美国地震风险评估中灾害模型的探讨

介绍了以美国地震灾害模型为例的地震风险评估在金融保险业和土木工程两大领域的应用,回顾了地震灾害风险评估发展的历史背景,其中,金融保险业的模型更测重于对历史理赔数据的分析,土木工程业的模型则注重于对工程结构的分析。着重探讨了评估模型中地震灾害部分的建立,其中包括致灾因子模块及孕灾环境模块。针对建模中致灾因子、孕灾环境等的关键要素,如地震源及震级、地震衰减方式、场地土壤土质条件、地震复发率等,作了分析及归纳总结,并系统地介绍了所涉及要素的数据信息获取过程及对应的建模方法,进一步探讨了相应的风险量化的步骤和方法。     

Inhalation dose assessment of indoor radon progeny using biokinetic and dosimetric modeling and its application to Jordanian population

High indoor radon concentrations in Jordan result in internal exposures of the residents due to the inhalation of radon and its short-lived progeny. It is therefore important to quantify the annual effective dose and further the radiation risk to the radon exposure. This study describes the methodology and the biokinetic and dosimetric models used for calculation of the inhalation doses exposed to radon progeny. The regional depositions of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract were firstly calculated. For the attached progeny, the activity median aerodynamic diameters of 50 nm, 230 nm and 2500 nm were chosen to represent the nucleation, accumulation and coarse modes of the aerosol particles, respectively. For the unattached progeny, the activity median thermodynamic diameter of 1 nm was chosen to represent the free progeny nuclide in the room air. The biokinetic models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were used to calculate the nuclear transformations of radon progeny in the human body, and then the dosimetric model was applied to estimate the organ equivalent doses and the effective doses with the specific effective energies derived from the mathematical anthropomorphic phantoms. The dose conversion coefficient estimated in this study was 15 mSv WLM⁻¹ which was in the range of the values of 6-20 mSv WLM⁻¹ reported by other investigators. Implementing the average indoor radon concentration in Jordan, the annual effective doses were calculated to be 4.1 mSv y⁻¹ and 0.08 mSv y⁻¹ due to the inhalation of radon progeny and radon gas, respectively. The total annual effective dose estimated for Jordanian population was 4.2 mSv y⁻¹. This high annual effective dose calculated by the dosimetric approach using ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models resulted in an increase of a factor of two in comparison to the value by epidemiological study. This phenomenon was presented by the ICRP in its new published statement on radon.     

Indirect measurements of field-scale hydraulic conductivity of waste from two landfill sites

Management and prediction of the movement and distribution of fluids in large landfills is important for various reasons. Bioreactor landfill technology shows promise, but in arid or semi-arid regions, the natural content of landfilled waste may be low, thus requiring addition of significant volumes of water. In more humid locations, landfills can become saturated, flooding gas collection systems and causing sideslope leachate seeps or other undesirable occurrences. This paper compares results from two different approaches to monitoring water in waste. At the Brock West Landfill in eastern Canada, positive pore pressures were measured at various depths in saturated waste. The downward seepage flux through the waste is known, thus the vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the waste at this landfill was determined to be 3 × 10(-7)cm/s. By comparison, the Spadina Landfill in western Canada is predominantly unsaturated. The infiltration of moisture into the waste was measured using moisture sensors installed in boreholes which determined arrival time for moisture fronts resulting from major precipitation events as well as longer-term change in moisture content resulting from unsaturated drainage during winter when frozen ground prevented infiltration. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity calculated from these data ranged from approximately 10(-6)cm/s for the slow winter drainage in the absence of significant recharge to 10(-2)cm/s or higher for shallow waste subject to high infiltration through apparent preferential pathways. These two very different approaches to field-scale measurements of vertical hydraulic conductivity provide insight into the nature of fluid movement in saturated and unsaturated waste masses. It is suggested that the principles of unsaturated seepage apply reasonably well for landfilled waste and that the hydraulic behavior of waste is profoundly influenced by the nature and size of voids and by the degree of saturation prevailing in the landfill.     

Constraining SWAT Calibration with Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Data

Historically, many watershed studies have been based on using the streamflow flux, typically from a single gauge at the basin's outlet, to support calibration. In this setting, there is great potential for equifinality of parameters during the optimization process, especially for parameters that are not directly related to streamflow. Therefore, some of the optimal parameter values achieved during the autocalibration process may be physically unrealistic. In recent decades a vast array of data from land surface models and remote sensing platforms can help to constrain hydrologic fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET). While the spatial resolution of these ancillary datasets varies, the continuous spatial coverage of these gridded datasets provides flux measurements across the entire basin, in stark contrast to point‐based streamflow data. This study uses Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Model data to constrain Soil and Water Assessment Tool parameter values associated with ET to a more physically realistic range. The study area is the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed, in southern Oklahoma. Traditional objective metrics such as the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients record no performance improvement after application of this method. However, there is a dramatic increase in the number of days with receding flow where simulations match observed streamflow.     

Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

Framing Dynamics and Political Gridlock: The Curious Case of Hydraulic Fracturing in New York

‘Fracking’ was on New York's agenda since 2008, yet no decision was made about it until late 2014. The gridlock is an intriguing puzzle given that the Marcellus shale is considered a ‘world class’ energy supply, and development has been aggressive in other US states. While policy scholars typically conceptualize gridlock as policy stability, this paper examines it as a dynamic process by which competing discourse coalitions engage in interactive framing processes that (re)structure the discussion. This suggests that the interaction between contending coalitions influences gridlock. Yet, we lack knowledge about interactive framing between competing coalitions during policy controversies. Our main finding is that a central mechanism of gridlock is the production of conflict through interactive framing dynamics that deny a shared discursive space capable of ushering in a consensus, or reasoned agreement. In New York, this contest evolved from a policy consensus about the economic benefits of fracking to policy negotiation that incorporated environmental threats, and to prolonged policy controversy in which competing discourse coalitions contested notions of fracking in relation to energy production, environmental protection, public health, economic development, and governance. While a ban has been instituted, the failure to bridge discourse coalitions suggests that controversy will persist unless meaning disputes are resolved.     

Hot,Salty Water: A Confluence of Issues in Managing Stormwater Runoff for Urban Streams

Research increasingly highlights cause and effect relationships between urbanization and stream conditions are complex and highly variable across physical and biological regions. Research also demonstrates stormwater runoff is a key causal agent in altering stream conditions in urban settings. More specifically, thermal pollution and high salt levels are two consequences of urbanization and subsequent runoff. This study describes a demonstration model populated with data from a high gradient headwaters stream. The model was designed to explain surface water‐groundwater dynamics related to salinity and thermal pollution. Modeled scenarios show long‐term additive impacts from salt application and suggest reducing flow rates, as stormwater management practices are typically designed to do, have the potential to greatly reduce salt concentrations and simultaneously reduce thermal pollution. This demonstration model offers planners and managers reason to be confident that stormwater management efforts can have positive impacts.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Modeling traffic air pollution in street canyons in New York City for intra-urban exposure assessment in the US Multi-Ethnic Study of atherosclerosis and air pollution

We evaluated the Danish AirGIS air quality and exposure model system using air quality measurement data from New York City in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Measurements were used from three US EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring stations and a comprehensive MESA Air measurement campaign including about 150 different locations and about 650 samples of about 2 week measurements of NO_x, NO₂ and PM_2.5. AirGIS is a deterministic exposure model system based on the dispersion models Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the Urban Background Model (UBM). The UBM model reproduced the annual levels within 1–26% depending on station and pollutant at the three urban background EPA monitor stations, and generally reproduced well the seasonal and diurnal variation. The full model with OSPM and UBM reproduced the MESA Air measurements with a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.51 for NO_x, r² = 0.28 for NO₂ and r² = 0.73 for PM_2.5.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of PM10 concentration across Malaysia

The recurrence of forest fires in Southeast Asia and associated biomass burning, has contributed markedly to the problem of trans-boundary haze and the long-range movement of pollutants in the region. Air pollutants, specifically particulate matter in the atmosphere, have received extensive attention, mainly because of their adverse effect on people's health. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the PM10 concentration across Malaysia was analyzed by means of the rotated principal component analysis. The results suggest that the variability of the PM10 concentration can be decomposed into four dominant modes, each characterizing different spatial and temporal variations. The first mode characterizes the southwest coastal region of the Malaysian Peninsular with the PM10 showing a peak concentration during the summer monsoon i.e. when the winds are predominantly southerlies or southwesterlies, and a minimal concentration during the winter monsoon. The second mode features the region of western Borneo with the PM10 exhibiting a concentration surge in August–September, which is likely to be the result of the northward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the subsequent rapid arrival of the rainy season. The third mode delineates the northern region of the Malaysian Peninsular with strong bimodality in the PM10 concentration. Seasonally, this component exhibits two concentration maxima during the late winter and summer monsoons, as well as two minima during the inter-monsoon periods. The fourth dominant mode characterizes the northern Borneo region which exhibits weaker seasonality of the PM10 concentration. Generally, the seasonal fluctuation of the PM10 concentration is largely associated with the seasonal variation of rainfall in the country. However, in addition to this, the PM10 concentration also fluctuates markedly in two timescale bands i.e. 10–20 days quasi-biweekly (QBW) and 30–60 days lower frequency (LF) band of the intra-seasonal timescales. These intra-seasonal fluctuations show strong seasonality with the largest fraction of variance occurring during the boreal summer and the weakest variance during the winter. Generally, the LF intra-seasonal oscillation is stronger compared to the QBW intra-seasonal band.