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Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a sensitive indicator to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to the climate change. Projections of the NPP changes of the Loess Plateau under future climate scenarios have great significances in revealing the interactions among terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems, as well as instructing future vegetation construction of this region. Here, we carried out a case study on the Yangou watershed in the Loess Plateau. Using the vegetation-producing process model (VPP) established for such small watersheds, we simulated the NPP of the Yangou watershed under different scenarios of climate changes. The results showed that the NPP significantly increased with the precipitation increasing and evidently decreased with the temperature increasing where the climate change occurred in the whole year or in the summer half year. However, where the climate change occurred in the winter half year, the increased precipitation had little effect on the NPP, and the increased temperature significantly reduced the NPP. There were clear differences among the response sensitivities of different vegetation types with trees and shrubs were more sensitive to the changes in temperature and precipitation than crops and grasses. Currently, the most favourable climate change scenario to the NPP in the Yangou watershed was T0P15 under which the precipitation increased by 15% and the temperature did not changed, in the whole year; in the meantime, the most unfavourable climate change scenarios was T2P-15 under which the precipitation declined by 15% and the temperature increased by 2℃, in the whole year. 相似文献
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The use of Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data acquired with multiple satellite sensors has become a necessity in research fields such as agriculture, Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) and changes in the natural environment. In this paper, vegetation 10-day composite (VGT-S10) NDVI data with a 1 km×1 km resolution, covering the period from April 1982 to December 2011 and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI data with a 8 km×8 km resolution, covering the period from April 1998 to December 2006 were used. The VGT NDVI covering the period from 2007 to 2011 was converted to the GIMMS NDVI for the same period. The vegetation trend during 1982 to 2011 was calculated using the extended NDVI data set.
Climate change has a large impact on the vegetation dynamics. A series of statistical analyses were employed to demonstrate the relationship between NDVI and meteorological data during 1982 to 2005. A multiple correlation analysis was applied to validate the association between the two climatic factors and monthly maximum NDVI (MNDVI). The partial correlation coefficient of MNDVI and each climate factor were calculated respectively to describe the singular influence of each meteorological variable. The results indicated that temperature made a significant positive influence on vegetation growth in the whole Loess Plateau. Precipitation is the most important climatic factor that closely correlates with MNDVI, particularly in arid and semi-arid environments. However, in some wet regions, precipitation is not a limiting factor on vegetation growth. 相似文献
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针对数值模拟参数选取主观性强、量化难度大的问题,在高精度无人机地形数据的基础上,通过对11起滑坡案例进行了407组参数反演实验,对结果准确度定量评价后,得到基于Massflow数值软件关键参数λ0的分布范围,进而运用小样本极大似然估计理论,分析区间边界长度对反演精度的影响,最终提出基于均匀分布的参数取值概率模型,并选用案例验证该模型的准确性。结果表明:地形约束会导致反演过程中所需的内聚力减小,反演获得的11组最优λ0的极差和方差分别为0.29、0.01,在置信度为95%下,极大似然法得到区间边界估计长度仅为0.0998,表明参数λ收敛性较好;反演过程中质心滑动距离ψ准确度优于堆积面积重叠率η,在λ0±0.05的范围,参数估计区间内任意值对模拟误差影响较小,评价指标ψ、η与λ0对应案例的相对误差不超过15%;所选案例验证了在置信度为95%下,以反演得到的最优参数区间边界中点构建概率分布函数的可行性和准确性,研究方法可为单体滑坡数值模拟风险评价提供理论支撑。 相似文献
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干海子滑坡位于大渡河流域,规模巨大.为研究该滑坡的稳定性,在对滑坡基本特征及变形破坏特征等深入研究的基础上,采用极限平衡法(Geo-slope软件)和有限差分法(FLAC-3D软件)对该滑坡的稳定性和应力应变特征进行了计算、模拟.稳定性计算模拟主要从深层、浅层及局部稳定三方面入手分析,计算模拟结果与滑坡的宏现地质现象均... 相似文献
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西安咸阳国际机场污水排放口潜在滑坡稳定性分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对西安咸阳国际机场污水排放口潜在滑坡的工程地质勘察结果表明,该滑坡处于极限平衡状态。采用B ish-op法参数反演和直快剪试验结果,分别用二维、三维极限平衡法和二维、三维有限元法,对该滑坡进行稳定性计算。结果表明:有限元法(二维、三维)的计算结果偏大,二维极限平衡法的计算结果最小;极限平衡法(二维、三维)与二维有限元法宜选取试验结果的大值平均值,三维有限元法则取试验结果的小值平均值较为合理。最后,根据三维有限元法的计算结果,提出了削坡压脚的防护措施。 相似文献
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在不同工况下,通过采取不同的岩土体物理力学参数来计算沙坝沟滑坡的稳定系数并分析影响因素,得到影响该滑坡稳定性的主要因素为降雨、地下水作用及人类工程活动,在一定条件下可能成为滑坡失稳破坏的诱导因素。最后为滑坡防治提出一些建议,对滑坡的预测和防护提供依据。 相似文献
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