Reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems subject to different demand modes

Safety instrumented systems (SISs) are commonly used in the process industry, to respond to hazardous events. In line with the important standard IEC 61508, SISs are generally classified into two types: low-demand systems and high-demand systems. This article explores this classification by studying the SIS reliability for varying demand rates, demand durations, and test intervals. The approach is based on Markov models and is exemplified by two simple system configurations. The SIS reliability is quantified by the probability of failure on demand (PFD) and the frequency of entering a hazardous state that will lead to an accident if the situation is not controlled by additional barriers. The article concludes that very low-demand systems are similar and may be treated as a group. The same applies to very high-demand system. Between these group, there is a rather long interval where the demand rate is neither high-demand nor low-demand. These medium-demand systems need a specific treatment. The article shows that the frequency of entering into a hazardous state increases with the demand rate for low-demand systems, while it is nearly independent of both the demand rate and the demand duration for high-demand systems. The PFD is an adequate measure for the SIS reliability for low-demand systems, but may be confusing and difficult to interpret for high-demand systems.     

碳链延长技术在有机资源回收领域的研究进展

本文综述了碳链延长技术在处理有机废料及碳资源回收领域的优势,梳理了其发展历程为后续研究提供方向指导,阐释了其生化代谢途径中物质转变、能量传递和信号传输等机理,验证了其延长为丁酸、己酸等产物的热力和动力学可行性,总结归纳了其已优化的关键反应参数和已运行的工程试验案例等方面内容.本文为揭示细胞碳链延长机制和应用碳链延长技术于实际废料治理提供理论基础和建议展望.     

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.     

A Markov model for assessing ecological stability properties

Ecological systems are frequently modeled as dynamic systems. It is natural then to use the techniques of dynamic systems theory to analyze such models. However, the methods and results that are produced by dynamic systems theory do not always capture the aspects of ecological systems that are of greatest interest to managers and decision-makers. We identify some of the challenges of using dynamic systems theory to explore ecological systems and propose an alternative approach that emphasizes the understanding of transient effects in light of uncertainty and variability. We illustrate this method by an examination of a model for phosphorus levels in fresh water lakes.     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

Beyond Substantial Equivalence: Ethical Equivalence

The concept of substantial equivalence,introduced for the risk assessment of geneticallymodified (GM) food, is a reducing concept because itignores the context in which these products have beenproduced and brought to the consumer at the end of thefood chain. Food quality cannot be restricted to meresubstance and food acts on human beings not only atthe level of nutrition but also through theirrelationship to environment and society. To make thiscontext explicit, I will introduce an ``equivalencescale' for the evaluation of food chains (GM or notGM). By contrast with substantial equivalence, whichinvolves mainly quantitative, analytical methods ofevaluation, ``qualitative equivalence' refers to ``less'or non-substantial factors that require new methodsof evaluation based on qualitative principles.``Ethical equivalence' refers to factors that show themoral value contained in food products. To analyze thedifferent levels at which ethics is needed in foodchains, I will use the French principles: ``Liberty,Equality, Fraternity,' or freedom, equality,solidarity, and add a fourth principle:sustainability. Sustainability, solidarity, andfreedom can be applied to the evaluation ofenvironmental, socio-economic, and socio-culturalethical equivalence, respectively. Equality refers tojustice and should operate so as to guarantee thatsustainability, solidarity, and freedom are satisfied.I suggest that ethics can provide a basis for arenewal of the food chain concept. Besides QualityAssurance, it is now essential to develop an ``EthicalAssurance' and this equivalence scale could provide abasis to set up ``Ethical Assurance Standards' (EAS)for food chains.     

改善链条炉燃烧的几种有效方法

采用燃煤布湿和安装分层燃烧装置 ,较好地解决了锅炉燃烧不完全的问题 ,降低了煤耗 ,提高了锅炉的热效率     

投放底栖动物强化水耕植物过滤法的净水效果

在水耕植物过滤法净水系统中的植物栽培廊道中,通过投放2种底栖动物螺蛳和泥鳅延长食物链后,TN、TP、TOC、Chl.a的去除效果均比未投放底栖动物的廊道有所提高.投放螺蛳的效果最为显著,TN、TP、Chl.a的去除率增幅分别达54%、27%和26%,比较了不同廊道中底泥的硝化、反硝化潜力,投放螺蛳的廊道其反硝化潜力最大,为9.08×10^-7g/(g·h),而硝化潜力最小,为3.65×10^-6g/(g·h).除氮能力大幅增加的原因,是由于螺蛳的引入增加了物质在食物链营养级传递中的损耗,另一方面是由于螺蛳的存在提高了底泥的反硝化潜力.     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

定量RT-PCR检测雌二醇诱导的青鳉鱼基因表达

采用实时定量RT-PCR(Q-RT-PCR)方法,对暴露60d雌二醇的雄性青鳉鱼肝脏内卵黄蛋白原(VTG)和卵壳前体蛋白(CHG)基因表达进行研究.结果表明,0.1,1.0,10.0,100.0ng/L的雌二醇使肝脏内VTG-I,VTG-II,CHG-L和CHG-H基因表达被显著诱导.其中VTG-I显示出较好的剂量—效应关系,是较为理想的生物标记物基因.在0.1ng/L雌二醇暴露组中,VTG-I和VTG-II的表达量均显著高于对照组(P<0.05),表明本方法具有检测环境中低剂量雌二醇暴露的潜力.