地铁隧道施工风险机理分析

为预防地铁隧道施工风险事件的发生,需对风险机理进行系统研究。根据风险的发生过程将风险机理分为产生、发展及演化3个阶段。把耗散结构理论引入到地铁隧道施工塌方风险机理的研究中,并论证其适用性,从3个阶段对塌方风险的形成过程进行分析,对塌方风险的耗散结构形成条件进行论证。分析表明:从开挖到岩体变形可视为风险产生阶段,此时平衡态被打破。从塑性变形到变形率急剧增大视为风险发展阶段,经历近平衡态、较远平衡态及远离平衡态;从一个风险事件到多个风险事件陆续发生视为风险演化阶段,此时一个甚至多个事件耗散结构形成。     

The influence of slope collapse on water exchange between a pit lake and a heterogeneous aquifer

Slope collapse will reduce the water exchange. Slope collapse will affect the spatial distribution of the water exchange. Precipitation have the most impact on the dynamics of the water exchange. Due to the increase in open pit mining, pit lakes have become common surface water features, posing a potential risk to subsurface aquifer. In this study, a pit lake–groundwater interaction model is built based on the general program MODFLOW with the LAK3 package. For the first time, the effects of lake-slope collapse and aquifer heterogeneity on pit lake–groundwater interactions are analyzed by dividing the lake into six water exchange zones based on the aquifer lithology and groundwater level. Our investigation and simulations reveal a total water exchange from groundwater to the lake of 349000 m³/a without collapse of the pit lake slope, while the total net water exchange under slope collapse conditions is 248000 m³/a (i.e., a reduction of 1.40-fold). The monthly net water exchange per unit width from groundwater to the lake reaches the largest in April, shifting to negative values in zone IV from June to August and in zone V in June and July. Moreover, the monthly net water exchange per unit width decreases from north to south, and the direction and magnitude of water exchange are found to depend on the hydraulic gradients between the lake and groundwater and the hydraulic conductivity of the slope collapse.     

渔业资源动态的综合时序模型

渔业资源的变动是一个随机过程,它既有确定性趋势,又有随机波动的特性。论文把灰色系统方法和时序分析相结合,用灰色GM(1,1)模型提取渔业资源变动中的确定性趋势,用时序模型描写它的随机波动,从而建立渔业资源动态的灰色时序模型。考虑到渔业资源的变化受到捕捞强度的影响,同时建立渔获量和单位捕捞努力量的渔获量(CPUE)关于捕捞努力量的二元时序模型。利用灰色时序模型和多元时序模型,对舟山渔场渔业资源的动态变化进行分析和预测,结果表明灰色时序模型和多元时序模型能很好地拟合渔业资源的变动过程,精确地预测渔业资源未来的状况。     

基于云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价

针对造成隧道塌方事故影响因子的复杂性和模糊性,基于云模型理论,选取影响隧道塌方风险的10项因子,建立了4个风险等级的隧道塌方风险评价模型。根据云模型的数字特征计算规则计算各因子隶属于不同风险等级的云模型数字特征,结合正向正态云发生器和各项评价因子的权重,获得云模型的综合确定度,最终由最大综合确定度确定隧道塌方风险等级。工程实例样本应用中,构建的隧道塌方风险评价云模型和模糊综合评价模型的评价结果相符,同时与相应的设计施工方案和施工安全风险评估报告的结果相吻合,表明该模型的可行性与有效性,体现出云模型中定性语言描述和定量数值间不确定转换的优点,且结果便于工程应用。     

Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists of species and ecosystems

Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems. Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared 3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within 50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics. The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change. Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with stakeholders or the general public.     

