El Niño影响下春季南海北部表层水体CO2分压变化

采用走航连续观测系统分别在2011年5月和2015年5月对南海北部表层水体温度、盐度、溶解氧、叶绿素a和pCO_2进行了现场观测.在El Nio影响下,2015年5月华南地区及广东省降雨量偏多,大量冲淡水入海,南海北部冲淡水区域海表盐度显著降低,2015年5月冲淡水区域海表盐度平均值为(28.05±6.18),低于2011年5月的海表盐度平均值(29.65±2.58),同时实测冲淡水区域海表温度平均升高约2.10℃.冲淡水携带的营养物质和适度升高的海表温度共同促进了冲淡水区域浮游植物的繁殖.浮游植物光合作用不断地将海水中的游离CO2转化为有机碳,同时释放出氧气,使得水体pCO_2降低,2015年5月冲淡水区域pCO_2平均值为(286±95)μatm,低于2011年5月的pCO_2平均值(300±42)μatm.2015年5月实测获得离岸海域pCO_2平均值为(421±9)μatm,高于2011年5月pCO_2平均值(386±13)μatm,二者差值为35μatm,海表温度是离岸海域pCO_2的主要影响因子,2015年5月El Nio期间离岸海域SST升高1.96℃.El Nio影响下冲淡水区域的碳汇作用增加,离岸海域的碳源作用增强,冲淡水区域碳汇增加与离岸海域碳源增强基本抵消,2015年5月南海北部整体仍是CO_2弱汇区,约为-0.40 mmol·m~(-2)·d~(-1),与2011年5月通量值-0.58 mmol·m~(-2)·d~(-1)差别不明显.     

1991年江淮流域特大洪涝与厄尼诺

1991年初夏,持续性大暴雨导致江淮流域特大洪涝灾害.本文分析了降水量与洪涝的分布和演变及其基本大气环流特征,并着重研究了洪涝的主要成因——厄尼诺现象.文中指出.江淮流域的大或特大洪涝,大多发生在厄尼诺事件的同年或次年.厄尼诺、反厄尼诺与北半球低纬100和500hpa大气环流有长达15个月(从同年6月至次年8月)的显著性相关.厄尼诺事件的影响以各种复杂机制,先在低纬作纬向扩展传播.再向中高纬度频散传播.从而对气象与海洋灾害作出严重影响.     

厄尔尼诺灾害的地球动力学解释以及与地质科学的联系

本文从地质力学的理论基础出发,详细地叙述了对厄尔尼诺这一大尺度气象灾害的机制所作的探讨。指出对于地球上任何大尺度的自然现象进行分析、探讨、研究时,都不应忽视地球自转的作用和影响。本文还将海气相互作用与构造体系进行了联系并对全世界地质学与环境生态学界普遍关注的全球海平面变化问题表述了自己的见解。     

THE EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-RELATED DROUGHT ON THE RECOVERY OF ACIDIFIED LAKES

Although SO₂ emissions and deposition rates havedeclined substantially since the implementation of sulphuremission control programmes in North America [1], recovery(measured as decreases in concentrations) of affected lakes in central Ontario has been much less substantial thananticipated based on the decrease in deposition. The slowrecovery is attributed to the reoxidation and release of storedsulphur in catchments. Reduced sulphur retained in previousyears when sulphur deposition was higher is exposed to air andoxidized during severe droughts, then exported duringsubsequent wet periods. Elevated stream concentrations and export rates occur in the autumns of yearswith prolonged severe droughts, particularly in catchments withextensive wetlands. Drought in our study catchments occurred inyears following strong El Niño events. When the SouthernOscillation Index (SOI) was strongly negative (1976–77, 1982–83,1986–87, 1991–92, 1993–94) the frequency of occurrence ofdrought the following summer in small catchments with shallowoverburden was extremely high. A lakes rate of recovery fromacidification depends upon the amount of excess reduced Sthat has been stored in anoxic zones in the catchment (largely afunction of the extent of wetlands) during years of elevated Sdeposition rates, and the frequency and severity of droughts. Iflong-term changes in global or regional climate alter thefrequency or magnitude of El Niño-related droughts, therecovery of acidified lakes will be affected.     

SUWANNEE RIVER LONG RANGE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS BASED ON SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTORS1

ABSTRACT: A study of the influence of climate variability on streamflow in the southeastern United States is presented. Using a methodology previously applied to watersheds in Australia and the United States, a long range streamflow forecast (0 to 9 months in advance) is developed. Persistence (i.e., the previous season's streamflow) and climate predictors of the previous season are used to forecast the following season's (winter and spring) streamflow of the Suwannee River located in northern Florida. The winter and spring streamflow is historically the most likely to have severe flood events due to large scale cyclonic (frontal) storms. Results of the analysis indicated that a strong El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal exists at various lead times to the winter and spring streamflow of the Suwannee River. These results are based on the high correlation values of two commonly used measurements of ENSO strength, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Sea Surface Temperature Range 1. Using the relationships developed between climate and streamflow, a continuous exceedance probability forecast was developed for two Suwannee River stations. The forecast system provided an improved forecast for ENSO years. The ability to predict above normal (flood) or below normal (drought) years can provide communities the necessary lead time to protect life, property, sensitive wetlands, and endangered and threatened species.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON RIVERS: CONSEQUENCES FOR LONG TERM WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Associations between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and temporal variability in flow and 12 water quality variables were assessed at 77 river sites throughout New Zealand over a 13‐year period (1989 through 2001). Trends in water quality were determined for the same period. All 13 variables showed statistically significant linear regression relationships with values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The strongest relationships were for water temperature (mean R²= 0.20), dissolved reactive phosphorus (0.18), and oxidized nitrogen (0.17). The association with SOI varied by climate region. The observed patterns were generally consistent with known ENSO effects on New Zealand rainfall and air temperature. Trends in water quality variables for the periods 1989 through 1993, 1994 through 1998, and 1989 through 1998 were reasonably consistent with trends in SOI, even when the influence of river flow was removed from the data. This suggests that SOI effects on water quality are not necessarily a direct consequence of changes in flow associated with rainfall variation. In addition, both Baseline (32 upstream) and Impact (45 downstream) sites showed similar trends, indicating that changes in management were not directly responsible. We conclude that interpretation of long term water quality datasets in rivers requires that climate variability be fully acknowledged and dealt with explicitly in trend analyses.     

