Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 2. Parameter estimation by inverse analysis

This study focuses on the verification of test interpretations for different state analyses of diffusion experiments. Part 1 of this study identified that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium state analyses for the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs are generally feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In Part 2 we investigate parameter identifiability in transient-state analysis of reservoir concentration variation using a numerical approach. For increased generality, the analytical models, objective functions and Jacobian matrix necessary for inverse analysis of transient-state data are reformulated using unified dimensionless parameters. In these dimensionless forms, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and a single dimensionless parameter represents the sorption property. The dimensionless objective functions are evaluated for individual test methods and parameter identifiability is discussed in relation to the sorption property. The effects of multiple minima and measurement error on parameter identifiability are also investigated. The main findings are that inverse problems for inlet and outlet reservoir concentration analyses are generally unstable and well-posed, respectively. Where the tracer is sorptive, the inverse problem for the inlet reservoir concentration analysis may have multiple minima. When insufficient measurement data is collected, multiple solutions may result and this should be taken into consideration when inversely analyzing data including that of inlet reservoir concentration. Verification of test interpretation by cross-checking different state analyses is feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In an actual experiment, test interpretation validity is demonstrated through consistency between theory and practice for different state analyses.     

官地水电站竹子坝料场高边坡的稳定性分析及其影响因数研究

竹子坝料场是官地水电站混凝土浇筑骨料的重要来源之一。结合竹子坝料场的地形地质情况,以及料场开挖后形成的东、南、西三段人工边坡,运用刚体极限平衡的方法进行稳定性分析及其影响因数的研究。     

The accounting method and application of CO2 emissions responsibility by the electricity sector at the provincial level in China

When accounting the CO₂ emissions responsibility of the electricity sector at the provincial level in China,it is of great significance to consider the scope of both producers’ and the consumers’ responsibility,since this will promote fairness in defining emission responsibility and enhance cooperation in emission reduction among provinces.This paper proposes a new method for calculating carbon emissions from the power sector at the provincial level based on the shared responsibility principle and taking into account interregional power exchange.This method can not only be used to account the emission responsibility shared by both the electricity production side and the consumption side,but it is also applicable for calculating the corresponding emission responsibility undertaken by those provinces with net electricity outflow and inflow.This method has been used to account for the carbon emissions responsibilities of the power sector at the provincial level in China since 2011.The empirical results indicate that compared with the production-based accounting method,the carbon emissions of major power-generation provinces in China calculated by the shared responsibility accounting method are reduced by at least 10%,but those of other power-consumption provinces are increased by 20% or more.Secondly,based on the principle of shared responsibility accounting,Inner Mongolia has the highest carbon emissions from the power sector while Hainan has the lowest.Thirdly,four provinces,including Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Hubei and Anhui,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity outflow- 14 million t in 2011,accounting for 74.42% of total carbon emissions from net electricity outflow in China.Six provinces,including Hebei,Beijing,Guangdong,Liaoning,Shandong,and Jiangsu,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity inflow- 11 million t in 2011,accounting for 71.44% of total carbon emissions from net electricity inflow in China.Lastly,this paper has estimated the emission factors of electricity consumption at the provincial level,which can avoid repeated calculations when accounting the emission responsibility of power consumption terminals（e.g.construction,automobile manufacturing and other industries）.In addition,these emission factors can also be used to account the emission responsibilities of provincial power grids.     

青藏高原典型城市拉萨市近地面臭氧污染特征

拉萨市作为青藏高原典型城市,环境空气质量相对较好,但臭氧污染近年来有所凸显。对拉萨市臭氧的现状与污染特征进行分析基础上,探讨臭氧污染的影响因素。结果表明:拉萨市臭氧污染表现出"来得早,去得快"的特征,与内地城市相比,拉萨市臭氧质量浓度在3月即可达到全年平均值(2015年为105μg/m~3),而9月以后将低于全年平均值,并在春末夏初达到峰值;由于青藏高原海拔高,紫外线强,相对内陆地区臭氧均值偏高,2015年拉萨市臭氧年均值比北京市和成都市分别高出7.7%、29.0%,其小时浓度变化呈中午高、早晚低的特征;拉萨市臭氧的浓度变化受空气湿度、日照时间和日均气温的影响;生物质燃料的跨界传输可能也对青藏高原地区臭氧的来源产生一定影响。     

我国典型南方城市臭氧污染特征

分析了我国典型南方城市的臭氧污染特征,选取我国4个有代表性的南方重点城市武汉、宁波、中山和南宁的2013—2015年监测数据,使用EXCEL、ORIGIN和MATLAB等统计软件开展研究,结果表明:我国南方典型城市的臭氧质量浓度分布有明显时间变化特征,超标时间跨度大,部分南方城市与氮氧化物存在较明显负相关性,相关系数高于-0.6;受城市所在不同地理位置、气象因素、大气扩散条件及可能的不同本地排放污染源构成等因素影响,4个城市的近3年臭氧浓度月均值、超标情况和年内峰值均存在一定差异和分组相似性;与部分气象因素也表现出显著相关性。     

