密闭爆炸容器实验研究及数值模拟

实验研究了三种结构的爆炸容器在爆炸载荷下的响应情况；并通过二维多流体欧拉程序对二维爆炸场进行了数值模拟．在这个基础上用ＮＩＫＥ－２Ｄ对壳体的动态响应进行数值模拟。     

Application of the randomized response technique to marine park management: an assessment of permit compliance

Marine product collecting permits are useful management tools for providing information on usage patterns. Unfortunately, usage parameters based on permit issuance are invariably inaccurate because of permit noncompliance. Since noncompliance is a prosecutable offense, any attempt to estimate the rate of noncompliance by direct survey techniques is met with misleading and evasive responses. It has been shown elsewhere that randomized response designs reduce survey response bias to incriminating questions by ensuring respondent anonymity. With the use of the randomized response survey technique, estimates of permit noncompliance were determined for the Capricornia Section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Noncompliance with the requirement to obtain the prescribed permit was found to be low whereas, once a permit was obtained, noncompliance with specific permit conditions was considered high. Reasons for the high rate of noncompliance with specific conditions are presented, and it is recommended that marine park managers should not unreservedly base management decisions on usage data derived simply from permit issuance.     

RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION RATES LINKED TO LONG-TERM CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL LANI) USE1

ABSTRACT: Long-term land use and reservoir sedimentation were quantified and linked in a small agricultural reservoir-watershed system without having historical data. Land use was determined from a time sequence of aerial photographs, and reservoir sedimentation was determined from cores with ¹³⁷Cs dating techniques. They were linked by relating sediment deposition to potential sediment production which was determined by the Universal Soil Loss Equation and by SCS estimates for gullied land. Sediment cores were collected from Tecumseh Lake, a 55-ha reservoir with a 1,189-ha agricultural watershed, constructed in 1934 in central Oklahoma. Reservoir sediment deposition decreased from an average of 5,933 Mg/yr from 1934 to 1954, to 3,179 Mg/yr from 1954 to 1962, and finally to 1,017 Mg/yr from 1962 to 1987. Potential sediment production decreased from an average of 29,892 to 11,122 and then to 3,589 Mg/yr for the same time periods as above, respectively. Reductions in deposition and sediment production corresponded to reductions in cultivated and abandoned cropland which became perennial pasture. Together, cultivated and abandoned cropland accounted for 59 percent of the watershed in 1937, 24 percent in 1954, and 10 percent in 1962. Roadway erosion, stream bank erosion, stored stream channel sediment, and long-term precipitation were considered, but none seemed to play a significant role in changing sediment deposition rates. Instead, the dominant factor was the conversion of fields to perennial pastures. The effect of conservation measures on reservoir sedimentation can now be quantified for many reservoirs where historical data is not available.     

Community-based Disaster Management During the 1997 Red River Flood in Canada

This paper examines the relationship between community preparedness and response to natural disaster and their level and pattern of community development. This is done by investigating preparation and response to the 1997 Red River Flood by three rural communities in Manitoba, Canada. The communities were selected because of their different ethnic mix and associated level and pattern of community development. The hypothesis was supported that the level and pattern of community development affect community capacity to respond to flooding. Communities characterised by higher levels of physical, human and social capital were better prepared and more effective responders to the flood. However, where the pattern of community development was characterised by high levels of social capital, decision-making processes were complicated.     

Multi-objective-based optimal transmission switching and demand response for managing congestion in hybrid power systems

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a novel congestion management (CM) approach by using the optimal transmission switching (OTS) and demand response (DR) for a system with conventional thermal generators and renewable energy sources (RESs). In this paper, wind and solar PV units are considered as the RESs. The stochastic behavior of wind and solar PV powers are modeled by using the appropriate probability density functions (PDFs). The proposed CM methodology simultaneously optimizes the generation dispatch, demand response, and also the network topology of the power system. The OTS identifies the branches that should be taken out of service by significantly reducing the operating cost of the system while respecting the system security. Here, the total operating cost minimization/social welfare maximization and system losses minimization are considered as the objectives to be optimized. The proposed CM problem is solved using the multi-objective Jaya algorithm and it is used to determine a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. The Jaya algorithm is simple and it does not have any algorithmic-specific parameters to be tuned. This aspect reduces the designer’s effort in tuning the parameters to arrive at the optimum objective function value. A fuzzy logic-based approach is used to identify the best compromise solution. The effectiveness of the proposed CM approach is examined on modified IEEE 30 and practical Indian 75 bus test systems. The obtained simulation results are analyzed and they show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

