SWOT analysis for socio-ecological landscape variation as a precursor to the management of the mountainous Kanshi watershed,Salt Range of Pakistan

Variations in geo-environmental attributes differ strongly from those of urban anthropogenic structures. Similarly, these types of structures are self-directed and arranged and prone to abrupt process-related changes and modifications. Thus, there are many reasons why planned urbanization forms in association with disturbances in ecosystem mobility. The current research highlights these variations in the context of social–cultural assessments within the Jhelum River watershed, which strongly expresses urbanization structure development mechanisms. The climate ranges from semi-arid to subhumid subtropical and sub-mountainous climate, though the extreme temperatures may rise as high as 49.4°C in June and may drop as low as ?1.6°C in January. The rainfall is low in the southwest and gradually increases towards the northeast, whereas the Salt Range is the major topographic feature that controls climatic impacts and promotes sustainable development. Cross-disciplinary methods are adopted in this investigation to assess the social–ecological landscape system (SELS) in terms of its mobility and degree of urbanization. The Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda recognize that human livelihoods and the management of natural resources cannot be addressed separately. Investing in the sustainability of mountain communities and ecosystem conservation and protection will provide benefits for humanity as a whole. It pertains to the commensurate development of the SELS and its response to interruptions. Thus, a reliable SWOT analysis for management approaches is introduced that may enable the development of competencies that promote and lead towards rapid improvements in the sustainability of retrograde urban infrastructure, including watersheds.     

污水处理系统中硝化菌的菌群结构和动态变化

研究分析了4种不同工艺类型的城市污水处理厂中氨氧化细菌(AOB)和亚硝酸盐氧化细菌(NOB)的丰度及菌群结构.实时定量PCR结果表明4种工艺中AOB菌群的丰度范围为8.56×106~4.46×107cells/gMLSS;NOB菌群的丰度为3.37×108~1.53×109cells/gMLSS.每个工艺中Nitrospira都是优势NOB,占NOB菌群的88% 以上. A2O工艺冬季AOB和Nitrospira丰度比夏季均有所降低,这是导致冬季生物脱氮效果变差的主要原因.基于 amoA基因的系统发育分析结果显示所有的序列属于Nitrosomonas,其中Nitrosomonas oligotropha cluster 占克隆文库的60.1%,是AOB 种群中的优势菌属,Nitrosomonas-like cluster和 Nitrosomonas europaea cluster次之,分别占克隆文库的29.6%和9.1%.N. europaea cluster只在A2O工艺中出现,且在A2O工艺夏季污泥样品克隆文库中达到44.7%.低DO运行使N. europaea cluster成为优势AOB是A2O工艺夏季出现较高亚硝酸盐积累率的主要原因.研究结果证实了城市污水处理厂中优势AOB和NOB分别为Nitrosomonas和Nitrospira,硝化菌群占总菌群的1%~7%,其丰度、相对含量和菌群结构是影响硝化效果的主要因素.     

Introduction to the special issue of Ecological Modelling: “Advances in Modeling Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystems: Approaches, Validation, and Applications”

The development and application of ecosystem models in estuarine and coastal systems has grown exponentially over the past four decades. Models have become ensconced as major tools for both heuristic study of ecosystem structure and function as well as for informing management decisions, particularly with respect to cultural eutrophication. In recent years an ever-expanding toolbox of modeling approaches is being offered to complement traditional methods. This expansion of modeling in estuarine and coastal science was exemplified by four sessions devoted to modeling at the 2007 biennial conference of the Estuarine Research Federation in Providence, RI. We felt the time was right to propose a special session of Ecological Modelling to synthesize talks from these sessions to present the state of the art in coastal and estuarine modeling. The collection of papers contained in this special issue presents a diversity of traditional and novel modeling approaches, methods for assessing model validity and predictability, and the utility of models in management applications. We believe that together these papers provide an excellent overview of current approaches to modeling estuarine hydrodynamics, water quality, and ecosystem/food web dynamics, applications of complex and relatively simple modeling approaches, applications in both deep and shallow coastal systems, goals relevant for both heuristic and management applications, and perspectives based on traditional mechanistic model development as well as more recent alternative approaches.     

HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.     