典型湖泊水华特征及相关影响因素分析

通过2011-2015年对太湖、巢湖和滇池水华高发季节的连续监测,以藻类密度和水华面积为判据评价了3个湖体的水华情况及变化趋势,探讨了水华发生的主要影响因素。结果表明：太湖水华程度以"轻度水华"为主,巢湖水华程度以"轻微水华"为主,滇池水华程度以"中度水华"为主;太湖、巢湖和滇池水华规模均以"零星性水华"为主;太湖和巢湖藻类密度与水温、pH、溶解氧、总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度呈显著负相关,与氨氮无显著相关性;滇池藻类密度与水温、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度和氨氮呈显著负相关,与pH、溶解氧和总氮无显著相关性。     

气相分子吸收光谱法测定印染废水中氨氮的影响因素

采用气相分子吸收法光谱测定印染废水中的氨氮,并对相关影响因素进行探讨。结果证实,硫化物和尿素会对氨氮的测定产生负干扰,硫化物干扰可用乙酸锌-乙酸钠固定液沉淀法去除,尿素干扰可以用稀释法去除,但仅适用于氨氮质量浓度0.10 mg/L且稀释后尿素质量浓度≤100 mg/L的水样;苯胺、浊度和色度对测定无干扰,可直接检测。     

华东森林及高山背景区域SO2、NOx、CO本底特征

国家大气背景监测福建武夷山站是中国华东区域背景站点之一,可代表华东森林及高山区域背景状况。为了解该区域的大气背景状况,评估区域污染现状以及污染物输送在区域污染中的作用,选取福建武夷山背景站2011年3月至2012年2月主要气体污染物（SO₂、NO_x、CO）为期1年的监测数据,研究各污染物在不同时间尺度的浓度变化特征和相关关系,以及与气象因子的相关关系,并利用后向轨迹模式探讨区域输送对华东森林及高山背景区域各气体污染物质量浓度的影响。结果表明,武夷山背景点监测期间SO₂、NO_x、CO的平均质量浓度分别为3.9、5.1、409.8 μg/m³,且具有明显的季节变化特征,春、冬季明显高于夏、秋季;三者日变化幅度均很小,呈现出单谷型分布型态,说明武夷山背景点受人为活动的影响很小,主要受气象条件影响;相关性分析结果显示,SO₂与NO_x浓度相关性较好,与湿度有较好的负相关,与风速在冬季具有一定的正相关,NO_x与CO浓度在秋季和冬季的相关性较好,且二者与温度的负相关性较好。后向轨迹分析结果表明,SO₂全年最大浓度峰值主要来自北方采暖季燃煤排放的远距离输送影响,NO_x、CO全年最大值则源于生物质燃烧的远距离输送影响。     

射阳湖浮游动物群落结构特征及其与环境因子相关性研究

2016—2017年对射阳湖开展浮游动物群落结构和水质指标逐月监测。结果表明,射阳湖共鉴定出浮游动物61种,其中原生动物、轮虫、枝角类和桡足类分别为25种、24种、7种和5种。浮游动物种类数呈现春夏季多于秋冬季的变化趋势。浮游动物优势种数量较多、分布广,群落结构相对复杂且稳定。运用Shannon-Wiener指数、均匀度指数和B/T指数对射阳湖水质作评价,结果表明,该湖处于轻度—中度污染状态,生物学指标评价法与常规水质评价结果一致。浮游动物群落结构与水质指标相关性分析表明,水温、透明度、Chl-a和DO是影响射阳湖浮游动物群落结构的主要水质指标。     

PSO和SVM混合算法确定太湖入湖河流水质主要影响因子

以影响太湖入湖河流水质的24个因子值为研究对象,将PSO算法与SVM算法相结合。PSO算法用于优化SVM算法的参数c和g,以利于快速、高效地确定c和g的全局最优值;SVM算法基于最优的c和g,分别以24,21,18,15,12,9和6个因子作为特征向量预测水质的污染程度。结果表明,当特征向量为9个影响因子时预测率最高。其参数c=18.56,g=1.35,对应的预测率为：全局预测率92.59%,重度污染水质预测率88.89%,轻度污染水质预测率94.45%。因此,通过PSO和SVM混合算法,可以确定影响太湖入湖河流水质的主要因子,利用这些主要因子对水质进行预测预警,不但可以节省时间,而且可以得到精确的结果。