华北降水资源的变化及其与厄尔尼诺的关系

对华北地区１９５１年以来的降水测站记录进行了趋势分析、相关分析和小波分析。发现４７年来,华北夏季和秋季降水都有明显的减少趋势。夏季和年总降水在１９６４年前后发生了一次明显的变化,以后降水显著减少。１９８５年左右,秋季降水也发生了一次显著减少的变化。夏季华北降水变化的周期主要集中于２～４年、８年左右和２０年左右。秋季最突出的周期是２～４年和８年左右。厄尔尼诺对华北降水的变化有重要影响,发生厄尔尼诺时,华北春季降水偏多,夏季和秋季降水显著偏少。冬季关系不显著。发生厄尔尼诺的次年春季,华北降水偏多。     

浙江三门湾沉积记录:U k37表层海水温度和浮游植物群落变化与El Ni?o/La Ni?a的关联

应用三门湾沉积柱样中长链烯酮不饱和指数(U k37)与表层海水温度SST的关系重建历史上的El Ni?o/La Ni?a事件;利用3种浮游植物标志物菜子甾醇(brassicasterol)、甲藻甾醇(dinosterol)和长链烯酮C37(alkenones)来恢复单一种硅藻Diatom、甲藻Dinoflagellates和颗石藻Emiliania huxleyi变化.研究结果表明:(1)U k37估算温度在15.19~17.61℃波动,与当地秋季海水实测温度接近.U k37估算的温度清晰地再现了全球变暖的趋势,且其波动可能与El Ni?o/La Ni?a震荡有关.(2)浮游植物标志物总含量变化范围为710.7~6998.5 ng·g-1,180年以来呈总体上升趋势.沉积记录中硅藻相对比例最高、甲藻次之,硅藻/甲藻比值在2.1~7.2波动,表现出近岸浮游植物对海洋环境变化的敏感性.(3)El Ni?o/La Ni?a事件可影响到浮游植物细胞丰度以及群落结构变化,在El Ni?o盛期,浮游植物细胞丰度剧增,而浮游植物种类数及群集多样性程度明显减少.另外,浮游植物细胞丰度的季节性规律不明显,El Ni?o事件可能是影响三门湾海域浮游植物生产力的主要因素.     

2015/2016年海洋和大气环流异常对中国夏季降水的影响

利用1981年1月-2016年8月中国160个气象站降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR资料,对比分析了2015/2016年的主要海洋和大气环流异常及其对夏季降水的影响。结果表明：1）2015和2016年夏季降水异常分布有着明显的差异。2015年夏季降水呈南多北少特点;2016年夏季降水明显增多,尤其是北方地区,且呈现经向型分布。2）热带印度洋-太平洋海温状况监测显示,2015年海温异常表现为El Niño发展年、热带印度洋全区一致模态海温偏暖、印度洋偶极子正位相;2016年海温异常表现为El Niño结束年、热带印度洋全区一致模态海温偏暖、印度洋偶极子负位相。3）2015年,受热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常影响,使得夏季西太平洋副高偏强、偏南,再配合中高纬冷空气活跃,西风急流轴位置偏南,导致我国降水北少南多。4）2016年,受El Niño衰减、印度洋偶极子负位相影响,副高偏北;叠加印度洋海温偏暖的“充电器”效应,副高偏强;同时冷空气偏北偏弱,西风急流轴位置偏北,导致长江中下游及以北区域降水偏多。     

Fires in tropical forests – what is really the problem? lessons from Indonesia

Fires have attracted interest and generated alarm since the early 1980s. This concern has been particularly evident in tropical forests of Southeast Asia and the Amazon, but disastrous fires in recent summers in Australia, Europe, and the United States have drawn worldwide attention. Concern about forest fires, and related air pollution and biodiversity impacts, led international organisations and northern countries – such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World Bank, and the government of Germany – to undertake fire assessments and provide technical assistance. Nongovernmental organisations, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources and World Wide Fund for Nature, have also devoted increased attention to fires. Aiming at prevention of future fires, 40 fire projects and missions costing well over US$30 million have worked in Indonesia over the last 20 years. Despite the money and effort spent on them, fires continue to burn every year. It may appear to some that efforts to address the ‘fire problem’ have not been effective as fires still occur. There remains a lack of clarity about ‘fire problems’, which has, at times, led to the adoption of policies that may have negative impacts on livelihoods, the environment, and the economy. Two ‘simple’ changes in the way fires are considered would significantly improve fire-related policies and initiatives.