基于LMDI中国省域氮氧化物减排与实现路径研究

首先基于Kaya恒等式,利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型(LMDI法)将氮氧化物排放分解为排放因子、能源强度、经济结构、能源结构和经济发展5个因素;其次通过模型得出的脱钩系数运用构建四象限法评价"十二五"期间中国30个省市脱钩空间差异,研究各省市氮氧化物减排表现、分析减排潜力和减排影响因素,为国家"十三五"制定差异化的区域氮氧化物减排目标和寻找多元化的氮氧化物减排途径提供有益参考.研究结果表明:经济增长是促进氮氧化物排放量增加的决定因素,能源强度降低是抑制氮氧化物增排的决定因素,经济结构优化和能源结构调整具有较大促进氮氧化物减排潜力;中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩空间分异明显,大部分省市经济发展与氮氧化物排放处于脱钩状态,部分省市弱脱钩状态.同时,中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数呈现逐年上升趋势,2010—2015年中国各省市氮氧化物排放脱钩空间分布由较弱、中脱钩为主至中、较强脱钩为主再到较强脱钩为主,呈现区域间"异质化"和区域内"均质化"的趋势.国家氮氧化物后续减排任务应多分解在中脱钩或弱脱钩(减排潜力大)省市,对相邻的省份制定协同减排计划,且主要通过提高能源利用效率、同时优化经济结构和能源消费结构实现其最优减排.     

滇西北剑湖沉积物磷形态、空间分布及释放贡献

采用连续分级提取法提取了剑湖沉积物中弱吸附态磷(NH_4Cl-P)、可还原态磷(BD-P)、铁铝氧化态磷(NaOH-rP)、有机质结合态磷(NaOH-nrP)、钙结合态磷(HCl-P)和残渣态磷(Res-P)6种形态的磷,并对表层(0~10 cm)沉积物磷形态水平空间分布、沉积柱芯(0~75 cm)磷形态垂向空间分布和释放贡献特征进行了分析.结果表明:表层沉积物6种磷形态平均含量差别较大,其含量由高到低排序为HCl-PRes-PNaOH-rPNaOH-nrPBD-PNH_4Cl-P;HCl-P含量是NH_4Cl-P的72倍,3种稳定磷形态(HCl-P、Res-P和NaOH-rP)含量是3种潜在可移动磷形态(NaOH-nrP、BD-P和NH_4Cl-P)含量的6.5倍.NH_4Cl-P、BD-P、NaOH-nrP和NaOH-rP含量的变异系数明显高于HCl-P和Res-P含量的变异系数.尽管表层沉积物6种磷形态的水平空间分布特征不尽相同,4条主要入湖河流入湖口区6种磷形态含量平均值之和是湖周浅水区的1.40倍,但能指示出入湖河流是外源磷污染物输入的主要通道.虽然沉积柱芯6种磷形态垂向空间分布特征各异,6种磷形态入湖口区表层平均含量分别是底层的1.60、1.87、1.87、1.61、1.18和1.15倍,其他湖区表层平均含量分别是底层的1.18、1.34、1.39、1.41、0.97和0.83倍,但除HCl-P和Res-P在其他湖区为随深度增加而缓慢递增外,基本上能反映出6种磷形态含量在入湖口区随深度增加而递减的程度都远强于其他湖区.外源磷输入和人为活动影响是3种潜在可移动磷形态和NaOH-rP的主要因素,流域地质背景是HCl-P和Res-P的主要影响因素.6种磷形态在入湖口区快释放贡献率多为负值,表示以滞留状态为主,慢释放贡献率全为正值,表示都为释放状态,滞留贡献最大和释放贡献最大的都是NaOH-rP;其他湖区快释放贡献率和慢释放贡献率多为正值,表示都以释放状态为主,NaOH-rP释放贡献最大,Res-P滞留贡献最大.     

基于多年遥感数据分析长江河口海岸带湿地变化及其驱动因子

研究河口海岸带湿地长时间演变对湿地保护管理和海岸带资源评估具有重要意义.本文获取长江口1979—2015年10景Landsat-MSS/TM/OLI影像和2015年13景GF1-PMS高空间分辨率数据,对比两个典型实验区分类算法,选用最优的决策树算法应用到长江口Landsat影像中,得到沿岸湿地要素近40年的面积变化情况.研究表明,2015年长江河口海岸带湿地总面积为4725 km2,自然湿地占63.5%,人工湿地占21.2%,湿地总面积相比1979年增加了662 km2,自然湿地面积减少了163 km2,而人工湿地面积增加了766 km2.长江口自然湿地面积在1979—2000年减少幅度较大,2000年后由于保护管理加强而减少幅度变小;人工湿地和建筑面积增加较为明显,主要是由于大型水库的修建和人工鱼塘开发及港口建设.湿地总的变化趋势为河口区不断淤积,自然湿地转变为人工湿地,人工湿地转变为建筑用地等非湿地;其中,滩涂面积减少283 km2,水库、养殖鱼塘和水稻田面积分别增加了92、355和319 km2,主要发生在崇明东滩和启东沿岸;非湿地中建筑用地面积增加154 km2,灌木草场面积减少147 km2,主要发生在上海和启东沿岸.同时比较分析长江口3个区域湿地驱动因子发现,北岸启东沿岸和南岸南汇东滩湿地因经济快速发展和港口水利工程修建,以及过度开垦滩涂等自然湿地使人工湿地增加明显;而长江上游径流量、区域降水和海平面上涨等自然因素控制着中支河道区(如崇明东滩)自然湿地的变化.     

