金华旱涝趋势统计分析

根据对旱涝自身变化及其与太阳黑子活动，厄尔尼诺事件关系的分析，，得出了金华旱涝趋势的几点认识：（1）在未来的十几年之内，金华站将从涝年占优势的阶段转入旱年占优势的阶段；（2）在太阳黑子活动22年的磁周期转变年前后，金华站3年平均年降水量明显偏多；（3）在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量偏多；（4）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日，那么次年金华站年降水量偏多；（5）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大，对金华站年降水量的影响也越大；（6）在太阳黑子活动22年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量明显偏多。这些认识对长期及超长期的旱涝趋势预测具有重要的现实意义。     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

Rapid Assessment of Soil Erosion in the Rio Lempa Basin, Central America, Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems

Soil erosion is a severe problem for many developing regions that lack adequate infrastructure to combat the problem. The authors established a first-order method for prioritizing areas to be examined and remediated using preexisting data and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The Universal Soil Loss Equation was applied to the Rio Lempa Basin in Central America using geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies, and the estimated erosion rates were compared with sediment delivery ratios. Spatial analysis indicates that agriculture on very steep slopes contributes only a small fraction to the total estimated soil erosion, whereas agriculture on gentle and moderately steep slopes contributes a large fraction of the erosion. Although much of the basin is in El Salvador, the greatest estimated amount of erosion is from Honduras. Data quality and availability were impaired by a lack of coordination among agencies and across countries. Several avenues for improving the authors’ methods are described.     

1997/1998厄尔尼诺与江苏气象灾害及对农业影响的分析

１９９７／１９９８厄尔尼诺事件在１９９７～１９９８年冬春给江苏省带来严重气象灾害， 导致三麦、油菜减产近３成。夏季长江出现仅次于１９５４年的全流域性特大洪涝， 形势十分严峻。本文以大量翔实的数据与灾情资料， 分析了厄尔尼诺与江苏气象灾害的密切关系， 提请人们关注厄尔尼诺， 预防气象灾害。     

Emergency and institutional crisis in Peru during El Nino 1982-1983

From December 1982 through July 1983, Peru was plagued by disastrous consequences of El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. While the northern part of the country was devastated by torrential rains and floods, central Andean Peru endured landslides and flash floods, the southern Altiplano suffered a severe drought. Hazard preparedness was nonexistent, and official disaster relief uncoordinated and slow in coming. Administrative inefficiency magnified the stress upon the populations under disaster conditions. Provisions of disaster training from specialized international organizations is recommended as a preventive measure and as a policy to improve catastrophe-coping abilities in developing nations.     

浙江省洪水成因初探

根据大量洪水和有关资料,从太阳活动、行星运行和地球系统等方面,分析了形成浙江洪水的物理因素,为洪水预测提供了一定的理论依据．     

Indonesian peat and vegetation fire emissions: Study on factors influencing large-scale smoke haze pollution using a regional atmospheric chemistry model

Numerical modelling of fire-related smoke haze episodes in Southeast Asia is important for both prediction and assessment of atmospheric impacts, especially when observational data are fragmentary, as is the case in Indonesia. This work describes the atmospheric fate of smoke particles emitted during the 1997 Indonesian fires modelled with a regional atmospheric chemistry model. We established a new fire emission inventory and calculate that 55 teragram (Tg) of particulate matter and 1098 Tg of carbon were released during this fire episode. Our emission estimate is an intermediate value compared with other studies. Utilising different scenarios, we demonstrate the variable atmospheric impacts of surface vegetation fires and peat soil fires separately and also investigate the sensitivity of smoke dispersion to the differing meteorological conditions of an El Niño and a normal year. When peat fires are included in the emission inventory, modelled ambient particle concentrations exceed the ambient air quality standard across transboundary scales. In a scenario including only surface vegetation fires, ambient air quality standards are exceeded only in areas close to the main fires. This scenario demonstrates the prominent role of fires in peat areas in causing regional air pollution episodes. In years with normal meteorological conditions, intermittent precipitation and associated wet deposition during the dry season are predicted to remove most of the particulate emissions close to the sources. Strongly reduced rainfall and generally stronger southeasterly winds during El Niño years provide favourable conditions for larger scale smoke haze pollution.     

