Bayesian analysis under ordered functions of parameters

Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed.     

城市防灾设施建设供应链管理模式与战略

城市防灾设施建设是一项复杂的系统工程,是典型的上下游供应链长、协调关系多、投资周期长、不确定性和风险程度高的项目.应用供应链管理的理论,结合我国城市防灾设施建设项目的特点,分析了城市防灾设施建设供应链管理的概念与意义,提出了城市防灾设施建设供应链管理的基本模式和特征,并针对我国城市防灾设施建设管理的现状,阐述了我国城市防灾设施建设中政府、有关企业与社会机构等方面实施供应链管理的战略任务.     

Design and use of group-specific primers and probes for real-time quantitative PCR

Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has gained popularity as a technique to detect and quantify a specific group of target microorganisms from various environmental samples including soil, water, sediments, and sludge. Although qPCR is a very useful technique for nucleic acid quantification, accurately quantifying the target microbial group strongly depends on the quality of the primer and probe used. Many aspects of conducting qPCR assays have become increasingly routine and automated; however, one of the most important aspects, designing and selecting primer and probe sets, is often a somewhat arcane process. In many cases, failed or non-specific amplification can be attributed to improperly designed primer-probe sets. This paper is intended to provide guidelines and general principles for designing group-specific primers and probes for qPCR assays. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these guidelines by reviewing the use of qPCR to study anaerobic processes and biologic nutrient removal processes. qPCR assays using group-specific primers and probes designed with this method, have been used to successfully quantify 16S ribosomal Ribonucleic Acid (16S rRNA) gene copy numbers from target methanogenic and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in various laboratory- and full-scale biologic processes. Researchers with a good command of primer and probe design can use qPCR as a valuable tool to study biodiversity and to develop more efficient control strategies for biologic processes.     

Mulberry-silkworm food chain--a templet to assess heavy metal mobility in terrestrial ecosystems

Assessment of the food chain mobility of heavy metals inthe natural ecosystem receives more attention nowadays. Inthe present study, mulberry-silkworm food chain has beenfocused as a templet to assess the biomobility of heavymetals in soil-higher plant-insect hierarchy. Both in thecase of Cd and Cu treatments, higher mobility wasobserved in the level-1 (soil–root) followed by level-3(leaf–larva), level-4 (larvae–faecal) and level-2(root–leaf). Consequently, roots accumulated more amountsof Cd and Cu, with a limited transport to the leaves.Among the two metals (Cd and Cu) tested, in the plant,the transfer potential of Cd exceeds that of Cu. Whereasin the case of leaf–larval transfer, Cu precedes overCd. Accumulation of Cd and Cu in all the levels (1–4)tested showed a concentration dependent increase, except inthe level 4 (larva–faecal) of Cd treatment where adeclining trend was noticed.     

农药污染与朱鹮

通过对我国重点保护的一级野生动物“东方宝石”-朱鹮栖息地农药污染状况的调查及研究表明:朱鹮已被通过生物链受到农药的污染,应引起有关方面的重视。     

Spatial modelling of the probability of obtaining a detectable concentration of ammonia in Moreton Bay, Australia

Ammonia is an important water quality variable, which in excess, can be detrimental to waterways and their ecosystems. In the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program in South-east Queensland ammonia is monitored monthly, however, often more than 50% of the ammonia observations in Moreton Bay are below detection limit, making it difficult to draw useful inferences. In this paper a clipped Gaussian random field is used to spatially model and map the probability of detectable concentration of ammonia. The methodology is applied to the Moreton Bay samples collected in February 2005. The results suggest that for this month the oceanic impacted areas have higher probability of detectable ammonia concentration than the areas closer to the main sources of anthropogenic inputs.     

关于雾灾几个相关问题的探讨

首先,基于灾害系统的理论,构建了雾灾灾害系统模式和灾害链模式,提出了以机场和高速公路为承灾体的雾灾灾害链.其次,构建了雾灾承灾体脆弱性评价体系和模型,并对中国雾灾脆弱性分省区进行了评价,结果表明雾灾脆弱性高值区是上海、北京、天津3市;次高值区是江苏、山东、海南、广东等省.最后,以2002年12月的一次大雾天气为例,运用灰色关联度方法,着重对机场客运的雾灾灾情进行了评估,以期为雾灾损失厘定和防灾减灾提供科学的依据.     

全氟化合物的生物富集效应研究进展

研究污染物的生物富集效应,对于预测污染物在生物体内的含量、建立环境标准以及评估污染物的生态风险具有重要的意义。结合近年来国内外报道的有关全氟化合物（PFCs）的生物浓缩因子（BCF）、生物富集因子（BAF）、生物放大因子（BMF）和营养级放大因子（TMF）等参数,对PFCs的生物富集效应及其影响因素进行了综述。研究结果表明,氟代碳原子数高于7的PFCs一般在生物体或食物链（网）上具有生物富集效应,而氟代碳原子数低于7的PFCs的生物富集效应较低。PFCs的理化性质（碳链长度、碳链末端基团类型和是否含有支链等）、生物的种类及其生理生化参数（体长、体重和性别等）和环境条件（生态系统的组成、水温和污染物含量等）等都影响PFCs在生物体内或食物链（网）上的富集。综观当前研究成果,PFCs在食物链（网）上生物放大效应研究主要集中于极地地区海洋食物网,应加强其他区域（特别是典型污染区域）、各种类型食物网（如淡水食物网和陆生食物网）上PFCs的生物富集效应及其影响因素研究,为全面评估PFCs的生态风险提供基础数据。     

Characterization of the genes involved in nitrogen cycling in wastewater treatment plants using DNA microarray and most probable number-PCR

To improve nitrogen removal performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), it is essential to understand the behavior of nitrogen cycling communities, which comprise various microorganisms. This study characterized the quantity and diversity of nitrogen cycling genes in various processes of municipal WWTPs by employing two molecular-based methods:most probable number-polymerase chain reaction (MPN-PCR) and DNA microarray. MPN-PCR analysis revealed that gene quantities were not statistically different among processes, suggesting that conventional activated sludge processes (CAS) are similar to nitrogen removal processes in their ability to retain an adequate population of nitrogen cycling microorganisms. Furthermore, most processes in the WWTPs that were researched shared a pattern:the nirS and the bacterial amoA genes were more abundant than the nirK and archaeal amoA genes, respectively. DNA microarray analysis revealed that several kinds of nitrification and denitrification genes were detected in both CAS and anaerobic-oxic processes (AO), whereas limited genes were detected in nitrogen removal processes. Results of this study suggest that CAS maintains a diverse community of nitrogen cycling microorganisms; moreover, the microbial communities in nitrogen removal processes may be specific.

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Neighborhood Level Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Criminal Violence

Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides. Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common. In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing from the fixed effects portion of the model.