排土场稳定性影响因素显著性研究

为提升排土场稳定性,以某露天煤矿排土场为例,结合正交试验和强度折减法,开展排土场稳定性影响因素显著性研究.通过分析资料与野外调研,厘定典型排土场稳定性诱发因素,构建排土场真三维地质模型,反演验证和分析排土场的岩土体参数和变形规律特征,得出排土场边坡内部应力和位移的变化特征以及塑性破坏区分布范围;以真三维网格模型中最危险...     

建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

挥发性油藏回注气井控因素分析及措施

文章明确了挥发性油藏天然气回注井控的安全环保关键因素;量化了低渗挥发性油藏天然气回注注入能力,确定注入端各节点安全生产压力分布,攻关相关配套工艺设备,实现安全有效注入;开展室内实验和PVT相态拟合,分析注天然气后天然气和原油性质变化规律,创新非混相驱组分数值模拟参数优化方法,开展带人工压裂裂缝的组分数值模拟,精准确定压力场分布,降低计量及监测不准带来的安全隐患;明确注气井气窜影响因素,优化注采参数,抑制油井气窜,降低生产风险,实现井控安全情况下的天然气驱环保高效开发。     

Fatal pedestrian crashes on interstates and other freeways in the United States

Introduction: More than 800 pedestrians die annually in crashes on interstates and other freeways in the United States, but few studies have examined their characteristics. Method: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System on pedestrians fatally injured during 2015–2017 were analyzed. Chi-square tests compared characteristics of pedestrians killed on interstates and other freeways with those that died on other roads, and across crash types among freeway deaths. Land use characteristics of locations where pedestrians were killed while crossing freeways in a large state (California) were identified using Google Earth. Results: A larger proportion of pedestrians killed on freeways died on dark and unlit roads (48% vs. 32%), were male (78% vs. 68%), or were ages 20–44 (55% vs. 32%) compared with pedestrians killed on other roads. Crossing (42%) was the most common crash type among pedestrian deaths on freeways, followed by disabled-vehicle-related crashes (18%). Pedestrians who died while crossing more often had blood alcohol concentrations ≥ 0.08 g/dL (40%) than those in disabled-vehicle-related (22%) or other crashes (34%). Deaths in crossing crashes were more likely than other freeway deaths to occur on urban roads (81%), at speed limits ≤50 mph (13%), or between 18:00 and 23:59 (49%), and 58% of crossing crashes analyzed for land use were located between residential and other (e.g., commercial, recreational) uses. Over a third (37%) of deaths in disabled-vehicle-related crashes occurred at speed limits ≥70 mph. Conclusions: A surprising proportion of pedestrian deaths occur on controlled-access roads not designed for walking. Countermeasures for these crashes need to be implemented to see meaningful reductions in pedestrian fatalities overall. Practical applications: Improving roadway and vehicle lighting, requiring reflective warning devices for marking disabled vehicles, constructing pedestrian overpasses and underpasses in areas frequently crossed, and promoting alternative means of traveling between residential and commercial areas could help.     

基于改进的SPAR-H化工实验室人因可靠性分析

近年来化工实验室事故屡禁不止,其中人的不安全行为是导致事故发生的主要原因.为评估实验人员可靠性,进一步管控化工实验室人的不安全行为,基于标准化工厂人因可靠性分析(SPAR-H)方法,结合化工实验室人因失误的特点,确定了更加适用于化工实验室的人因可靠性分析方法.首先依据"S-O-P"认知模型对人因失误类型进行划分;然后基...     

Monitoring of a Coastal Mediterranean Area: Culturable Bacteria, Phytoplankton, Environmental Factors and their Relationships in the Southern Adriatic Sea

Culturable heterotrophic bacterial and phytoplanktonic densities were investigated at four sites in the Southern Adriatic Sea (Brindisi, S. Cataldo, Otranto and S. M. di Leuca) over an annual cycle. The main phytoplankton groups, the bacterial biodiversity, as well as the faecal contamination indicators were determined. Culturable bacterial numbers averaged 4.8 ± 0.2 log CFU ml⁻¹ whereas phytoplankton numbers averaged 2.1 ± 0.4 log cells ml⁻¹. Relationships between culturable bacteria, phytoplankton and the environmental factors were established. Bacterial and phytoplankton densities usually depended significantly on temperature, dissolved oxygen, phosphate and nitrite only in the S. Cataldo transect. In all the examined transects phytoplankton showed a bloom during the January–February period followed by a bacterial peak during the February–March period. Thus we can suppose that the phytoplankton winter bloom is responsible for the availabily of organic matter for bacterial populations in the following months in this oligotrophic ecosystem.     

Assessing Respiratory Morbidity Through Pollution Status and Meteorological Conditions for Delhi

The study focuses on assessing the status of respiratory morbidity in Delhi over a four years period from 2000–2003. An attempt was made to investigate the role of important pollutants (SO₂, NO₂, SPM and RSPM) and various meteorological factors (temperature minimum & maximum, relative humidity at 0830 and 1730 hrs. and wind speed) in being responsible for respiratory admissions on account of COPD, asthma and emphysema. The study showed that winter months had greater exposure risk as pollutants often get trapped in the lower layers of atmosphere resulting in high concentrations. Statistical analysis revealed that two pollutants have significant positive correlation with the number of COPD cases viz., SPM (r = 0.474; p < 0.01) and RSPM (r = 0.353; p < 0.05), while a meteorological factor temperature (minimum) has a significant negative correlation (r = −0.318; p < 0.05) with COPD. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed for COPD as dependent variable and R² value of 0.33 was obtained indicating that SPM and RH(1730) were able to explain 33 percent variability in COPD. The partial correlation of SPM and RH(1730) on COPD was higher than any other combination and therefore they can be regarded as important contributing variables on COPD.