Pattern-oriented modeling of bird foraging and pest control in coffee farms

We develop a model of how land use and habitat diversity affect migratory bird populations and their ability to suppress an insect pest on Jamaican coffee farms. Bird foraging—choosing which habitat patch and prey to use as prey abundance changes over space and time—is the key process driving this system. Following the “pattern-oriented” modeling strategy, we identified nine observed patterns that characterize the real system's dynamics. The model was designed so that these patterns could potentially emerge from it. The resulting model is individual-based, has fine spatial and temporal resolutions, represents very simply the supply of the pest insect and other arthropod food in six habitat types, and includes foraging habitat selection as the only adaptive behavior of birds. Although there is an extensive heritage of bird foraging theory in ecology, most of it addresses only the individual level and is too simple for our context. We used pattern-oriented modeling to develop and test foraging theory for this across-scale problem: rules for individual bird foraging that cause the model to reproduce a variety of patterns observed at the system level. Four alternative foraging theories were contrasted by how well they caused the model to reproduce the nine characteristic patterns. Four of these patterns were clearly reproduced with the “null” theory that birds select habitat randomly. A version of classical theory in which birds stay in a patch until food is depleted to some threshold caused the model to reproduce five patterns; this theory caused lower, not higher, use of habitat experiencing an outbreak of prey insects. Assuming that birds select the nearby patch providing highest intake rate caused the model to reproduce all but one pattern, whereas assuming birds select the highest-intake patch over a large radius produced an unrealistic distribution of movement distances. The pattern reproduced under none of the theories, a negative relation between bird density and distance to trees, appears to result from a process not in the model: birds return to trees at night to roost. We conclude that a foraging model for small insectivorous birds in diverse habitat should assume birds can sense higher food supply but over short, not long, distances.     

Jamaica's disappearing forests: physical and human aspects

Jamaica is a small island that is losing its forest cover at a rapid rate. Due to the dependency of its largely poor population on the many services and functions its forests provide, this loss threatens to have substantial socioeconomic and ecological consequences for the country. Despite these basic facts, the problem of Jamaican deforestation has received very little attention from the scientific community. This article presents results of an island-wide, satellite-based study of forest change for Jamaica for the period 1987–1992, which was supplemented by a field trip to the island in 1999 to assess the overall accuracy of the estimate. Landsat MSS images, which are available only up until 1992, have proved to be an invaluable and cost-effective resource for mapping forest change in the tropics, particularly in large areas. A supervised classification indicates that Jamaica experienced an average annual deforestation rate of 3.9% for this period, a figure higher than existing estimates based on partial ground surveys but lower than the FAO's 1990 Tropical Forest Assessment of 5.3% for 1981–1990. Deforestation estimates for Jamaica's 14 parishes are also presented, based on the integration of satellite-derived forest classification maps with a parish administrative boundaries map of the island in a GIS. A correlation analysis between parish deforestation estimates and socioeconomic and land use/quality indicators derived from official sources suggests that deforestation is occurring most rapidly in highly populated areas possessing large numbers of small farmers who live and work under resource-poor conditions. By providing a sense of the magnitude of and main forest loss hotspots, it is hoped that these national and subnational level forest estimates will draw scientific attention to the problem of deforestation on the island. In addition, the socioeconomic analysis may provide policy-makers and planners with some sense of the relative contribution of underlying driving process in this deforestation as a first step toward the creation of effective social programs to combat the problem.     

Assessing Habitat Quality for a Migratory Songbird Wintering in Natural and Agricultural Habitats

Abstract:  As tropical forests are cleared, a greater proportion of migratory songbirds are forced to winter in agricultural and disturbed habitats, which, if poorer in quality than natural forests, could contribute to population declines. We compared demographic indicators of habitat quality for a focal species, the American Redstart ( Setophaga ruticilla ), wintering in Jamaican citrus orchards and shade coffee plantations with those in four natural habitats: mangrove, coastal scrub, coastal palm, and dry limestone forests. Demographic measures of habitat quality included density, age and sex ratio, apparent survival, and changes in body mass. Measures of habitat quality for redstarts in citrus and coffee habitats were generally intermediate between the highest (mangrove) and lowest (dry limestone) measurements from natural habitats. The decline in mean body mass over the winter period was a strong predictor of annual survival rate among habitats, and we suggest that measures of body condition coupled with survival data provide the best measures of habitat quality for nonbreeding songbirds. Density, which is far easier to estimate, was correlated with these more labor-intensive measures, particularly in the late winter when food is likely most limiting. Thus, local density may be useful as an approximation of habitat quality for wintering migrant warblers. Our findings bolster those of previous studies based on bird abundance that suggest arboreal agricultural habitats in the tropics can be useful for the conservation of generalist, insectivorous birds, including many migratory passerines such as redstarts.     

Then and now: A 30-year journey from the ‘leading edge’

A fledgling disaster management organization in 1984, Jamaica's Office of Disaster Preparedness (ODP) hosted the pioneering international disaster mitigation conference to share information and to contemplate how vulnerability to disasters from natural hazards could be reduced. Over the period 1979–2009, the overall focus of the agency was response, given the plethora of extreme events, and the priority of the Government of Jamaica. The organization was associated with several efforts at disaster mitigation, but the need for building the agency's capacity to lead national efforts to integrate mitigation planning into development did not seem to gain traction among the policy makers. Growing losses since 2004, the evidence of climate change and the need for adaptation, and the regional and international disaster risk management agenda have brought attention to the need for review and development of Jamaica's disaster risk management capacity. This paper examines highlights of the 30-year journey of disaster management in Jamaica, and highlights proposals for strengthening the national framework and the organizational structure of ODPEM.     

Suspended particulates in the Jamaican atmosphere

The results of a survey of air particulates at 23 sites across Jamaica for total suspended particulates (TSP), Al, Br, Cl, Na, Pb, and V, by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) are reported. The geometric mean of TSP values, 35 g m-3, is well within the World Health Organisation's standard of 60 g m-3 for TSP, but in areas of high vehicular traffic density the TSP values exceeded this limit. The correlation coefficient between Br and Pb concentrations in the particulates was 0.92 and the Br/Pb ratio of 0.38 compares well with a ratio of 0.39 found in commercial petrol indicating that the exhaust from vehicular traffic is the major source of Pb in atmospheric particulate matter in Jamaica.