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61.
山东省的干旱化特征分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
利用山东省近50多年的农业旱灾灾情资料和降水资料,分析了干旱灾情和致灾因子的变化特征。结果指出:20世纪70年代后期以来,6—9月份西太平洋副高脊线位置偏南,山东省的汛期降水量有明显的减少趋势,导致干旱灾害的受灾面积明显增大。进入90年代以后,与1961—1976年相比,干燥度指数普遍增大,半岛东部及黄河以北地区干燥程度增大得最为明显,半岛东部、鲁东南及鲁南的大部分地区由湿润区演变成了半湿润区,而黄河以北绝大部分地区及鲁中北部、半岛西北部的局部地区则由半湿润区演变成了半干旱地区。造成干燥度变化的主要原因是降水量的变化,其次是积温的变化。 相似文献
62.
63.
Siddhartha Bagchi Alvin S. Goodman 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1979,15(2):536-549
ABSTRACT: This paper focuses on the development and testing of a mathematical model of an emergency ground water supply operated principally during periods of low streamflow. The process of ground water withdrawal and recharge is simulated taking account of streamflow, water demand, evapotranspiration, natural and artificial recharge and increased evapotranspiration due to artificial recharge, ground water pumpage, and streamflow contribution to pumped water. The model determines whether natural recharge is possible in less time than the return period of drought and also whether artificial recharge is needed. By simulating operation over a long period of time, the model can examine different droughts of short and long duration and can test the operating rules for ground water storage development in an area. Submodels analyze the components of the operating process including ground water flow into the stream, seepage losses, stream portion of well discharge due to induced infiltration and recharge from rainfall or water spreading. The model has been tested for areas in the humid northeastern United States. 相似文献
64.
David M. Meko Charles W. Stockton William R. Boggess 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1980,16(4):594-600
ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California. 相似文献
65.
Motoko Y. Lee Richard D. Warren 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1981,17(6):948-955
ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of water conservation policies on reduction of water consumption was evaluated by use of a multiple regression predictive model. Data were obtained from eight Iowa communities, with regard to water consumption and water conservation policies adopted during the drought of 1977. The proposed model, which takes precipitation, temperature, month effects, and uniqueness of communities into account, is considered superior to the use of simple percent changes in evaluating the significance of reduction in water consumption due to conservation efforts. Among the variety of policies reviewed, mandatory policies with per capita restrictions were found to be most effective. However, voluntary conservation policies also resulted in significant reduction in some communities located in close proximity to other communities with severer water shortages. High credibility of local governments as to water shortage information was singled out as the most important factor in successful conservation by water resource policymakers of these communities. Use of the proposed predictive model for water consumption was demonstrated. Recommendations regarding future water conservation were made. 相似文献
66.
ABSTRACT: Four alternate schemes often used to deal with a water shortage are: physical rationing, lifeline with increasing block rates, rationing with resale, and pure price rationing. Each of these are analyzed using a supply-demand framework. The theoretical results are applied to a representative California water district and the welfare loss is calculated for a hypothetical 20 percent reduction in water supply for six different income classes. We find that reliance on schemes using the price mechanism in one form or another is clearly superior, in terms of welfare loss, as a means of dealing with a water shortage. 相似文献
67.
Agri-environmental policies are challenging to be evaluated since they are often implemented in combination with other policies and regulations affecting agriculture. Also input and output markets affect agriculture. We provide impact assessment of agri-environmental scheme implemented in Finland 2007–2013 based on integrated economic and hydrological modelling and counterfactual scenarios. Development of crop specific fertilisation and land use changes, simulated using a multi-regional economic sector model, is included in a nutrient leaching model implemented in a typical agricultural region. Our results on agricultural production, land use, and nitrogen leaching show that the agri-environmental policy successfully mitigates nutrient leaching in intensive production regions but some mitigation potential is lost in less intensive regions. 相似文献
68.
Benjamin F. Hobbs Yongshou Luo M. E. Maciejowski Conrad V. Chester 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1989,25(1):1-13
ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired. 相似文献
69.
利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。 相似文献
70.
本文用旱涝指标(即H=P/E)式计算了湖北省解放以来各年月的旱涝指数,它对给定的时间和空间上的旱涝轻重程度具有明显的分辨能力,由此确定了历年各自然季节的旱涝轻重年份的次序。 相似文献