Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

During-incident process assessment in emergency management: Concept and strategy

An incident is normally composed of three stages: pre-incident, during-incident and post-incident. The assessment is a prominent composition in the lifecycle of emergency management for the purpose of quick and effective response. Present-day assessment methods mainly concern the pre-incident risk evaluation and the post-incident loss evaluation. However, during-incident process assessment is of crucial importance to assist the decision-making in emergency response and eventually achieve the goals of emergency management. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of during-incident process assessment and proposes a conceptual model of assessment. Three during-incident process assessment strategies, namely, “mitigability”, “rescuability”, and recoverability are illustrated which quantitatively characterize the evolution of incidents and corresponding responses, and hence contribute to appropriate decisions in practical applications.     

Emergency resources demand prediction using case-based reasoning

The demand prediction on emergency resources is the premise and basis of optimal allocation of emergency resources. Nowadays, there are only few researches on this aspect in China and abroad. For this reason, the paper aims at the characteristics of emergency resource demand prediction and presents a method for emergency resource demand prediction using case-based reasoning (CBR), which is also a method based on risk analysis. This prediction method cannot only provide a basis for emergency resource reserve and allocation in future, but also provide a method and model support for the emergency resources allocation decision-making system to be constructed in future.     

Assessing the impact of household participation on satisfaction and safe design in humanitarian shelter projects

Participation has long been considered important for post‐disaster recovery. Establishing what constitutes participation in post‐disaster shelter projects, however, has remained elusive, and the links between different types of participation and shelter programme outcomes are not well understood. Furthermore, recent case studies suggest that misguided participation strategies may be to blame for failures. This study analysed 19 shelter projects implemented in the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013 to identify the forms of participation employed. Using fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis, it assessed how household participation in the planning, design, and construction phases of shelter reconstruction led to outcomes of household satisfaction and safe shelter design. Participation was operationalised via eight central project tasks, revealing that the involvement of households in the early planning stages of projects and in construction activities were important for satisfaction and design outcomes, whereas engagement during the design phase of projects had little impact on the selected outcomes.     

城市避难场所相关研究进展与展望

在阅读大量国内外文献基础上,对避难场所相关概念进行归纳总结,梳理避难场所相关研究的脉络,分析避难场所相关研究的演变与发展。重点对评价和选址两大研究主题进行深入探讨与归纳总结。已有研究成果较为丰富,但仍存在不足之处。目前,避难场所相关概念较多,尚无共识。已有研究对象多局限于绿地,而对城市中其他能够保障居民灾时安全的开敞空间挖掘不够。空间布局研究较为零散,方法有待更新,评价结果难以深入到城市内部空间结构,且忽略了居民避难行为的影响力。未来应①着力探索高效、规范的识别方法,明确城市中能真正保障居民灾时安全的避难空间;②强化灾害行为学研究,基于居民灾时行为特征进行避难空间评价与选址;③探讨避难空间在大城市蔓延与土地利用系统变化过程中的空间布局、演变特征与驱动力。     

Friends and family vs. government: who does the public rely on more to prepare for natural disasters?

This paper examines what organizations and groups individuals rely on to help prepare for natural disasters and how reliance differs vis-à-vis demographic characteristics. Using data gathered from 2,008 individuals employed in the United States, the results revealed that individuals are significantly more likely to rely on friends and family than government organizations at the local, state, and federal level. The findings also suggest that this reliance varies across demographic groups. For example, data from the present study suggest that women and minority groups as well as individuals who are older and less educated are significantly more likely to rely on organizations to help prepare for natural disasters. This study contributes to the disaster management and risk communication literatures by offering key insights into the organizations and groups the American public in general, and certain demographic groups in particular, rely on when it comes to preparing for natural disasters. Knowledge about the organizations and groups that individuals rely on to help prepare for natural disasters can help policymakers and practitioners target those organizations as conduits to deliver critical preparedness information, as well as other information related to disaster mitigation, response, and recovery.     

应急避难场所建设进度优化模型研究

以规划效率评价为基础,定义了应急避难场所的公益收益,体现在服务性、可达性和安全性3个方面。以全部应急避难场所在整个建设规划期的总公益收益最大化为目标,建立了无偏好和有偏好两类建设进度优化模型,对应急避难场所在规划期内各年的投资额度、建设对象和建设数量进行优化。案例研究结果表明,无偏好模型能最大限度地获得公益收益,但不能很好地表达公众的真实需求;有偏好模型,不可避免会造成一定公益收益损失,但能更多地考虑实际存在的各方面影响因素,更接近真实的决策。实际应用中对模型的选择应根据具体情况确定。     

Anthropometric study of emergency medical services providers (EMSP) in the United States

Introduction: Design of next-generation ambulance patient compartment requires up-to date anthropometric data of emergency medical service providers (EMSP). Currently, no such data exist in the U.S. A large-scale anthropometric study of EMSP in the U.S. were conducted. This report provided the summary statistics (means, standard deviation, and percentiles) of the study’s results and examined the anthropometric differences between the EMSP dataset and the U.S. general population, and between the EMSP dataset and U.S. military personnel dataset, respectively. Method: An anthropometric study of 471 male and 161 female EMSP from across the continental US was conducted, using a sampling strategy that took into account age, sex, and race strata. Results: On average, male EMSP were found to be 18 mm taller and 7 kg heavier than US male general population, and 19 mm taller and 11 kg heavier than US male military personnel. Female EMSP were found to be 25 mm taller than US female general population, and 10 kg heavier than US female military personnel. Conclusions: These results showed that it would be inappropriate to apply general population or military data to the design of next-generation ambulance patient compartment. This new dataset provided the most recent and accurate EMSP anthropometric measurements available in the US. Practical Application: Data from this study provided an invaluable resource for the design of next-generation ambulances in the US.     

Fall-related emergency department visits involving alcohol among older adults

Problem: Falls are the leading cause of injury deaths among adults aged 65 years and older. Characteristics of these falls may vary with alcohol use. Objective: Describe and compare characteristics of older adult fall-related emergency department (ED) visits with indication of alcohol to visits with no indication. Methods: Using nationally-representative 2015 National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program data, we compared demographic characteristics for fall-related ED visits by indication of alcohol consumption. Alcohol-indicated ED visits were matched on age group, sex, treatment month, and treatment day to ED visits with no alcohol indication using a 1:4 ratio and injury characteristics (i.e., diagnosis, body part injured, disposition) were compared. Results and discussion: Of 38,640 ED records, 906 (1.9%) indicated use of alcohol. Fall-related ED visits among women were less likely to indicate alcohol (1.0%) compared to ED visits among men (3.8%). ED visits indicating alcohol decreased with age from 4.1% for those 65–74 years to 1.5% for those 75–84 and <1% for those 85+. After controlling for age-group, sex, and month and day of treatment, 17.0% of ED visits with no alcohol indication had a traumatic brain injury compared to 34.8% of alcohol-indicated ED visits. Practical applications: Alcohol-indicated fall ED visits resulted in more severe head injury than those that did not indicate alcohol. To determine whether alcohol use should be part of clinical risk assessment for older adult falls, more routinely collected data and detailed information on the amount of alcohol consumed at the time of the fall are needed.     

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.