我国环境事件生发机理的Logistics回归分析

以近年来我国发生的有影响力的100个环境事件为研究对象,通过多元Logistics回归方法。利用环境污染生境、污染主体特征、污染物特征、对象敏感性、社会敏感性、治理难度和治理效果7类变量23类观测指标解析了影响环境事件发生的显著因素。以此为基础,分别给出了控制和预防大概率小损失、大概率大损失、小概率小损失和小概率大损失环境事件发生的政策建议。     

Computer‐Aided Negotiations of Water Disputes: An Interdisciplinary Role‐Playing Course

This study examines the evolution of a microworld created in a stakeholder process into educational materials used in a classroom setting. Microworlds have been used to stimulate learning through engagement in classroom and professional settings, but to our knowledge this is the first example that demonstrates utilization of the same process in both settings in the field of water resources, involving collaboration between the educational and professional sectors. An interdisciplinary role‐playing course in Computer‐Aided Negotiations (CAN) of water disputes is used as a case study. Upper‐level undergraduate students of varied academic backgrounds interacted in both the CAN process and river basin management model used in the CAN process as microworlds for one semester. We found evidence of meaningful engagement with both the process and model by all students. This finding has implications for engaging stakeholders without technical backgrounds in CAN processes. Students reported learning gains on surveys and pre/posttest scores improved, although only one item showed a statistically significant increase. During and after the teaching of this course, there was feedback of work products from the students to river basin managers. The course also provides the opportunity to learn the art of collaborative modeling through example and practice. Course materials are available at http://www.hydrologics.net/CAN_Course/.     

Inspiring Futures for European Local Governments!

Since 1994, more than 2000 European local governments have adopted the principles of the Aalborg Charter as a basis for local sustainability action. Now, ten years later in June 2004, these local governments will gather once again in Aalborg, Denmark at the Fourth European Conference on Sustainable Cities and Towns in Europe, Inspiring Futures—Aalborg+10. The Aalborg+10 event will celebrate a decade of European local sustainability action, evaluate progress and stagnation, and, more importantly, will adopt new commitments to move from Agenda to Action. The conference will be crucial for accelerating local sustainability in Europe and to move towards Local Action. Here an overview is provided on the context against which this important conference is set and its expected outcomes.     

Modeling of Low Temperature Geothermal District Heating Systems

Abstract

In this work, low temperature geothermal district heating systems with heat pumps have been studied and compared with fuel-oil boiler heating systems for intermittent and continuous regimes according to the optimum indoor air temperature and operational cost. Izmir Institute of Technology (IZTECH) Campus is taken as a case study. Various heat pump and boiler configurations are studied to meet required duty. Operational cost analysis for each alternative is conducted. According to the results, for IZTECH Campus the best alternative, which gives the optimum indoor air temperature and the lowest operational cost, is heat pump continuous regime.     

The lay system in commercial fisheries: Origin and implications

In most commercial fisheries, the crew is remunerated via some form of the lay system. Under the lay system, the crew is paid with a share of revenues or a share of revenues less costs. Naturally, the presence and the functioning of the lay system are well known and accepted as one of fishery's important institutions. Compared with share contracts in agriculture, however, the lay in fisheries has garnered relatively little research. This article has two goals. First, we provide an explanation for the existence of the lay system as an incentive mechanism to alleviate a potential team agency problem. This explanation of the lay system explains anomalies, such as the presence of wages in some fisheries, that are odds with the theory of pure risk sharing. Second we show the implications of the lay system for econometric modeling of fisheries and for understanding firm behavior. In general we conclude that models that fail to account explicitly for the incentive properties of shares are likely to provide poor representations of fishing firm behavior. The thrust of the paper is that the formation and working of the lay system are a fundamental force in fisheries influencing firm behavior and research results in a way that has been largely ignored.     

Physiological mechanisms of degradation of fish populations in acidified water bodies

Disturbances in fish that result from water acidification and related factors are analyzed in the context of generalizations based on the results of experimental and field studies. It is shown that low pH, monomeric aluminum, and other metal ions have an adverse effect on physiological processes in fish and are a major cause of their death in acidified lakes and rivers. The vulnerability of fish to low water pH at different stages of their life cycle and mechanisms of delayed mortality are discussed.     

A Systems Based Framework to Examine The Multi-contextural Application of the Sustainability Concept

A conceptual framework is generated through systems principles to explain sustainability’s wide diversity of interpretation and contextual application. Sustainability is reduced to a literal interpretation as the ability to sustain, and then expressed in simple systems as the ability of one system to sustain another system over time. This reinforces the importance of time in the sustainability debate, and suggests the concept can be legitimately applied to timeframes that have absolute limits. The framework is expanded to complex systems as the changing ability of one or many systems to sustain the changing requirements of one or many systems, over time. This accommodates multiple relations and system dynamics, and hints at the extraordinary complexity encompassed by the sustainability concept. Practical implications relate to the evolving meaning of sustainability, the need for continual change to remain sustainable, and that the sustainability concept can be validly applied to virtually any context or situation that exhibits a dimension of continuity. Derived criteria useful for clarifying contextual applications of sustainability include stating the how, what, why, who and for how long of sustainability, along with indicating the most appropriate hierarchical tier at which the concept is being applied.     

改进环境和职业健康安全管理整合体系适应GB/T24001-2004标准

建立与实施环境和职业健康安全管理整合体系有利于企业降低管理成本、提高管理效益。环境管理体系标准的改版加强了其与其他管理体系之间的协调性和兼容性,有利于进一步推动整合体系的建立与实施。在深入研究GB/T24001-2004版标准在结构框架、术语、要素名称及内容等方面变化情况的基础上,在环境和职业健康安全方针、目标、指标和方案的策划、资源,特别是基础设施的保障、合规性评价的完善、纠正措施和预防措施的实施以及一体化内部审核的开展等方面提出了建议对策,以供企业借鉴。改进环境和职业健康安全管理整合体系,以适应体系标准的发展变化,不断提高企业的现代安全健康管理水平是企业可持续发展的重要因素。     

Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation

The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice–wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions.