气象灾害系统组成及评估理论体系探讨

结合国内外相关领域的研究情况,对气象灾害、孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体等重要概念下了较明确的定义,介绍了孕灾环境危险度这一度量孕灾环境灾害风险的概念,并对承灾体脆弱性、致灾因子强度等用以评估气象灾害的重要参数进行了初步研究,指出灾情是成灾后气象灾害系统的综合状态.最后建立了较完整的气象灾害评估理论体系.     

衡阳市降水型地质灾害潜势预报预警方法初探

为提高衡阳市降水型地质灾害预报预警的针对性和时效性,本文利用1994—2007年衡阳市地质灾害个例资料和相应的降水资料,分析了地质灾害与降水的关系;划分了地质灾害易发区,并针对不同易发区确定了降水型地质灾害预报预警指标;对预报预警方法进行检验,并提出了改善建议。结果显示:衡阳市降水型地质灾害与前期降水强度、当日降水量等有着密切关系;建立的预报预警方法对衡阳市暴雨突发性地质灾害预报具有较好的地域针对性和准确性,将预报时效延长至24小时,对地质灾害的防御有着重要的现实意义。     

基于体制视角的煤矿矿难成因及对策研究

对国内外煤矿安全事故的成因进行回顾。通过理论与实践研究发现,影响我国煤矿矿难发生的各项因素只是表象,其更深层次的原因是体制层面的问题。分别从计划经济体制、市场经济体制以及双重体制角度对我国煤矿矿难的成因进行分析,指出计划经济体制导致了煤矿企业积极性不高和安全投入不足;以市场资源配置和利益驱动为导向的市场经济体制使得煤矿企业人才严重缺乏、超能力生产严重、安全管理不严和违规操作频发;双重经济体制共同作用引致了我国煤矿行业的监管不力。针对体制对我国煤矿带来的问题,分别从管理机制、安全投入、福利待遇和监管体制等方面给出治理煤矿矿难的政策建议和意见。     

某水电站联合调度中心建设用地地质灾害危险性评估研究

通过分析水电站联合调度中心建设用地滑坡形成的原因,对建设用地场区可能出现的3种工况进行了稳定性评价。结果表明:Ⅰ区的地质灾害危险性中等,Ⅱ区的地质灾害危险性小。总体来说,该场址区不存在严重的地质缺陷和工程难以有效控制的地质灾害,整个建设用地的使用是适宜的。但是,需要对其后侧斜坡进行有效治理。     

城域突发事故灾害发生机理探索

城域突发事故灾害发生机理涉及事故灾害致因、演化过程、发展规律3个主要方面;从典型事故致因理论入手,探索城域突发事故灾害致因有本质原因、基础原因和直接原因;事故致因要素之间的综合作用是城域突发事故灾害发生机理研究的关键,可考虑建立与之对应的数学模型,运用突变理论,对演化过程进行分析,指出城域突发事故灾害演化是一个流变-突变过程,并满足尖点突变模型,引发因素和控制因素两个参数决定事故状态的变化;总结城域突发事故灾害的发展规律,指出城域突发事故灾害沿链条传递,并呈现一定周期性,研究成果可为事故灾害的预防与控制提供借鉴。     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Foundations of community disaster resilience: well-being,identity, services,and capitals

If community disaster resilience is to mature into a robust and lasting area of research, methodologically facilitated dialogue between empirical observations and theory is necessary. However, methodological and empirical research has outpaced community disaster resilience theory. To address this gap, a theoretical framework called WISC is presented. WISC is named after four constructs of the framework: well-being, identity, services, and capitals. WISC relates the two concepts of community and infrastructure, broadly defined, to the four constructs it is named after. The 4 constructs are respectively defined by 29 variables. The broadest interpretation of WISC is that infrastructure supports and facilitates components of community within human settlements. Infrastructure is represented as combinations of capitals and services; community is represented by connections of identity and well-being. Ultimately, well-being of a community is dependent on that community's collective capital. But these two constructs are mediated by the intervening constructs of identity and services. WISC goes beyond existing frameworks by addressing essential elements of theory building that have been overlooked in the literature, while synthesizing other frameworks and areas of knowledge. WISC provides a powerful foundation for posing and evaluating hypotheses, improving data collection efforts, and, most importantly, enabling critical theory building.     

The influence of caste,class and gender in surviving multiple disasters: A case study from Orissa,India

Sociological and anthropological studies in India reveal that caste, class and gender in everyday life are both rigid and dynamic, but little is known about how they influence the survival mechanisms of women during ‘multiple disasters’, nor about how women negotiate with these structural mores to meet their cultural and biological needs. This is explored through the experiences of 12 women-headed households from different social castes in Orissa, India. Multiple disasters or disasters that occur in ‘one specific place’ (such as floods, cyclone and drought) are regular events in coastal parts of the state of Orissa. The super-cyclone of 1999, two floods of 2001 and 2003 and drought of 2000 and 2002 form the case study. Participant observation, in-depth interviews and documentary evidence complement the fieldwork. The findings suggest a complex interplay of caste, class and gender in surviving the multiple disasters including structural mutability under the purview of social organization. In doing so, women demonstrated their individual and collective agencies in order to meet their cultural and biological needs under severe crisis. This research stresses that gender and disaster studies must include a consideration of caste and class for effective disaster management and social vulnerability reduction.     

A review of coastal community vulnerabilities toward resilience benefits from disaster reduction measures

The coast has always been an area of significant hazards. In situations of community self-sufficiency, consequences of coastal hazards might be isolated to regions directly affected by the hazard. But, in the current global economy, fewer and fewer communities are isolated; damage to one location frequently has consequences around the globe and coastal community resilience can have broad-reaching benefits. Hazard responses for the built coastal environment have typically been resistance: constructing stronger buildings, enhancing natural barriers or creating artificial barriers. These approaches to hazard reduction through coastal engineering and shoreline defence efforts have been crucial to sustained coastal development. However, as coastal forces continue or magnify and resources become scarcer, resistance alone may be less effective or even unsustainable, and interest in resilience has grown. Resilience is a community's ability either to absorb destructive forces without loss of service or function, or to recover quickly from disasters. Community resilience encompasses multiple elements, ranging from governance to structural design, risk knowledge, prevention, warning systems and recovery. This paper focuses on hazards of coastal communities, and provides a review of some recent engineering efforts to improve the resilience elements of risk knowledge and disaster warnings for coastal disaster reduction.     

Travelling without a helmet: tourists' vulnerabilities and responses to disasters in Indonesia

Tourists are particularly vulnerable when natural disasters occur in regions that they are visiting. It is assumed that they lack awareness and understanding of the actions that they need to take in such circumstances. This study examines the responses of tourists in times of disaster, building on empirical data collected through large‐scale surveys conducted in Bali and Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in 2015. Both are important tourist destinations in the country that have suffered major disasters in recent years. The different types of responses to these events are framed using a grid/group analysis stemming from cultural theory. The study resulted in three key findings: (i) current disaster management planning largely follows a single rationale; (ii) tourists are not a homogeneous group, but rather a complex, diverse, and dynamic body of stakeholders; and (iii) the focus of disaster management planning should shift from a single rationale to a polyrational methodology. Disaster managers need to consider, therefore, these different aspects in the context of preparedness.