“水污染防治行动计划”实施背景下我国水环境管理优化对策研究

针对我国日益凸显的水资源过度开发、水环境污染、水资源短缺、用水效率与效益低下等水危机,对我国近年来出台最严格水资源管理制度、"水污染防治行动计划"(称"水十条")等水资源管理、水环境保护相关政策与研究进展及国外在水环境管理方面经验进行了探讨。分析了"水十条"实施后在水资源管理、水生态安全、法律法规与执法监管、资金投入与激励机制、技术推进与公众参与等需解决的关键问题与推进重点工作,提出具体措施包括以协作机制优化区域流域水环境管理,完善水权交易并规范绿色投融资体系,创新水文化建设与公众参与模式,优化分区、分级、共治的水环境管理法规与执法支撑体系,强化信息化、集成化的水环境管理与应用等。     

低碳经济下洛阳市生态城市规划研究

"十三五"时期是推动城市向协调、开放、绿色、环保发展的新时期,这对重工业发达的洛阳来说是一个承前启后的时期.近些年来,洛阳市在城市化进程中所产生的城市生态环境问题日益突出.为了适应新时期的发展,文章对当前洛阳市生态城市规划与已有城市规划体系间如何实现有机融合做出思考,指出洛阳市城市规划必须走低碳经济之路,强调在城乡规划,绿色公共交通网络建立,污水管道规划,绿地规划等四个方面树立生态环境标准从而有效实现洛阳市生态城市规划.     

乌鲁木齐市"十二五"期间生物丰度指数变化研究

研究借助计算机监督分类手段,依照《生态环境状况评价技术规范HJ 192-2015》研究了乌鲁木齐市"十二五"期间生物丰度指数(biological richness index,BRI)变化情况.结果表明,乌鲁木齐市"十二五"末建设用地、林地、草地较初期增加16.61%、6.90%、0.57%,未利用地、耕地、水域则减少1.81%、3.31%、5.24%.整体BRI加权值为20.48,较初期下降1.68,其中乌鲁木齐县最高,为27.03,新市区为最低的14.06,总体生物丰度状况略微变差.该研究可为乌鲁木齐市生态环境建设提供依据.     

The National Falls Free™ Initiative, working collaboratively to affect change

Introduction

Since 2004 the National Council on Aging (NCOA) has been working in collaboration with a growing number of national, state, and local organizations through the Falls Free^© Initiative to address the growing public health issue of falls and fall-related injuries among older adults. Through collaborative leadership, evidence-based interventions, practical lifestyle adjustments, and community partnerships we are working to reduce the number of older adult falls.

Impact on industry

The many activities of the national and state coalitions have brought recognition to the issue of fall prevention, education, and training to providers and greater investment in programs and services resulting in tremendous momentum and community activism. While we have yet to realize an impact on rates of falls, this strategic investment in building the infrastructure needed to affect change is the first step toward reducing the growing number of falls among older adults.     

Improving the effectiveness of planning EIA (PEIA) in China: Integrating planning and assessment during the preparation of Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan

The enactment and implementation of the 2003 EIA Law in China institutionalised the role of plan environmental impact assessment (PEIA). While the philosophy, methodology and mechanisms of PEIA have gradually permeated through the various levels of government with a positive effect on the process and outcome of urban planning, only a few cities in China have so far carried out PEIA as a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-type procedure. One such case is the southern city of Shenzhen. During the past three decades, Shenzhen has grown from a small town to a large and booming city as China has successfully and rapidly developed its economy by adopting the “reform and open door” policy. In response to the challenges arising from the generally divergent processes of rapid urbanisation, economic transformation and environment protection, Shenzhen has incrementally adopted the SEA concept in developing the city's Master Urban Plan. As such, this paper reviews the effectiveness of PEIA in three ways:

• • 

  as a tool and process for achieving more sustainable and strategic planning;

• • 

  to determine the level of integration of SEA within the planning system; and,

• • 

  its effectiveness vis-à-vis implementation.

