我国夏季风活跃期旱涝变化及其影响分析

本文根据1951～1990年我国336个站逐旬降水量资料,采用服从Person Ⅲ型分布的旱涝Z指数,分析了40年来我国夏季风活跃期旱涝事件,揭露了夏季旱涝演变的事实。并对旱涝灾害的影响进行了评述。     

Monod模型在潜流式人工湿地中的应用探讨

本文对一阶模型和零阶模型进行了比较，提出将Monod模型用于潜流式人工湿地的设计和运行之中。通过模型的动力学分析，表明负荷率和零阶去除率常数是决定潜流式人工湿地去除效果的基本参数，特别是在应用Monod模型时，可以得出湿地的最大去除率，从而避免在设计时引起尺寸过小。这有很重要的意义，说明湿地的负荷率有一个上限(这在一阶模型中是得不到的)。另外，本文还引进了一个新的无量纲参数无量钢参数Ω——湿地去除效率因子，作为比较湿地运行效果的有效方式。     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

自然灾害等级划分及灾害分级管理研究

在论述了我国目前自然灾害等级划分和灾害分级管理的几种方法基础上，对自然灾害等级划分及灾害分级管理综合因素进行了分析认为：对自然灾害等级划分要统一评判指标─－以经济损失和人员伤亡为评判指标；建议在分级管理中采用灾害分级和灾损率两项指标；在灾害管理中建立科学的查灾、计灾、报交制度，加快灾害管理立法，走以法治灾之路．     

内蒙古森林气象火险等级数值模拟个例研究

按照中尺度模式与统计方法相结合的思路,对缺少观测资料的森林地区进行气象火险等级模拟,可以达到森林火险预警的目的.采用这一方法可以大大提高森林气象火险服务的能力,提供具有高时空分辨率的森林火险预警信息.以1997年5月2日内蒙古绰尔发生的特大森林火灾为例,利用一个三维M-γ尺度大气-土壤耦合模式,对该地火灾发生前、中、后期的气象要素场进行了模拟,并根据森林气象火险等级综合指数,最后得到了研究区域的气象火险等级时空分布状况.结果表明,该中尺度模式模拟能力强,气象要素场的模拟结果基本符合山区气候变化规律,分析的森林气象火险等级分布与实际情况符合得较好.由此可见,采用中尺度模式进行火险预警的方法,可以为森林防火提供较为可靠的指导.     

森林火险等级分布模拟--中小尺度动力学模式

通过在地形坐标系中建立考虑森林植被影响的三维大气-土壤耦合动力学模式,对神农架林区历史上几次重大森林火灾发生期的气象要素场进行了模拟,并在此基础上计算神农架林区高分辨率的森林火险等级分布状态,揭示了林火发生的一些重要规律。     

Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy

In this paper we show how ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance can be used to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. We compare and contrast alternative ways of using science to support policy in order to critique traditional commentary on Australian drought policy. We find that criticism from narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives has provided few practical options for policy makers managing these complex and interacting goals. In contrast, ideas from a longstanding but little recognised literature on adaptive governance have potential to create innovative policy options for addressing the multiple interacting goals of Australian drought policy.From an adaptive governance perspective, the deep concern held by Australian society for rural communities affected by drought can be viewed as a common property resource that can be sustainably managed by governments in cooperation with rural communities. Managing drought assistance as a common property resource can be facilitated through nested and polycentric systems of governance similar to those that have already evolved in other arenas of natural resource management in Australia, such as Landcare groups and Catchment Management Authorities. Essential to delivering these options is the creation of flexible, regionally distributed scientific support for drought policy capable of integrating local knowledge and informing the livelihood outcomes of critical importance to governments and rural communities.     

泰来县抗旱灌溉引水工程水土流失预测

采用类比法,结合泰来县抗旱灌溉引水工程的调查进行综合分析,从基本建设期水土流失量,林草恢复期水土流失量方面进行预测,得出该工程水土流失预测总量49835t,新增水土流失量25458t的结论。     

地震震后埋压人员伤情程度分级研究

地震震后救援的重点对象是被埋压的伤员,为了在实施救援之前对伤员受伤程度进行准确判断,进一步弥补目前针对埋压人员伤情判断缺少统一标准的不足。基于现有文献在地震震后人员受伤特点以及分级救援等方面已有成果,对地震埋压的形成、救援、伤亡情况进行统计和分析。通过对埋压伤员损害因素以及对救援的影响因素进行综合分析,对埋压伤员的损伤进行分类,进而确定对地震震后埋压伤员的损伤分级指标及其优先顺序。最后,以其他类似分级标准为参考,对各指标进行分级演绎,制定出综合分级表,为伤员损伤程度的分级标准化提供一定的参考,研究结果有助于震后应急救援资源配置的优化,进而提高整体救援效率。     

基于不同指标无量纲化方法的岩爆预测模型优选

为研究不同指标无量纲化方法对岩爆等级预测模型精度的影响,提高岩爆预测准确率,选取应力系数、脆性系数和弹性能量指数作为预测指标。基于104组岩爆实例大样本数据,采用统一极差处理法、差异化极差处理法、平均化处理法和归一化处理法4种指标无量钢化方法,对预测指标的原始数据进行处理,建立不同的岩爆预测距离判别模型并进行工程实例应用。研究结果表明:基于平均化处理法的岩爆预测模型的回判准确率高达97.1%;对不同矿山、隧道和水电站的6个工程实例的预测结果符合实际情况,说明其是一种准确率高、方便实用的岩爆预测模型。