农业资源利用模式体系构建的理论探讨--以江汉-洞庭平原为例

针对我国当前农业资源合理利用方法途径的系统性与实践性不强的问题,从长期的农业生产实践出发,应用系统论的研究方法,对农业资源利用方式与地域单元的要素组成及其结构层次进行了系统分析,构建了农业资源利用模式的三级体系框架,并分别按地域单元与行政区划设置了相应级别的空间尺度。同时,在此模式体系框架下,以江汉—洞庭平原为研究区域,进行了农业资源利用模式体系构建的实例分析,探讨了农业资源利用模式的应用与发展,为农业资源高效合理利用提供了可操作的指导框架与实施途径。     

安全管理决策支持系统的管理控制框架探讨

从安全管理的特性出发,用控制框图说明了安全管理控制系统的组成。在论述安全管理决策的内容及其最重。要的问题的过程中,提出了安全管理对象化的思想。利用6步描述方法解析了安全管理问题,并构建了安全决策支持系统的4 4模块化框架,为系统的研究与开发奠定基础。     

厌氧迁移式污泥床反应器的水力特性研究

采用脉冲示踪法以NH4Cl作示踪剂,通过其在反应器中的停留时间分布来研究厌氧迁移式污泥床反应器(AMBR)的水力特性。反应器的结构决定了反应器的流态,从而控制着可能达到的处理效率。为优化设计反应器结构研究了反应器的构型、导流板与器壁间距对水力特性的影响。研究发现,反应器的流态介于推流式和完全混合式之间,带有导流板的反应器推流程度更大一些,而底部有孔的反应器推流程度弱,反应器的水力死区较小,均小于20%;导流板与器壁间距为8 mm时最佳。     

A system dynamics model for the management of the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) in the Bay of Arcachon (France)

The Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve, 1850) is one of the mollusc species that, driven mainly by the shellfish market industry, has extended throughout the world, far beyond the limits of its original habitat. The Manila clam was introduced into France for aquaculture purposes, between 1972 and 1975. In France, this venerid culture became increasingly widespread and, since 1988, this species has colonised most of the embayments along the French Atlantic coast. In 2004, this development resulted in a fishery of ca. 520 t in Arcachon Bay.     

Optimization of tourism impacts within protected areas by means of genetic algorithms

The search for a balance between nature conservation and tourism development within protected areas is becoming an increasingly multifaceted problem worldwide, as outlined by an increasing number of authors and highlighted at several international events. Since it is unlikely that all management objectives will reach their optimum values simultaneously, an optimization approach is required to meet multiple, conflicting goals and to obtain an overall trade-off in terms of the conceived objectives.     

Foliage profiles of individual trees determine competition,self-thinning,biomass and NPP of a Cryptomeria japonica forest stand: A simulation study based on a stand-scale process-based forest model

A simulation study was carried out to investigate simultaneously the effects of eco-physiological parameters on competitive asymmetry, self-thinning, stand biomass and NPP in a temperate forest using an atmosphere–vegetation dynamics interactive model (MINoSGI). In this study, we selected three eco-physiological relevant parameters as foliage profiles (i.e. vertical distribution of leaf area density) of individual trees (distribution pattern is described by the parameter η), biomass allocation pattern in individual tree growth (χ) and the maximum carboxylation velocity (V_max). The position of the maximal leaf area density shifts upward in the canopy with increasing η. For scenarios with η < 4 (foliage concentrated in the lowest canopy layer) or η > 12 (foliage concentrated in the uppermost canopy layer), a low degree of competitive asymmetry was produced. These scenarios resulted in the survival of subordinate trees due to a brighter lower canopy environment when η < 4 or the generation of spatially separated foliage profiles between dominant and subordinate trees when η > 12. In contrast, competition between trees was most asymmetric when 4 ≤ η ≤ 12 (vertically widespread foliage profile in the canopy), especially when η = 8. In such cases, vertically widespread foliage of dominant trees lowered the opportunity of light acquisition for subordinate trees and reduced their carbon gain. The resulting reduction in carbon gain of subordinate trees yielded a higher degree of competitive asymmetry and ultimately higher mortality of subordinate trees. It was also shown that 4 ≤ η ≤ 12 generated higher self-thinning speed, smaller accumulated NPP, litter-fall and potential stand biomass as compared with the scenarios with η < 4 or η > 12. In contrast, our simulation revealed small effects of χ or V_max on the above-mentioned variables as compared with those of η. In particular, it is notable that greater V_max would not produce greater potential stand biomass and accumulated NPP although it has been thought that physiological parameters relevant to photosynthesis such as V_max influence dynamic changes in forest stand biomass and NPP (e.g. the greater the V_max, the greater the NPP). Overall, it is suggested that foliage profiles rather than biomass allocation or maximum carboxylation velocity greatly govern forest dynamics, stand biomass, NPP and litter-fall.     

Simulating forest succession after blowdown events: The crucial role of space for a realistic management

Ecological patterns vary in space and time. Therefore, when using dynamic models in ecology, the spatial aspect should not be neglected prematurely since it could possibly change the model outcomes to a considerable extent. In view of this problem, we describe here a method how to construct a non-spatial version from a spatially explicit simulation model. The principle idea is to suppress the spatial correlations of cells in a grid in time by continuously re-assigning a random neighbourhood for each cell on the grid. Since this procedure actually eliminates the spatial dimensions, it allows to quantify the unadulterated impact of spatial processes on the model results. To illustrate an important application of this approach in the context of forest management we use a grid-based model that simulates succession of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) at mountainous sites after blowdown events. The output of this model is compared with the results of the deduced non-spatial version of this model regarding the predicted amount of re-growing trees. The non-spatial version dramatically overestimates the number of spruce trees on different microsites. Thus, the uncritical use of the non-spatial model might give reason to wrong management decisions that are based on too optimistic predictions. In practice, this may lead to dangerous situations, especially in mountain forests serving as protection against avalanches and landslides. This example demonstrates the successful applicability of our approach. Our method can be interpreted as a contribution to an extended sensitivity analysis: it analyses the sensitivity of the results due to structural changes of the model. This sensitivity allows one to estimate the redundancy or the necessity of spatially explicit processes in a model with regard to the parsimony principle of modelling. Since our approach is not dependent on special features of the simulation model used here, it is assumed to be applicable for other spatial models, too, and can thus be considered of general interest for a diligent model analysis.     

A phenomenological model without dispersal kernel to model species migration

Phenomenological approaches to model species migration are usually based on kernel-based methods. These methods require a good knowledge of the dispersal agent behaviour for a given species. They also calculate the location of individuals independently to each other (except the mother plant) and then suppress some of them according to additional interactions such as competition, facilitation and recruitment. In this paper, we propose to use a new phenomenological method, the Gibbs method, to model tree species migration at large scale. The Gibbs method handles the location of adult individuals in terms of pairwise interactions described by a potential function. This function summarizes the set of known and unknown factors determining the spatial distribution of the individuals (or cohorts). The principle of the Gibbs method is to minimize the sum of all pairwise interactions, also called the cost function, in order to optimize the spatial point pattern according to the chosen potential function.     

天津滨海新区湿地环境演化与景观格局动态

从历史演化和景观格局动态变化两个方面对天津滨海新区湿地生态系统的演变进行了研究。历史上天津地区为海洋,自滨海新区成陆以来,经历了多次的海浸和洪水淹没,海浸期间发生陆地湿地化,海退和洪水退却时发生水体湿地化。本文总结了自地质时期以来的历史演化模型。同时在GIS和RS技术支持下,运用FRAG-STATS软件,研究了1979-2008年滨海新区湿地景观格局动态变化特征。结果表明,随着滨海新区的发展和土地利用强度的增大,研究区景观斑块数量增加、平均斑块面积减少的趋势比较明显,景观呈现破碎化的趋势;总体上,近30年中,滨海新区湿地总面积变化不大,并没有大面积持续减少。景观破碎程度从1979年开始持续上升,中间略有波动,但总体上升较快。     

Inherently safer sustained casing pressure testing for well integrity evaluation

This paper presents the use of a model to predict sustained casing pressure (SCP), from early pressure buildup data, as a basis for inherently safer well integrity testing. Inherently safer principles aim to eliminate or reduce the hazards by design rather than by using protective features. SCP, a well integrity issue exhibited in many wells, is any measurable pressure that rebuilds after being bled down and attributable to causes other than artificially applied pressure or temperature fluctuations in the well. Intrusion of gas, resulting in SCP, can occur because of poor cement bond in the casing or cement deterioration. Gas entering the annulus migrates to the wellhead and represents a hazard due to increased wellhead pressure and the gas inventory. Compromised well integrity can have catastrophic consequences on both environmental and safety aspects.Most regulations require the monitoring, testing and, eventually, the elimination of SCP. However, test data analysis is predominantly qualitative and limited to arbitrary criteria. Due to the high percentage of wells that present SCP, accurate, safe and preferably fast testing methods are needed. This paper implements an analytical model, rooted in the transport processes and thermodynamics of the system, to predict pressure profiles and gas accumulation during SCP testing from early-time pressure buildup data. The amount of gas accumulated during different testing criteria, being 1) current practices and 2) early diagnostic by the analytical model, is calculated and compared. Results show that using the analytical model as a predictive tool, testing time is reduced significantly, thereby limiting the amount of gas accumulated and reducing the risk. This makes the testing procedure inherently safer as well as less time consuming.