Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental policies on the sustainability of agricultural systems. A particular challenge in this context is the consistent translation of a wide range of policy questions into scenarios that a modelling framework can assess. The present work defines a methodology for scenario-development in integrated policy assessment with specific emphasis on SEAMLESS-IF. After a general overview on scenario concepts for integrated policy assessment the adopted scenario concept and its development procedure is presented. They allow building integrated scenarios capturing the range of drivers of the assessed agricultural system in a consistent way across temporal and spatial scales. Then focus is on the particular procedures to translate the policy assessment questions into scenario parameters and to implement these parameters into SEAMLESS-IF. Two examples targeted at European and regional level combining integrated assessments of policy changes and technological innovations are considered to illustrate the SEAMLESS scenario concept. We conclude that the proposed methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios effectively supports integrated assessment in SEAMLESS-IF or even in other modelling frameworks.     

Modelling farm structural change for integrated ex-ante assessment: review of methods and determinants

This paper provides a literature review of methods and determinants relevant for modelling farm structural change within an integrated modelling chain. Environmental and economic impacts at farm level and individual farm responses to agricultural and agri-environmental policies strongly depend on characteristics like farm size, specialisation, and production intensity. Consequently, up-scaling results of corresponding farm type models in ex-ante assessment exercises requires comprehensive and valid predictions of the farm types’ future relevance under different scenarios. The paper reviews methods relevant to forecasting farm numbers in classes defined by farm typologies with the objective to identify (1) a preferable modelling approach and (2) empirically relevant determinants. Despite the literature's considerable size, even recent studies are rather limited in scope and typically restricted to a subset of farm types and one or very few regions. With regard to data availability, computational complexity and statistical validation procedures, Markov chain models are identified as the only generally suitable method for a broadly scoped modelling approach across European regions and a differentiated farm typology. However, other research on determinants of farm growth, the number of farm holders, farm succession as well as new multi-agent based simulation approaches hint at relevant explanatory variables previously not considered in Markov chain analyses. Their impact seems testable in more ambitious cross-regional and cross-farm type setups.     

CALFED and the quest for optimal institutional fragmentation

Environmental problems are typically addressed by fragmented governance institutions. Fragmentation can present serious barriers to resolving environmental conflicts, but can also offer benefits. The CALFED experience should not be seen as demonstrating that unified governance is necessarily superior. Rather, it is a reminder that a fragmented governance strategy is not likely to succeed without strong leadership and tools for resolving inter-agency conflicts.     

系统工程在弹药减压式烧毁中的应用

将安全系统工程理论应用于弹药减压式烧毁安全评价,通过分析影响安全水平的处废环境、防护环境等因素,建立了弹药减压式烧毁安全事故树,确定其危险因素并对其重要度进行了分析,据此从烧毁场地选择、作业过程中的安全规程等方面提出了相应的安全措施。     

对中国环境管理体制的思考及建议

中国目前生态环境形势严峻,环境管理体制存在诸多问题。通过分析这些问题,政府在环境管理中的职责和重要性随即体现出来,而一些相应的建议也即被提出。生态保护和环境建设是政府义不容辞的责任。只有依靠政府的领导,加快环境管理体制的完善,才能更好地解决中国严峻的生态环境问题。     

南昌市区地下水与地下水地源热泵系统

南昌市区地下浅部广泛分布有第四系砂砾石孔隙地下水,水量丰富,大部分地方水质较好,地下水的这些性质符合地下水水源热泵系统用水水源的要求。近年来南昌市区地下水地源热泵系统已陆续使用,但经验较少,回灌技术不成熟,监测和管理工作尚不到位和完善,现阶段热泵系统应以局部试用为好,在试用中做好与热泵系统使用有关的水文地质勘察和水资源论证、地下水回灌、热泵用水和地下水定期监测以及地下水地源热泵系统行政管理等各项工作,逐渐积累经验,使今后热泵系统使用地下水真正做到高效、安全和环保。     