石油化工企业事故应急救援预案现状及改进建议

石油化工行业是一个高危行业 ,具有易燃易爆、高温高压、有毒有害的特点 ,发生事故的概率高 ,且后果严重。制定事故应急救援预案是风险控制措施的一个重要组成部分 ,可以有效地防止事故的扩大 ,减轻事故造成的财产和生命损失。笔者主要探讨应急救援管理层面上的问题 ;阐述了我国政府和有关部门在应急救援管理方面的有关规定 ,石化行业的应急救援体系 ;指出了目前事故应急救援预案存在的不完善、不规范 ,应急装备不完备和缺乏社会救援联动机制等问题 ;建议企业和政府联合制定应急预案 :形成企业、地方政府和国家三方事故应急救援联动机制 ,实现统一指挥 ,资源共享 ,协调作战 ,发挥整体应急救援能力。     

基础弹性刚度变化对铁路简支梁桥地震响应的影响研究

以某特大铁路简支梁桥为例 ,考虑m值变化对基础弹性刚度的影响 ,笔者建立了铁路简支梁桥单墩有限元计算分析模型 ;运用大型通用软件ANSYS ,采用时程分析方法 ,对不同地震输入激励条件下的桥墩动力响应进行计算研究 ;研究结果表明 ,m值变化引起的基础竖向刚度的变化对桥梁结构地震响应的影响较大。笔者的研究成果为硬土质基础的铁路简支梁桥的抗震安全设计 ,提供了重要参考。     

The health sector gap in the southern Africa crisis in 2002/2003

The southern Africa crisis represents the first widespread emergency in a region with a mature HIV/AIDS epidemic. It provides a steep learning curve for the international humanitarian system in understanding and responding to the complex interactions between the epidemic and the causes and the effects of this crisis. It also provoked much debate about the severity and causes of this emergency, and the appropriateness of the response by the humanitarian community. The authors argue that the over-emphasis on food aid delivery occurred at the expense of other public health interventions, particularly preventative and curative health services. Health service needs were not sufficiently addressed despite the early recognition that ill-health related to HIV/AIDS was a major vulnerability factor. This neglect occurred because analytical frameworks were too narrowly focused on food security, and large-scale support to health service delivery was seen as a long-term developmental issue that could not easily be dealt with by short-term humanitarian action. Furthermore, there were insufficient countrywide data on acute malnutrition, mortality rates and performance of the public health system to make better-balanced evidence-based decisions. In this crisis, humanitarian organisations providing health services could not assume their traditional roles of short-term assistance in a limited geographical area until the governing authorities resume their responsibilities. However, relegating health service delivery as a long-term developmental issue is not acceptable. Improved multisectoral analytical frameworks that include a multidisciplinary team are needed to ensure all aspects of public health are dealt with in similar future emergencies. Humanitarian organisations must advocate for improved delivery and access to health services in this region. They can target limited geographical areas with high mortality and acute malnutrition rates to deliver their services. Finally, to address the underlying problem of the health sector gap, a long-term strategy to ensure improved and sustainable health sector performance can only be accomplished with truly adequate resources. This will require renewed efforts on part of governments, donors and the international community. Public health interventions, complementing those addressing food insecurity, were and are still needed to reduce the impact of the crisis, and to allow people to re-establish their livelihoods. These will increase the population's resilience to prevent or mitigate future disasters.     

江苏地区地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的时空演变特征及预测意义

根据加卸载响应比理论,通过对1991～1996年江苏省部分井孔观测资料固体潮加卸载响应比的计算发现,在中强地震前一年左右的时间震中区附近的井孔出现了响应比高值异常。通过空间图像扫描可以看出:在苍山地震前一年左右,徐州、宿迁地区出现了加卸载响应比的高值集中区;在南黄海地震前一年左右,在镇江、苏州地区出现了高值集中区,之后高值集中区有自西向东迁移即有向震中区迁移的迹象。     

Civil society and the state: Turkey after the earthquake

On 17 August 1999 Turkey was hit by a massive earthquake. Over 17,000 lives were lost and there was extensive damage to Turkey's heartland. This paper examines how various public and private institutions, including state and civil society institutions such as NGOs and the media responded to the needs of earthquake survivors. It documents the extensive involvement of NGOs in the relief efforts immediately after the disaster and examines the impact of such participation on state-civil society relations in the country. The data show that state response to the disaster went through several phases from a period of ineptitude to effective management. The paper credits the media and the NGOs for acting as advocates for survivors and forcing changes at the state level. The paper argues that an ideal response system, which fully addresses the needs of victims, can only be based on state-civil society relations that are both collaborative and adversarial.