The implementation of PEIA within Shenzhen's Master Urban Plan offers important insights into the emergence of innovative practices in undertaking PEIA as well as theoretical contributions to the field, especially in exploring the relationship between PEIA and SEA and highlighting the central role of local governing institutions in SEA development.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

“大气十条”政策的节能降碳效果评估与创新中介效应

为评估《大气污染防治行动计划》(“大气十条”政策)的节能降碳效果与作用机制,在测度2003～2017年281个地级和以上城市单位地区生产总值能耗和CO₂排放量的基础上,运用双重差分模型探究了“大气十条”政策对节能降碳的影响、创新中介效应和城市异质性.结果表明：(1)“大气十条”政策促进全样本城市能耗强度显著下降17.60%,碳排放强度显著下降19.99%,在通过平行趋势检验、克服内生性和安慰剂、动态时间窗和反事实、三重差分和PSM-DID估计等一系列稳健性检验基础上,上述结论依然成立.(2)机制分析表明,“大气十条”政策通过绿色发明型专利为载体的直接创新中介效应实现节能降碳效果,创新引致的产业结构升级效应的间接创新中介效应实现节能效果.(3)异质性分析表明,“大气十条”政策对煤炭消费大省的节能降碳幅度分别大于非煤炭消费大省0.86%和3.25%;对老工业基地城市的降碳幅度大于非老工业基地36.43%,但节能效果小于非老工业基地8.93%;对非资源型城市的节能降碳幅度分别大于资源型城市31.30%和74.95%.(4)结果显示,须强化煤炭消费大省、老工业基地城市和资...     

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatial Models for Multispecies Conservation Planning and Monitoring

Abstract: Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence–absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site‐level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence–absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad‐scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km² hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning.     

《大气污染防治行动计划》实施对经济与环境的潜在影响

基于全产业链视角,采用资源环境投入产出模型,定量化模拟了在现有产业技术条件下国家《大气污染防治行动计划》(下称《计划》项目)实施对社会经济和资源环境的潜在影响. 结果表明,《计划》项目实施:①将拉动我国GDP累计增加20 570×108元,非农就业岗位累计增加260×104个,起到刺激经济发展、促进社会就业等作用;②将直接带动环保装备制造、建筑安装、综合技术服务、锅炉技术改造以及新能源汽车等相关行业的发展,同时通过产业链关联间接带动金属冶炼压延加工业,化学工业(不含塑料和橡胶,下同),非金属矿物制品业,电力、热力的生产和供应业等传统高耗能、高污染产业的发展;③将累计新增SO₂、NO_x、烟粉尘排放量分别为121.3×104、96.0×104和60.7×104 t,年均新增排放量相当于预期减排能力的3.8%、2.2%、2.2%,主要集中于电力、热力的生产和供应业,金属冶炼压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学工业以及石油加工炼焦核燃料加工业等5个行业;④将累计新增煤炭、水资源消耗量分别为1.6×108和108.2×108 t,二者的年均新增消耗量相当于2010年消耗量的1.05%和0.36%,主要集中于电力、热力的生产和供应业及金属冶炼压延加工业. 未来应加快环保产业发展,不断优化产业结构,进一步提高火电、钢铁等国民经济基础性行业污染治理效率和资源使用效率,从产品供给角度减少大气治理活动对环境的影响.      

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM WATER HYACINTH (Eichhomia crassipes (Mart.) Solms) IN TEXAS RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Water hyacinth, an attractive, floating aquatic plant, poses a substantial threat of unanticipated water loss from Texas reservoirs. A mature plant will lose about three times as much water through evapotranspiration as is lost from evaporation of an equivalent area of open water. The reservoirs of east and southeast Texas, which comprise the bulk of the state's existing and planned water storage capacity, seem likely to suffer a 20 percent average surface infestation of water hyacinth. A coverage that great will result in a yearly net loss of over 2,000,000 acre-feet of impounded water, based on present water development plans for the state. This would amount to nearly 20 percent of the anticipated yield from the reservoirs affected. An effective aquatic plant control program could head off the threat of this significant water loss.