汶川特大地震环境应急监测回顾与思考

以汶川特大地震后成都市环境应急监测为案例,在回顾历时近3个月的环境应急监测基础上,围绕应急监测组织体系、方案制定、能力建设等内容进行了分析并提出了建议,旨在对建立我国应对特大自然灾害或环境污染事故的环境应急监测预警体系进行初探。     

突发性环境污染事故应急监测研究进展

主要综述了应急监测标准体系、应急监测技术方法、应急监测质控技术、应急决策系统4个方面的研究进展及其存在的问题,并提出了突发性环境污染事故应急监测的重点研究内容。     

浅谈环境预警应急指挥中心的构建与运作

从污染事故环境预警应急工作出发,结合当前环境监测和环境监察的职能,提出了环境预警应急指挥中心的构建要素、主要职能和核心任务,建议形成协调统一的组织管理模式、各有侧重的发展建设模式、平战结合的集约运作模式、优势互补的技术支撑模式,以及说清环境的解析问题模式.     

世博会期间滇池草海蓝藻清除应急措施

为确保世博会期间滇池草海水体及旅游景观得到明显改善,对滇池敏感水域实施蓝藻清除应急措施。该项目在水资源调控措施、其他污染综合治理工程及行政管理措施的协同作用下,针对各应急区不同的污染特征,采用多种药剂净化、机械除藻、水域围隔、凤眼莲景观化等各种应急措施,以确保达到世博会期间滇池草海及外海北部敏感水域水体及旅游景观明显改善的目标。      

Participative multi-actor safety screening of infrastructures

Infrastructure planning very often underestimates safety issues in the early design phase. The reason for this is not necessarily the overwhelming importance of other aspects, such as functionality and economic considerations. Rather, the controversial views on safety held by different safety experts accounts for the major reason for not attributing safety the importance it deserves. In this paper we propose a seven-step methodology that allows multiple decision makers to evaluate infrastructure alternatives using safety and other indicators in early project phases. The methodology is based on analytic risk assessments, where the decision makers are asked to make ordinal tradeoffs among different safety, economic, and subjective aspects. The methodology allows multiple decision makers to aggregate preferences for different alternatives evaluated by different decision makers in a participative fashion. The proposed methodology was implemented in the Multimedia Group Decision Support Room at Delft University of Technology. The methodology was validated using real decision makers to show its realism and potential for participative decision making in safety planning.     

基于有界数据包络分析(DEA)模型的应急避难场所效率评价

应用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,针对应急避难场所规划建设和运营维护两种情况,分别建立以建设成本和运营成本为输入指标,以服务性、可达性、安全性为输出指标的效率评价指标体系,并选择有界DEA模型,分层次对应急避难场所的投入产出效率进行评价。实证案例表明,临时和中长期避难场所比短期避难场所更容易获得较高的DEA效率;位于区域内部、交通便利的应急避难场所DEA效率较高;提高应急避难场所的综合利用水平,更有利于提高其DEA效率。     

The effect of improved nowcasting of precipitation on air quality modeling

The predictive potential of air quality models and thus their value in emergency management and public health support are critically dependent on the quality of their meteorological inputs. The atmospheric flow is the primary cause of the dispersion of airborne substances. The scavenging of pollutants by cloud particles and precipitation is an important sink of atmospheric pollution and subsequently determines the spatial distribution of the deposition of pollutants. The long-standing problem of the spin-up of clouds and precipitation in numerical weather prediction models limits the accuracy of the prediction of short-range dispersion and deposition from local sources. The resulting errors in the atmospheric concentration of pollutants also affect the initial conditions for the calculation of the long-range transport of these pollutants. Customary the spin-up problem is avoided by only using NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) forecasts with a lead time greater than the spin-up time of the model. Due to the increase of uncertainty with forecast range this reduces the quality of the associated forecasts of the atmospheric flow.In this article recent improvements through diabatic initialization in the spin-up of large-scale precipitation in the Hirlam NWP model are discussed. In a synthetic example using a puff dispersion model the effect is demonstrated of these improvements on the deposition and dispersion of pollutants with a high scavenging coefficient, such as sulphur, and a low scavenging coefficient, such as cesium-137. The analysis presented in this article leads to the conclusion that, at least for situations where large-scale precipitation dominates, the improved model has a limited spin-up so that its full forecast range can be used. The implication for dispersion modeling is that the improved model is particularly useful for short-range forecasts and the calculation of local deposition. The sensitivity of the hydrological processes to proper initialization implies that the spin-up problem may reoccur with changes in the model and increased model resolution. Spin-up should be an ongoing concern for atmospheric modelers.     

VTOL aircraft in emergency planning and management: a model for a helipad network

The scientific literature regarding HEMS (Helicopter Emergency Medical Service) planning lacks a method for defining optimal sites for helipads that takes into account risk distribution and hospital location. Such a method could minimise overall rescue time in emergency situations. In this paper a method that supports the decisions taken by disaster planners and managers is developed, focusing on the quantification of necessary air resources for the management of some probable calamities. Given a region characterised by a natural and non-natural disaster risk map, along with a comprehensive transport system (also characterised by a risk map), a set of emergency destinations (hospitals), a set of heliports/helipads dislocated on the territory and a number of available HEMS rotorcraft, the aim of the paper is to assess the adequacy of the VTOL/FATO (Vertical Take-Off and Landing/Final Take-Off and Landing Area) system in order to deal with a set of possible emergencies.     

中山市城区避震疏散场所规划

当地震来临时,快速及时地将人员疏散到安全地带,能大大减少人员伤亡。因此,在地震频发、城市人口不断集中的今天,各城市应事先建设好避震疏散场所。通过对影响避震疏散场所选择的中山市城区地质构造背景与场地条件、以区为单位需安置人口数量、医疗救护点、易燃易爆危险源、避震疏散通道分布等要素的分析,并在野外勘查的基础上,参照关于建设避震疏散场所的规范和标准,对中山市城区避震疏散场所进行了规划。所规划的避震疏散场所安全可靠、布局合理,能够满足中山市城区的应急疏散需要。     

突发性环境污染事件应急监测演练的策划与实施

近年来,突发性环境污染事件的频繁发生,对社会造成了极大的危害。为了提高环境监测部门开展应急监测的综合能力和实战水平,建立健全应急监测制度和运行机制,检验环境应急监测预案的科学性、响应的及时性、数据的准确性和报告的可行性,各地环保部门开展了一系列应急监测演练活动。本文就环境应急监测演练策划和设计进行了全过程的分析,并按照实战的要求对演练实施过程中的重要环节进行了总结研究。