Lessons in logistics from Somalia

By February 1981 the refugee relief operation in Somalia was close to breakdown. The Governor of Somalia and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) contracted the agency CARE to manage the logistics of the operation. By August 1981 over 99 % of food received at Mogadishu was reaching the camps. Here we describe this apparent success, and attempt to diagnose the contributing factors. Chief among these are dynamic leadership, 'systems' management, adaptability of personnel, the use of professional Indian food monitors in the camps, and the support given by the Government. The chief qualification on the success of the operation has been the continued dependency on expatriate expertise.
General conclusions are offered relating to the management of logistics in relief operations. The most important conclusion is that there is a prime need for logistics to be centralized in a single organization at the start of major emergencies. We point to the current inadequacy in an international relief system which fails to ensure this, and suggest that a new or existing part of the United Nations family be given a 'brief for in-country logistics' to become a UN Emergency Logistics Office.     

CURVE NUMBER HYDROLOGY IN WATER QUALITY MODELING: USES,ABUSES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Although the curve number method of the Natural Resources Conservation Service has been used as the foundation of the hydrology algorithms in many nonpoint source water quality models, there are significant problematic issues with the way it has been implemented and interpreted that are not generally recognized. This usage is based on misconceptions about the meaning of the runoff value that the method computes, which is a likely fundamental cause of uncertainty in subsequent erosion and pollutant loading predictions dependent on this value. As a result, there are some major limitations on the conclusions and decisions about the effects of management practices on water quality that can be supported with current nonpoint source water quality models. They also cannot supply the detailed quantitative and spatial information needed to address emerging issues. A key prerequisite for improving model predictions is to improve the hydrologic algorithms contained within them. The use of the curve number method is still appropriate for flood hydrograph engineering applications, but more physically based algorithms that simulate all streamflow generating processes are needed for nonpoint source water quality modeling. Spatially distributed hydrologic modeling has tremendous potential in achieving this goal.     

USING GEOLOGY TO IMPROVE FLOOD HAZARD MANAGEMENT ON ALLUVIAL FANS ‐ AN EXAMPLE FROM LAUGHLIN,NEVADA1

A study of the piedmont of the Newberry Mountains near Laughlin, Nevada, demonstrates that geologic information can improve the scientific basis of flood‐hazard management on alluvial fans in desert areas. Comparison of geologic information against flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs) reveals flaws in conventional methods for flood hazard delineation in this setting. Geologic evidence indicates that large parts of the Newberry piedmont have been isolated from significant flooding for at least the past 10,000 years. This contrasts with existing FIRMs that include large tracts of nonflood prone land in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood hazard zones and exclude areas of indisputably flood prone land from the regulatory flood plain. From the basis of the geology, flood hazards on at least one‐third of the piedmont are mischaracterized on the regulatory maps. The formal incorporation of geologic data into flood hazard studies on desert piedmonts could significantly reduce this type of discrepancy and substantially reduce the scope, hence cost, of more elaborate engineering studies and hazard mitigation strategies. The results of this study affirm the value of new Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommendations for characterizing alluvial fan flood hazards and support an argument for mandating geological studies in the regulatory process.     

Pollution and Self-Cleansing of an Urban River in a Developing Country: A Case Study in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Pollution and self-purification trends of an urban river namely, Msimbazi River, in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania, were investigated. Site investigations and water quality analyses were done. The river is polluted in terms of high organic and nutrient concentrations, low dissolved oxygen, and high counts of indicator organisms. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) concentrations were 27– 340 mg/L. Dissolved oxygen was found to be as low as 0.9 mg O₂/L. Bacteriological pollution increased with distance downstream of the river, a trend attributable to an increase in the catchment of pollution sources, which are on-site sanitation systems. Although the river has an appreciable self-purification capacity, the capacity is strained by persistent pollution overloads. The pollution plight of the river is attributable to its being flanked by expanding human habitats and vibrant industrial, institutional, and socio-economic activities. Provision for pretreatment of discharges into the river is put forward as a remedial measure for the observed pollution. Matching nontechnical and techno-social remedial measures are also recommended. These include sensitization of polluters on merits of environmental protection practices such as cleaner production and strict enforcement of environmental protection laws.     