Effect of El Nĩno on demographic,morphological, and chemical parameters in turtle-grass (Thalassia testudinum): an unexpected test of indicators

We examined the response of demographic, morphological, and chemical parameters of turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum), to much-higher-than-normal rainfall associated with an El Niño event in the winter of 1997–1998. Up to 20 inches of added rain fell between December 1997 and March 1998, triggering widespread and persistent phytoplankton blooms along the west coast of Florida. Water-column chlorophyll concentrations estimated from serial SeaWiFS imagery were much higher during the El Niño event than in the previous or following years, although the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms varied among sites. Seagrass samples collected in 1997, 1998, and 1999 provided an excellent opportunity to test the responsiveness of Thalassia to decline and subsequent improvement of water quality and clarity in four estuaries. Using a scoring technique based on temporal responsiveness, spatial consistency, and statistical strength of indicators, we found that several morphological parameters (Thalassia shoot density, blade width, blade number, and shoot-specific leaf area) were responsive and consistent measures of light stress. Some morphological parameters, such as rhizome apex density, responded to declines and subsequent improvement in water clarity, but lacked the statistical discriminating power necessary to be useful indicators. However, rhizome sugar, starch, and the total carbohydrate concentrations also exhibited spatially and temporally consistent variation as well as statistical strength. Because changes in shoot density, as well as water clarity, affect rhizome carbohydrate levels, a composite metric based on Thalassia shoot density and rhizome carbohydrate levels together is probably more useful than either parameter alone as an indicator of seagrass health.     

2015年厄尔尼诺年东南亚主要国家活跃火发生类型与影响分析

2015年强厄尔尼诺引起东南亚干旱少雨与活跃火加剧,但目前有关活跃火时空特征、发生类型与强度及其对人口—社会经济影响仍分析不足。利用美国国家航空航天局火灾信息资源管理系统（FIRMS）VIIRS V1活跃火位置矢量产品,通过月际、地形、土地覆被类型等GIS分析确定东南亚主要国家活跃火主要类型,并评价各国活跃火对人口分布的影响范围与国别差异。结果表明：（1）东南亚2015年活跃火发生频次达81.40×10⁵次,中南半岛与马来群岛各占69.60%与30.40%,分别集中发生在2-4月与8-10月,各国活跃火频次与发生时间差异很大。（2）中南半岛五国活跃火地形差异明显,缅甸和越南活跃火集中分布于25 m以下;老挝（85~105 m、140~200 m）、泰国（5~15 m、70~110 m）和柬埔寨（5~15 m、70~110 m）活跃火随海拔呈双峰特征;马来群岛国家（印度尼西亚、马来西亚与菲律宾）活跃火集中分布于60 m以下的平原地带;且东南亚35%以上的活跃火均集中分布5~15°的斜坡。（3）东南亚森林、农田活跃火发生率为76%,其中森林活跃火发生率由柬埔寨的52.00%到老挝的74.27%不等,农田活跃火由老挝的13.18%到泰国的42.68%不等。（4）综合活跃火发生月份、海拔、坡度与覆被特征,可从山区刀耕火种农业与平原秸秆焚烧界定东南亚主要国家活跃火发生类型。（5）东南亚活跃火随人口密度增加呈先增后减至平稳变化的趋势,且多集中于人口稀少的乡村和原始森林,其中缅甸、泰国、越南三国有10%以上的活跃火发生在人口密度为72~91人/km²的区域,而马来西亚、老挝、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚30%以上的活跃火集中发生于人口密度在20人/km²以下的区域。     

上海气象参数与太阳活动和ENSO的关系

运用2进小波的分解与重构技术分析了太阳活动、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENS0)与上海地区月降水量、月均气压和月均温度序列之间的可能关系。研究结果表明，在不同的时间尺度(频带)上太阳活动和ENS0对上海的月降水量、月均气压和月均温度有不同的影响；在某种程度上ENS0活动对上海月降水量和月均气温的影响强于太阳活动的影响。结果还清楚表明和证实了在不同频带上太阳活动与ENS0活动之间的密切联系。