地铁火灾防排烟设计探讨

介绍了防排烟系统设计在地铁火灾中的重要性,以及目前国内地铁车站在防排烟设计中有关排烟量的计算,区间隧道的排烟方式,排烟风亭与出入口之间的位置设计等方面所存在的一些问题及相关的解决方案。结合所引用的相关试验研究及其结论,经过对上述相关问题的分析和总结,针对地铁车站公共区和区间隧道的排烟方式和排烟装置,文章提出了适于国内地铁消防防排烟建设的措施,最后根据所引用的试验,对所提出的措施作出了分析,以得出结论。     

Influence of farm resource endowment on possibilities for sustainable development: a case study for vegetable farms in South Uruguay

In different parts of the world, there is an urgent need for redesigning and innovating farming systems. Such a process may be supported by model-based explorations that enable ex-ante evaluation of a broad range of alternatives. Since a variety of viable patterns of farm development exists related to farm resource endowment and farmer's strategy, model-based explorations should be able to capture the existing variation in resource endowment and strategies in order to have impact on strategic farm management. In this paper, we present an overview of the model-based explorative method based on the MILP model Farm Images, applied to explore options for sustainable development of vegetable farms in Canelón Grande, Uruguay. The method is used to gain insight into the impact of current farm resource endowment on the possibilities for sustainable development and on the resource use efficiency at farm scale. We maximized farm income for 128 different farm types in an environment-oriented scenario and in an income-oriented scenario. Farm types were defined by combining 4 farm sizes, 2 labor endowments, 4 irrigation endowments, 2 soil quality combinations and 2 mechanization levels. The results demonstrate a strong impact of farm resource endowment on possibilities for sustainable development, as well as synergy between labor, land and irrigated area on resource-use efficiency at farm scale. Farms with 10ha of land or less, representing 47% of the farms in the Canelón Grande region, could only achieve a family income higher than the average income of Uruguayan families when the irrigated area was ca. 40% of the farm area. The achievement of environmental targets was less costly in terms of income on farms with a low rather than high labor availability per unit area and on farms with irrigation facilities.     

湖南典型农田土壤有机碳含量及其演变趋势

以湖南省沅江市(28°42′～29°11′N、112°16′～112°56′E)为代表,通过典型样区密集取样分析和同一区域的历史资料比较,研究了洞庭湖区农业用地土壤有机碳的演变趋势,发现稻田土壤有机碳在最近25a中稳步增加,而改为旱地的土壤有机碳含量减少.2004年典型样区土壤有机碳均值为(26.66±4.93)g·kg^-1,主要分布区间为20～35g·kg^-1,比1979提高22.64%;其中耕作制度为双季稻的土壤有机碳含量,由1979年的20.29g·kg^-1提高到了2004年的28.12g·kg^-1,年均增加量约313.5mg·kg^-1(年递增率为1.15%);耕作制度为一季稻的土壤有机碳含量,由1979年的20.29g·kg^-1提高到了2004年的27.25g·kg^-1,年均增加量约278.3mg·kg^-1(年递增率为1.16%),耕作制度为水旱轮作的土壤有机碳含量,由1979年的20.29g·kg^-1提高到了2004年的23.90g·kg^-1,年均增加量约144.5mg·kg^-1(年递增率为0.78%),而改为旱地的土壤有机碳含量,由1979年的20.29 g·kg^-1降低到了2004年的18.40g·kg^-1,年均减少量约75.48mg·kg^-1(年递减率为0.37%).方差分析表明,稻田土壤有机碳的增加达到了极显著水平,改为旱地的土壤有机碳含量的减少未达到了显著水平.表明洞庭湖区不同利用类型的土地均是重要的固碳场所,农业用地的土壤有机碳库是大气CO₂循环的“汇”,而不是“源”.     

紫外氯胺组合消毒供水系统中病毒微生物的分布特征

为研究紫外氯胺组合消毒对供水系统中病毒微生物的影响特性,以生产规模紫外氯胺组合消毒供水系统为研究对象,应用宏基因组技术对供水系统中病毒微生物的迁移变化、群落结构和病毒宿主进行了分析.结果表明,紫外氯胺组合消毒工艺能降低病毒物种数(6.13％)和基因丰度(51.97％),但不能完全去除水中病毒微生物.对比美国环保署(US...     

蚁群算法在生命线网络系统抗震拓扑优化中的应用

近年来,遗传算法和模拟退火算法已经应用于网络系统的抗震拓扑优化,蚁群算法也已经成功应用到多个组合优化问题中。首先论述了生命线网络系统抗震拓扑优化模型,然后介绍了网络抗震可靠度分析的最小路递推分解算法。通过对优化问题解形式的分析,采用二进制编码的蚁群算法对优化模型进行了求解。最后,结合实例分析,并与遗传算法和模拟退火算法的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明,蚁群算法可以作为一种新的工具进行网络系统的优化设计。     

Reliability evaluation of fire alarm systems using dynamic Bayesian networks and fuzzy fault tree analysis

In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events.