超高效液相色谱 三重四极杆质谱法测定地表水和地下水中11种三嗪类农药

建立了针对地表水和地下水中11种三嗪类农药的超高效液相色谱三重四极杆质谱分析方法,并对前处理、仪器分析、方法特性指标等因素进行优化探讨。使用SB-C18色谱柱、乙腈水二元混合液流动相进行化合物分离,设置柱温为40℃、进样量为10μL,质谱采用正离子模式检测,内标法定量,采用平均相对响应因子法拟合标准曲线。结果表明,11种三嗪类农药的方法检出限为0.003~0.01μg/L,对3种质量浓度的基体加标样品分别进行6次平行分析,测定结果的相对标准偏差为2.1%~19%,平均加标回收率为80.0%~108%。采集地表水和地下水样品,经尼龙或聚四氟乙烯滤膜过滤后上机测定,在1种地表水样品中检出了阿特拉津和扑灭津,平均质量浓度分别为0.032和0.009μg/L。该方法具有准确度高、重复性好、检出限低等优点,能够满足现阶段地表水和地下水的环境管理监测要求。     

陕西榆林地区北部塌陷地震初步分析

介绍了陕西榆林地区北部所发生的几次典型塌陷地震的宏观情况,并利用陕西数字地震台网所记录的50次塌陷地震的地震波资料,从波形及时间、空间分布上初步分析了陕西榆林地区塌陷地震发生的基本特征。     

Advanced rescue techniques: lessons learned from the collapse of a building in Nairobi, Kenya

This paper examines the collapse of a five-storey building in Nairobi, Kenya, on 23 January 2006. It draws on reports from local authorities and on debriefings by Israel's Home Front Command (HFC), including information on injury distribution, rescue techniques, and the mode of operation. Most of the 117 people found under the structure were evacuated on the first day to a public hospital, which was overwhelmed by the incident. HFC forces arrived 23 hours after the disaster. At that stage, two people were still buried under the building and special techniques (tunnelling and scalping) were required to secure their evacuation. The two people quickly recovered after a short stay in hospital. Local technology is the preferred option during such events because time is crucial. International cooperation is required when this technology is not available. All of the hospitals in the disaster area, including private facilities, should participate in treating casualties.     

Demand for environmental quality information and household response: Evidence from well-water arsenic testing

Access to information about environmental quality may facilitate low-cost preventive measures that protect human health. In this paper, we study the demand for information about environmental quality and the behavioral response to the information provided. With a field experiment conducted in Bihar (India), we estimate the price sensitivity of demand for diagnostic testing of drinking water wells for arsenic of natural origin – a serious threat to the health of tens of millions of villagers across South and Southeast Asia. Demand is substantial but sensitive to price; uptake falls from 68% to 31% of households over our price range (Rs. 10 to Rs. 50). We further assess how households respond to information regarding the contamination level in their wells. About one-third of households with unsafe wells switch to a safer water source. Finally, we demonstrate that households that received adverse test outcomes are more likely to selectively forget test results, and proactively remove evidence of their wells' arsenic status.     

Loss of an ecological baseline through the eradication of oyster reefs from coastal ecosystems and human memory

Oyster reefs form over extensive areas and the diversity and productivity of sheltered coasts depend on them. Due to the relatively recent population growth of coastal settlements in Australia, we were able to evaluate the collapse and extirpation of native oyster reefs (Ostrea angasi) over the course of a commercial fishery. We used historical records to quantify commercial catch of O. angasi in southern Australia from early colonization, around 1836, to some of the last recorded catches in 1944 and used our estimates of catch and effort to map their past distribution and assess oyster abundance over 180 years. Significant declines in catch and effort occurred from 1886 to 1946 and no native oyster reefs occur today, but historically oyster reefs extended across more than 1,500 km of coastline. That oyster reefs were characteristic of much of the coastline of South Australia from 1836 to 1910 appears not to be known because there is no contemporary consideration of their ecological and economic value. Based on the concept of a shifted baseline, we consider this contemporary state to reflect a collective, intergenerational amnesia. Our model of generational amnesia accounts for differences in intergenerational expectations of food, economic value, and ecosystem services of nearshore areas. An ecological system that once surrounded much of the coast and possibly the past presence of oyster reefs altogether may be forgotten and could not only undermine progress towards their recovery, but also reduce our expectations of these coastal ecosystems. La Pérdida de una Línea de Base Ecológica por Medio de la Erradicación de Arrecifes de Ostión de los Ecosistemas Costeros y la Memoria Humana