷阵雨、大风(短时)、风暴潮、低温等气象灾害,阐述了其灾损评估的理论依据,全面分析了影响原盐生产的主要气象灾害的各种因素,选取了其合适的气象灾害指标,并进行分级,确定了灾害的评估方法,并建立了灾损评估模型,通过检验,说明其效果良好。     

基于GIS的太湖流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究

暴雨洪水灾害是威胁人类的区域重要气象灾害,暴雨风险研究具有重要的现实意义。在GIS/RS技术支撑下,采用AHP层次分析法和综合指数方法对太湖区域暴雨洪水风险压力进行了定量化研究。研究发现:①由于降水频度高危险性指数为5.5～7.1,湖西区属于重度危险到极度危险区;浦东浦西区危险性指数为4.5～5.5,属于中度危险到重度危险区;武澄锡区、阳澄淀泖区由于地势低洼,危险性指数为4.2～5.5,属于轻度危险到重度危险区;杭州湾北岸的杭嘉湖区、浙西区受径流影响,危险指数为2.3～4.8,属于微度危险到中度危险区。②上海的浦东、浦西区与苏州、无锡、常州、杭州、镇江的脆弱性指数为7～10,属于重度脆弱到极度脆弱区;张家港、常熟、太仓、昆山以及浙北地区的湖州、嘉兴等地脆弱性指数为4.8～7.0,属于中度脆弱到重度脆弱区;浙西的山区脆弱性指数为1～4.6,属于微度脆弱到轻度脆弱区。③太湖流域北岸的湖西区、武澄锡区、阳澄淀泖区以及浦东浦西区的综合风险指数较高;杭嘉湖区次之;浙西区综合风险最低。     

基于离散型Hopfield神经网络的台风灾情评估模型

台风灾情评估对防台减灾和救灾工作十分重要,为此,提出并建立了一种基于离散型Hopfield神经网络的评估模型。该模型选取5个评估因子,根据广东省台风灾害历史数据,按灾害等级划分原则制定了评估因子5个等级的划分方法,然后将待分级的台风进行Hopfield编码,建立离散型Hopfield神经网络模型,并用实例对模型进行了验证,分析模型的不足,将评估因子的权重因素引入到模型中,使模型更加合理。     

延安地区明代、清代干旱灾害与气候变化对比研究

根据延安地区历史时期旱灾资料,研究了该地区明清旱灾差异和气候的不同。结果表明,延安地区明代(1368-1643年)276年内,共发生旱灾115次,平均每2.4年发生1次;其中轻度旱灾17次,中度旱灾52次,大旱灾34次,特大旱灾12次。清代(1644-1912年)的269年里,共发生旱灾35次,平均7.7年发生1次;其中轻度旱灾6次,中度旱灾25次,大旱灾3次,特大旱灾1次。延安地区明清旱灾差异显著,明代旱灾频次是清代的3.2倍;明代旱灾等级比清代高,前者大旱灾与特大旱灾占旱灾总数的40%,后者的仅占11.6%。明代干旱气候事件频繁,清代干旱气候事件少见。延安地区明代旱灾发生频繁和等级高的原因是当时气候变干和干旱气候事件频繁出现引起的,说明明代是气候较为干旱的时期。延安地区清代旱灾频次低和等级低是当时降水量较多的结果,说明清代是较湿润的时期。明代和清代大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为440mm左右,特大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为360mm左右。     

我国灾害事件三层分类体系的研究分析

各类灾害事件都会对国家和人民的财产造成不同程度的损失,甚至还会对人民的生命构成严重威胁,不利于社会的稳定与和谐。因此,对灾害事件进行合理的界定与分类是防灾减灾工作的基础。在分析、讨论现有分类方法的基础上,先将灾害事件按其成因划分为2种灾型,又根据其发生环境将每一灾型划分为4种灾类,最后落实到每一具体灾种上,形成了灾害事件的三层分类体系,以供防灾减灾工作参考。