新疆区域创新系统演化发展历程与动力研究

为科学把握新疆维吾尔自治区区域创新系统的演进脉络和规律,将新疆区域创新系统40余年的发展历程划分为萌芽、过渡、构建与完善4个阶段,从环境要素、创新主体、企业创新、结网程度4个方面对各阶段进行盘点总结,分析推动区域创新系统发展的动力因素,总结出新疆区域创新系统发展的1个核心与4条历史主线,并得出两点基本经验:一是政府核心科技政策的实时引导与政策创新始终是系统发展的重要牵引力;二是系统的开放与市场化的深入始终为新疆区域创新系统发展的源动力。     

淡水系统中4种塑料颗粒的老化过程及DOC产物分析

淡水系统中的微塑料污染及其生态效应已经引起国内外学者的广泛关注,但关于不同类型微塑料在自然环境中的老化研究较少.为探究不同类型微塑料的老化过程,分析老化产物,以4种水体中常见的微塑料聚丙乙烯（polystyrene,PS）、低密度聚乙烯（low-density polyethylene,LDPE）、聚丙烯（polypropylene,PP）和聚羟基丁酸（polyhydroxybutyrate,PHB）为研究对象,进行了40 d的自然光老化实验.结果表明：①在老化过程中,4种不同类型塑料老化析出液水质指标pH、ORP、EC和DO均产生不同程度的上升或下降趋势.②经扫描电镜（scanning electron microscope,SEM）观测发现LDPE表面形态变化最大,已经形成裂纹和孔洞.傅立叶红外检测发现,实验中LDPE的羰基指数增加程度最大,增加了31.48%.③微塑料老化会产生溶解态产物,即溶解性有机碳（dissolved organic carbon,DOC）,DOC质量浓度随老化时间增加而增加,与本底值相比,老化40 d的PHB、PP和LDPE微塑料析出液中DOC质量浓度增加显著,分别增加了61.29%、69.49%和89.15%.以上结果表明经自然光照射,塑料会在自然水体中出现明显的老化,并释放出有机物,由此带来的生态效应应受到更多的关注和研究.     

Neighborhood density and travel mode: new survey findings for high densities

At high densities, land uses get close enough to each other to support walk, bike, and transit modes above 60% of total trips. The San Francisco Bay Area census was used to define five density levels: rural, exurban, suburban, central city, and urban core. The urban core definition, over 50 persons per neighborhood acre, is much denser than in other research. The California Household Transportation Survey supplied new data on block group area, population, trip stages, trip distances, trip time, and travel mode by density. The National Household Transportation Survey supplied block group population, density, travel mode, and income data. Both sources show a strong nonlinear relationship going from rural to urban core: auto miles and trips decrease as walk and transit miles and trips increase. With density, people travel fewer miles and spend less time traveling. High-income households in dense areas travel far fewer miles than those living at higher densities. With sufficient density, complementary features play a role in furthering mode shift. For planning purposes, the need for parking greatly declines. The findings are a basis for similar research elsewhere on high densities and complementary features.     

Evaluating institutional fit for the conservation of threatened species

Recovery and conservation of threatened species require adequate institutional responses. We tested an approach to systematically identify and measure how an institutional framework acknowledges threats and required responses for the recovery of endangered species. We measured institutional functional fit with a drivers-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) model integrated with a quantitative text mining method and qualitative analysis of statutory instruments to examine regulatory responses that support the recovery of 2 endangered species native to Australia, the bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata) and the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus). The key components of the DPSIR model were present in the institutional framework at statutory and operational levels, but some institutional gaps remained in the protection and recovery of the Eastern Bristlebird, including feral predator control, weed control, and grazing management in some locations. However, regulatory frameworks varied in their geographic scope and the application and implementation of many instruments remained optional. Quantitative text mining can be used to quickly navigate a large volume of regulatory documents, but challenges remain in selection of terms, queries of co-occurrence, and interpretation of word frequency counts. To inform policy, we recommend that quantitative assessments of institutional fit be complemented with qualitative analysis and interpreted in light of the sociopolitical and institutional context.