SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

Impacts of hydroelectric development on riparian vegetation in the Sierra Nevada region,California, USA

Fourteen streams in the Sierra Nevada in the USA were sampled to determine whether diversions of streamflow for hydroelectric development had caused significant changes in riparian vegetation. Several streams showed significant differences in vegetation cover, community composition, or community structure between pairs of diverted and undiverted reaches. On some streams, environmental conditions rather than streamflow diversions may have been responsible for vegetation differences. Streams in the Sierra Nevada respond individualistically to diversions. Prediction of vegetation responses must take into consideration environmental characteristics of specific stream reaches.     

Biotechnology is not compatible with sustainable agriculture

Biotechnology increases commercialization of food production, which competes with food for home use. Most people in the world grow their own food, and are more secure without the mediation of the market. To the extent that biotechnology enhances market competitiveness, world food security will decrease. This instability will result in a greater gap between rich and poor, increasing poverty of women and children, less ability and incentive to protect the environment, and greater need for militarization to maintain order. Therefore, biotechnology should be discouraged. An active program to protect and strengthen local food production and to decrease reliance on industrial agriculture should be promoted.     

冲击实验装置环境振动影响评价

本文计算和分析了冲击实验装置运行对环境造成的振动干扰，所用数据为实测分析参数，计算结果表明，冲击实验装置在运行期间对周围环境造成的振动影响是可接受的。     

Assessing national sustainable development strategies: Strengthening the links to operational policy

At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, it was agreed that all countries should develop a national sustainable develop‐ment strategy (NSDS) as a key component of implementing the goals of Agenda 21. Progress has been limited. Few countries have established a formal strategy, and many of the strategies that exist have been only partially implemented. This article proposes an approach that addresses the need to improve existing strategic planning mechanisms. The approach is based on a periodic assessment of existing systems, to evaluate the extent to which they incorporate NSDS principles, and identify areas to be strengthened. The article describes an assessment methodology, presents examples of its use, and discusses ways in which current approaches to NSDS may be complemented by continual review and improvement of existing planning processes.     

一种新型的机场空中驱鸟方法的研究

本文针对鸟撞这一世界性的问题，提出了一种机场驱鸟的新方法，该方法采用航模携带音频设备，频闪及摄像机等的空中复合驱鸟系统。通过对该方法的工作原理及方法的可行性进行了分析，得出了如下结论：该方法能够克服地面驱鸟系统的不足，进一步净化机场上空的范围，改善驱鸟效果，极大地减少了飞机起降时鸟撞的机会；发展专用的空中驱鸟系统不仅是必需，而且是必然的。     

我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

泥石流入汇的危险性判别指标

通过对比单沟和区域泥石流危险性的评估方法 ,提出了利用影响度、危险度和危害度 3项指标判别汇流区泥石流入汇危险性的设想 ,分析了泥石流入汇可能引起堵江的影响因子。作为尝试 ,给出了判别指标的计算公式 ,经实例验证具有较好的实用性 ,可作为规划设计的技术依据。     

Not by nutrients alone: a call to broaden the soil fertility initiative

The article discusses agricultural practices in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in terms of maintaining soil fertility. It disagrees with alarmist tendencies in the current debate, exaggerating the state of soil impoverishment in the African region. Nor does it subscribe to the idea that the remedy lies primarily in a massive influx of chemical fertilisers, especially phosphorus.
Instead, the article advocates a more balanced approach, where soil nutrient replenishment, as an improvement in natural capital, is but one part of the investment African agriculture needs. To achieve sustainable rural livelihoods, other forms of capital are also required, such as physical capital, i.e. infrastructure (roads, means of communication); financial capital in the form of credit and savings schemes; and human- and social capital, especially improved access to information and knowledge for farmers as well as improved local organisation and empowerment.
The article reviews nine case studies, taken from different climate zones in the region and representing different soil conditions. All case studies were projects using the participatory learning and action research (PLAR) method, which is discussed in detail.     

An approach to integrate impact scoping with environmental impact assessment

Impact scoping is the process of identifying important issues of a proposal and focusing the environmental impact assessment (EIA) on the high-priority issues. Although impact scoping in one form or another has been inherent to EIA for some time, documentation of its development and discussion of refinements to impact scoping processes have not been forthcoming. This article traces the development of impact scoping through time and highlights the need for such processes in EIA. A focused environmental assessment (FEA) approach to impact scoping that is suitable for implementation in an EIA is presented here and advantages of its use are delineated. FEA is a three-staged process that encourages impact scoping through progressive steps including impact identification, assessment and management planning. FEA combines a suite of EIA methods including: issues matrices, impact hypotheses, valued ecosystem components, and stakeholder participation sessions to effectively integrate impact scoping with EIA.