中国的地震减灾系统工程

组织不同程度不同方式的综合减灾系统,有利于一个社会单元综合对待多种紧急的灾情事务,有利于政府处理紧急事务的专业化、资源的集中运用和行政管理与指挥的专职高效.地震减灾系统工程,原则上包括四个工作领域和十个工作方面,即:监测、预测(报)、评估(专业系统);防灾、抗灾、救灾(社会公共安全系统);安置-恢复、保险-援助、立法-教育(社会保障安全系统);规划-指挥(社会组织系统).     

Analysis of mechanics of side impact test defined in UN/ECE Regulation 129

Objective: This article discusses differences between a side impact procedure described in United Nations/Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) Regulation 129 and scenarios observed in real-world cases.

Methods: Numerical simulations of side impact tests utilizing different boundary conditions are used to compare the severity of the Regulation 129 test and the other tests with different kinematics of child restraint systems (CRSs). In the simulations, the authors use a validated finite element (FE) model of real-world CRSs together with a fully deformable numerical model of the Q3 anthropomorphic test device (ATD) by Humanetics Innovative Solution, Inc.

Results: The comparison of 5 selected cases is based on the head injury criterion (HIC) index. Numerical investigations reveal that the presence of oblique velocity components or the way in which the CRS is mounted to the test bench seat fixture is among the significant factors influencing ATD kinematics. The results of analyses show that the side impact test procedure is very sensitive to these parameters. A side impact setup defined in Regulation 129 may minimize the effects of the impact.

Conclusions: It is demonstrated that an artificial anchorage in the Regulation 129 test does not account for a rotation of the CRS, which should appear in the case of a realistic anchorage. Therefore, the adopted procedure generates the smallest HIC value, which is at the level of the far-side impact scenario where there are no obstacles. It is also shown that the presence of nonlateral acceleration components challenges the quality of a CRS and its headrest much more than a pure lateral setup.     

Forward collision warning system impact

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research is to use historical crash data to evaluate the potential benefits of both high- and low-speed automatic emergency braking (AEB) with forward collision warning (FCW) systems.

Methods: Crash data from the NHTSA’s NASS–General Estimates System (GES) and Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) databases were categorized to classify crashes by the speed environment, as well as to identify cases where FCW systems would be applicable.

Results: Though only about 19% of reported crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph, approximately 32% of all serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph. The percentage of crashes where FCW systems would be relevant has remained remarkably constant, varying between about 21 and 26% from 2002 to 2015. In 2-vehicle fatal crashes where one rear-ends the other, the fatality rates are actually higher in the struck vehicle (33%) than the striking vehicle (26%). The disparity is even greater when considering size–class differences, such as when a light truck rear-ends a passenger car (15 vs. 42% fatality rates, respectively).

Conclusions: NHTSA and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) proposed the Automatic Emergency Braking Initiative in 2015, which is intended to make AEB (also called crash-imminent braking) with FCW systems standard on nearly all new cars by September 2022. Twenty automakers representing 99% of the U.S. auto market voluntarily committed to the initiative. Though the commitment to safety is laudable, the AEB component of the agreement only covers low-speed AEB systems, with the test requirements set to 24?mph or optionally as low as 12?mph. The test requirements for the FCW component of the agreement include 2 tests that begin at 45?mph. Only 21% of relevant serious injury or fatal accidents occur in environments at speeds under 24?mph, whereas about 22% of serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph. This means that the AEB with FCW systems as agreed upon will cover only 21% of serious or fatal crashes and will not cover 22% of serious or fatal crashes. Because these systems are protective not only for the occupants of the vehicle where they are installed but also other vehicles on the roads, the data indicate that these systems should be a standard feature on all cars for high-speed as well as low-speed environments for the greatest social benefit.     

