基于改进DEA交叉效率模型的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价

为了评价洪水灾害区域脆弱性,提出了应用改进DEA交叉效率模型和熵权法相结合的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价方法。首先,在洪灾形成理论的基础上,构建洪灾区域脆弱性指标体系和评价标准;其次,应用改进DEA交叉效率模型计算不同区域的成灾效率,利用熵权法计算权重集结全局成灾效率。根据成灾效率的实际意义分析不同区域脆弱性的相对大小。最后,选取我国各省份洪灾作为实证分析的研究对象。研究结果表明:该方法能够准确评价区域洪灾脆弱性程度,评价结果与实际情况一致,具有较好的适用性。     

汶川地震极重灾区地形起伏度特征及其与生态环境受损关联分析

采用DEM数据对汶川地震极重灾区地形起伏度特征分析,海拔高度和地形起伏度总体上是南西高,北东低。5km×5km单元地形起伏度〉1000m的区域面积占27．98％。0．5km×0．5km单元〉100m的区域面积占50．63％。在8．0级主震和6．4级余震震中之间典型区段剖面0．5km间隔分析中,南西段起伏度大于北东段,南西段起伏度〉200m区段占全段14．84％,北东段仅占6．64％。地震导致生态环境受损程度的差异与地形起伏度的差异在空间分布上有一定的重合,具有高起伏度的南西段生态系统破坏面积占总破坏面积的88．55％,新增水土流失面积占新增总面积的70．99％。地震灾区地形起伏度是生态环境遭受严重破坏致灾关联因素之一。     

尖点突变模型在研究洪水引起环境突变中的应用

以1998年霍林河特大洪水为例，在进行洪水对环境影响作用分析的基础上，将洪水发生的危险系数、地面高程、地形坡度、降雨影响程度、土地盐碱率和草地开垦率6个控制变量划分为两个主分量。由于洪水引起的环境突变可以归纳为一种耦合突变，我们采用尖点突变模型进行求解，得出各主分量的数学表达式和水环境突变区域边界，绘制了该流域环境突变分区图，论证了应用尖点突变模型研究环境突变的合理性。     

极端温度下帐篷内部热环境适应性实验及模拟研究*

为揭示民用救灾帐篷热环境适应性变化规律,通过大尺度环境气候舱构建高温与低温环境,采用Ansys Fluent商用软件代码进行仿真验证,并对帐篷蓬围结构和内部热环境分布变化规律进行实验与数值模拟。研究结果表明:使用大尺度环境舱直接进行模拟帐篷内外热环境变化可行,其内部热环境变化规律与实验基本一致;帐篷特殊的篷围结构导致高温环境下帐篷内部温度高于外界,帐内人员头部和脚部温差可达5 ℃,低温环境下帐篷同一高度横向区域温度对称分布,在中心区域温度较低,边缘和中心温差近8 ℃。     

试论我国城市应急软能力提升路径——基于2016年武汉洪涝灾害的理性思考

城市应急能力建设是保障城市公共安全的关键环节。当前我国城市应急能力建设重“硬件”轻“软件”,导致在城市灾害应对过程中效果不佳。选取受2016年南方洪涝影响严重的武汉市作为研究对象,对城市内涝灾害治理过程中应急“软能力”的现状及功能进行剖析,提出在制度适应、风险管理以及理念协调等方面的重构思想,并论述城市应急“软能力”的提升路径:建立健全防灾导向的城市规划制度,推进协同导向的城市灾害风险管理,加强完善教育导向的城市灾害文化建设。     

长江口颗粒态金属污染物时空分布规律分析

长江口金属污染物的输移转化受到多种因素作用的制约,其时空分布比较复杂.2006年洪、枯季长江口南槽和北槽调查研究表明:(1)悬沙中各种金属含量在长江口的沿程分布略有差异,除Cu、Cd沿程出现降低趋势外,其它金属均有低-高-低分布趋势,即在南槽、北槽最大浑浊带出现高值;而沉积物中颗粒态金属含量沿程分布较为复杂,沿程呈降低趋势,部分金属在南槽、北槽出现高值区;(2)颗粒态金属含量垂向分布十分明显,由表层悬沙至底泥逐渐减少;(3)悬沙中枯季金属含量明显高于洪季,在一个潮周期内急流时颗粒态金属含量小于憩流时金属含量.     

Arts as a vehicle for community building and post‐disaster development

Use of the arts in international aid is common in an ad hoc form, but it has not been systematically theorised or evaluated. The arts have the potential to be a culturally contextualised and sustainable intervention for adults and children in the aftermath of war or disaster. On the micro level, the arts are a method to enable the retrieval and reprocessing of traumatic memories that are often encoded in images rather than in words. On a macro level, they can help to reconstruct a group narrative of a disaster as well as mobilise people back into control of their lives. This paper researches a long‐term project using arts in Sri Lanka following the civil war and tsunami. A central finding is the need to understand arts within their cultural context, and their usefulness in strengthening the voices and problem‐solving capacities of the victims of the disaster.     

Enhancing community-based disaster preparedness with information technology

A critical component of community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) is a local resource database of suppliers providing physical, information and human resources for use in disaster response. Maintenance of such a database can become a collaborative responsibility among community-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and public and private community organisations. In addition to mobilising resources, this process raises awareness within the community and aids in assessing local knowledge and resources. This paper presents the results of a pilot study on implementing a community-based resource database through collaboration with local American Red Cross chapters and public and private community organisations. The design of the resource database is described. The resource database is accessible via the internet and offline using laptops and handheld Personal Digital Assistants. The study concludes that CBDP is strengthened through a combination of appropriate information technology and collaborative relationships between NGOs and community-based organisations.     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

The impact of the 2004 tsunami on coastal Thai communities: assessing adaptive capacity

The suddenness and scale of the 26 December 2004 tsunami and the challenges posed to affected communities highlighted the benefits of their members having a capacity to confront and adapt to the consequences of such a disaster. Research into adaptive capacity or resilience has been conducted almost exclusively with Western populations. This paper describes an exploratory study of the potential of a measure of collective efficacy developed for Western populations to predict the capacity of members of a collective society, Thai citizens affected by the 2004 tsunami, to confront effectively the recovery demands associated with this disaster. Following a demonstration that this measure could predict adaptive capacity, the role of religious affiliation, ethnicity and place of residence in sustaining collective efficacy is discussed. The implications of the findings for future research on, and intervention to develop, adaptive capacity among Thai citizens in particular and collectivist societies in general are discussed.