Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases

In most OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is very dependent on a trained workforce of emergency services volunteers: fire, rescue, medical, care and relief. With its large area, sparsely settled population, and frequent periods of low rainfall, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by wildfires. There are an estimated 220,000 rural fire volunteers (in a population of 20 million) in eight state and territory volunteer rural fire services. These fire services have experienced significant decreases in volunteer numbers over the past decade, a trend which is true also of North American volunteer fire services. An investigation suggests that the decrease is driven by two related sets of factors: economic and demographic. Globalisation and deregulation of the economy, and technological innovation, have resulted in structural changes in the nature of work: privatisation, casualisation, self-employment, and demands for increased productivity. These factors make it more difficult for members of communities to volunteer, regardless of their motivation to do so. Further, like many other OECD countries, Australia's birth rate has fallen over the last three decades, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the population aged between 25 and 45 years—a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. These economic and demographic changes make it difficult for Australian volunteer rural fire agencies to meet their community protection responsibilities. Responding to these challenges may require radical changes in the way that these fire services are organised and supported.     

An emergency response plan for cascading post-earthquake fires in fuel storage facilities

Natural disasters such as large earthquakes may rapidly result in cascading events such as post-earthquake fires (PEFs) to trigger. This is particularly the case in industrial facilities which is well known as natural-hazard triggered technological accidents (NaTechs). This study provides a response framework for NaTechs caused by earthquake in fuel storage facilities. To do this, seismic vulnerability of fuel storage tanks and possible damage fashions are studied. Considering fuel leakages can result in PEFs, possible scenarios are simulated numerically using Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool (PHAST). A case study including 20 fuel tanks adjacent one to another is investigated to simulate a domino effect when different arbitrary tanks start to ignite; hence, the worst case scenario can be determined. Based on the results of the case studied, inability to extinguish the possible PEFs over less than 9 min can lead to spreading them to the adjacent tanks. The results indicate that it takes about 40 min the adjacent tanks involve in the fires. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to provide an emergency response plan in advance to properly respond to the fires. The study here also highlights the role of preventive strategies in reducing the associated risks of PEFs in industrial facilities.     

基于居民视角的应急避难所优化配置研究

以虚拟区域和哈尔滨市道里区经纬街为研究区，以满足居民避难需求为目标，分别构建居民避难行动效率模型与应急避难所服务范围模型，并将二者进行耦合。先以虚拟区域说明利用耦合模型的适用性与可行性，再以研究区探讨居民避难所效率与应急避难所优化配置。研究结果表明:研究区现状应急避难所配置，在研究区有2处是应急避难所服务无法覆盖的范围。以耦合模型为基础，确定需要增加2个应急避难所，才能满足居民避难需求。该研究方法不仅为我国应急避难所优化配置理论与方法作了补充，其结果也为研究区及其他地区应急避难所优化配置提供了参考依据。     

基于Arcgis engine和Matlab的避难场所选址系统开发及应用

针对现有避难场所选址需要多种工具配合、操作步骤繁杂和工作量大的问题,开发了基于Arcgis engine和Matlab的避难场所选址系统。通过Arcgis engine实现避难场所选址所需的定制系统界面、空间数据管理、最短路径分析、缓冲区分析和voronoi图分析等GIS功能。通过Matlab构建多目标加权灰靶决策法和熵值权重法模型,实现避难场所选址功能。应用COM组件技术实现Arcgis Engine和matlab的集成。以泉州市中心城区为例,应用该系统进行应急避难场所选址决策分析。结果表明,该系统可以满足泉州市的应急避难场所选址及布局分析需求。     

A transportation-location problem model for pedestrian evacuation in chemical industrial parks disasters

A successful emergency management for chemical industrial parks (CIPs) accidents includes the route and shelter selection. Both of them are based on the collection of chemicals, atmosphere, geographic and population databases of CIPs. This decision process can be considered as a kind of transportation-location problem (TLP). In this paper, a conceptual model of emergency decision system for TLP of CIPs has been reported and a new multi-objective TLP model of pedestrian evacuation has also been proposed. The model includes sub-criteria, and the affected areas are categorized into a priority hierarchy based on human vulnerability model (HVM). The model can be used to design shelter places and guide the evacuation of the affected people. Besides, it can maximize the total time satisfaction level of evacuees combined with the routes passable probabilities. Finally, a case study shows that this model is flexible and applicable to various scenarios and risk measures.     

环境风险预警方法与应急成套装备的应用展望

介绍了环境风险预警方法建立的环境风险预警指标体系、环境风险源管理平台、环境风险源风险评估技术方法以及模块式应急成套装备的技术特点等;分析了环境风险预警方法与应急成套设备在危险化学品环境风险与应急管理,在区域大气环境挥发性有机污染物(VOCs)监控预警等方面的实际需求。面临现实的环境风险状况从环境风险防控与应急工程技术研究中心建设角度提出了需进一步完善、开发的环境风险预测预警技术与应急成套装备等新思路。     

有机微污染水磁混凝处理试验研究

实验以取自浙江湖州有机微污染水作为研究对象,研究了PAC,PFS,PAFC,KAl(SO4)2及FeCl3等常用混凝剂对该有机微污染水的CODMn的去除效果,结果表明PAC为处理该有机微污染水的最佳混凝剂,最佳投加量为30 mg/L。同时还研究了加载磁粉对有机微污染水混凝处理效果的影响,结果表明加载磁粉粒径为45μm,投加量为30 mg/L时,同一原水的CODMn去除率从常规混凝的39.3%提高到45.6%,且加载磁粉后大大缩短了混凝沉淀时间,符合微污染水源的应急处理要求,最佳投放顺序为：“磁粉+PAC+PAM”。     

“空地一体化”环境应急监测与管理系统设计

在总结我国环境应急管理体系建设现状的基础上,提出了"空地一体化"的环境应急监测与管理体系的框架和功能设计,介绍了引入无人机监测系统对环境应急体系的功能改进。最后从无人机机载传感器、"空地一体化"数据分析处理和通讯保障3个维度对关键技术的选择问题进行了探讨,分析了其现状、技术难点与发展趋势,以期为现代化的环境应急体系建设提供有益的参考。     

Observation study of pedestrian flow on staircases with different dimensions under normal and emergency conditions

Compared with horizontal motion, there were several characteristics in staircase movement. This study focused on the movement characteristics in staircases of typical student crowds and the quantitative relations of flow rate-speed-density in different dimensions of staircases and different circumstances were obtained. Basic data concerning daily movement when classes were over and an evacuation drill for college students was collected through analysis of video observation. From the analysis, the following conclusions can be given: some typical characteristics of pedestrian movement in staircases were found, such as queuing behavior at platform, merging flow at staircase entrance, and subgroup behavior. Movement on stairs was markedly slower than the horizontal motions. In normal condition, the number and initial speed of students entering the staircase affected observably the pedestrians flow, and the impact of staircase attributes (riser, tread, slope, etc.) cannot be neglected. In different conditions, the characteristics of pedestrian movement were quite different, and the influence of the speed on the density was more significant in the emergency condition. The study highlighted the amassment phenomenon at the bottom of the staircase and the potential influence of stair widths to evacuation efficiency in evacuation drill.