Advanced driver assistance systems for teen drivers: A national survey of teen and parent perceptions

Abstract

Objective: Recently developed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have the potential to compensate for teen driving errors and reduce overall crash risk. To date, very limited research has been conducted on the suitability of ADAS for teen drivers—the population most likely to benefit from such systems. The opportunity for ADAS to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes involving teen drivers is hindered when there is a lack of trust, acceptance, and use of those technologies. Therefore, there is a need to study teen and parent perceptions of ADAS to help identify and overcome any potential barriers to ADAS use.

Methods: A U.S. national survey was developed based on themes from previously conducted teen and parent ADAS focus groups. Survey topics included trust in ADAS, effect of ADAS on teen driver safety and driving behavior, effect of ADAS on skill development, data privacy, and cybersecurity. Responses included 5-point Likert scales and open-ended questions. The survey was managed through an online respondent panel by ResearchNow. Eligibility criteria included licensed teens (16–19 years) and parents of licensed teens. Teen and parent responses were compared using chi-square statistics in SAS 9.4.

Results: Two thousand and three (teens?=?1,000; parents?=?1,003) respondents qualified for and completed the survey between September 1 and September 20, 2017. Overall, teens (72%) and parents (61%) felt that ADAS would have a positive impact on transportation. However, teens were more likely to exhibit a positive outlook on ADAS, whereas parents were more likely to have a negative outlook (P?<?.01). Teens felt that ADAS would be useful during bad weather or drowsy driving but were less concerned than parents about ADAS intervention during their own risky driving (P?<?.01). The majority of teens (65%) and parents (71%) agreed that teens should learn to drive on vehicles without ADAS, with parents being more likely to agree than teens (P?<?.01). Parents (55%) were more likely than teens (47%) to be concerned about insurance companies keeping track of teen driving data (P?<?.01). Most respondents exhibited some concern of ADAS being susceptible to hacking (57%).

Conclusions: This study represents the first effort to quantify ADAS perceptions among teen drivers and their parents at the U.S. national level. These data highlight potential barriers to ADAS use among teen drivers, including a relative disinterest among teens for ADAS intervention during risky driving as well as concerns among both teens and parents that ADAS will inhibit skill development. These survey findings will help inform educational programs to accelerate fleet turnover and provide the foundation for ADAS optimization and evaluation studies among sociodemographic groups.     

Ecolinguistics,GIS, and Corpus Linguistics for the Analysis of the Rosemont Copper Mine Debate

This article details an integration of geographical information system (GIS) and corpus linguistics (CL) techniques for an ecolinguistic analysis of a contentious, environmental debate in Arizona, USA. The application of GIS and CL procedures enabled the mapping of place name mentions present within two interest group corpora as well as the mapping of particular meanings and representations of specific places prominent in the debate, that is, maps representing both places and the discursive representations of those places were produced. The corpus-aided analysis and the GIS visualizations exhibit how different interest groups refer to and represent geographical places within their texts and how these references to and representations of places index ideological positions towards the mine and the environment. This integrated CL–GIS approach to the study of environmental discourse provides insights into the discursive representation of place and the importance that references to places serve within environmental discourse. The article briefly discusses the ecolinguistics framework underpinning the work, explains the GIS–CL approach, displays and interprets corpus findings and GIS visualizations, and details implications for additional GIS–CL research for environmental discourse.     

Climate Change Coverage in Greek Newspapers: 2001–2008

This paper's aim is to identify the debate and document the coverage of climate change (CC) in the Greek national press and to assess to what extent this reporting exhibits the traits anticipated by the “polarized pluralist” character of the Greek “media system.” In order to do this, we analyzed articles published in three Greek quality newspapers (Kathimerini, Ta NEA, and Eleftherotypia) over the period 2001–2008 (N =2072). Our findings suggest a mixed picture: the Greek media debate is characterized by consensus on the anthropogenic causes of CC and on the promotion of renewable energy sources as a means for tackling Greek CC-related emissions. However when examining more specific/controversial CC-policy decisions, there is less evidence supporting a close link with the national character of Greek media reporting, with newspapers appearing to align themselves along partisan lines.