管制员认知偏差测评量表的编制与应用

利用信息加工模型,结合管制工作的特殊性,编制出管制员认知偏差测评量表。利用该量表对管制员认知偏差进行测量,结果表明管制员管制过程中存在较大的认知偏差;不同性别及年龄的管制员在认知偏差方面存在显著差异。     

Designing regional-level stakeholder engagement processes: striving for good governance while meeting the challenges of scale

Stakeholder engagement processes have sought to ensure that state government meets public trust and good governance obligations to citizens. As the expectations of stakeholders and state agencies change, and management focuses on landscape-level interventions, a change in the level at which agencies engage the public is needed. This involves tradeoffs, as different levels call for different engagement design and implementation considerations. To understand how these differences affect decision making, we examine a regional engagement model for deer management in New York that was piloted to replace a sub-regional model. We identify concerns with the old model, objectives for the redesigned model, and explain the logistical and good governance considerations that informed its design. We share our evaluation of the model's process and outcomes, including implications for program design and scale. Overall, despite the pilot model's attention to design components aimed at addressing potential barriers to regional engagement as well as limitations of the previous engagement model, the pilot did not meet many of its objectives, especially those related to representation, resulting in some of the same concerns associated with the model it was intended to enhance and replace. Implications of this for regional-level engagement efforts are discussed.     

Towards Real‐Time Continental Scale Streamflow Simulation in Continuous and Discrete Space

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts floods at approximately 3,600 locations across the United States (U.S.). However, the river network, as defined by the 1:100,000 scale National Hydrography Dataset‐Plus (NHDPlus) dataset, consists of 2.7 million river segments. Through the National Flood Interoperability Experiment, a continental scale streamflow simulation and forecast system was implemented and continuously operated through the summer of 2015. This system leveraged the WRF‐Hydro framework, initialized on a 3‐km grid, the Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge river routing model, operating on the NHDPlus, and real‐time atmospheric forcing to continuously forecast streamflow. Although this system produced forecasts, this paper presents a study of the three‐month nowcast to demonstrate the capacity to seamlessly predict reach scale streamflow at the continental scale. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of reservoirs, through a case study in Texas. Validation of the uncalibrated model using observed hourly streamflow at 5,701 U.S. Geological Survey gages shows 26% demonstrate PBias ≤ |25%|, 11% demonstrate Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ≥ 0.25, and 6% demonstrate both PBias ≤ |25%| and NSE ≥ 0.25. When evaluating the impact of reservoirs, the analysis shows when reservoirs are included, NSE ≥ 0.25 for 56% of the gages downstream while NSE ≥ 0.25 for 11% when they are not. The results presented here provide a benchmark for the evolving hydrology program within the NWS and supports their efforts to develop a reach scale flood forecasting system for the country.     

关于大型商贸市场消防安全设计的探讨

借鉴国内外消防安全设计成功经验,跟踪国际火灾科学研究,探求一种适用于大型商贸市场的消防安全设计。以具体实例为对象,详细分析了该类建筑的建筑特点及火灾的危险性,采用了非常规性的消防安全设计理念,以满足大型商贸市场的现代化经营方式及消防安全的需要,其阐述和讨论结果可为进一步进行消防安全设计提供参考。     

道路危险货物运输企业安全性评价研究

在分析道路危险货物运输企业安全性评价特点的基础上,结合相关评价指标体系,引入李克特量表法构建安全性评价量表,并基于物元分析理论进行道路危险货物运输企业安全性评价。最后对四川省5家道路危险货物运输企业进行实例分析,结果表明,该评价模型较传统评价方法可更准确地给出安全性等级评价结果,并能够较完整地反映企业安全管理的综合水平。     

Gemstone mining as a development cluster: A study of Brazil’s emerald mines

For many centuries, emeralds have bejeweled the rich and famous all over the world. Emeralds have also made many millionaires overnight, sometimes by chance, as in some of the cases reported in this study. On the other hand, even though emerald mining has brought some economic benefits, many of these have remained at the top of the production chain. In many cases mining activities have caused a number of negative social and environmental impacts locally. Working conditions in small mines are very poor in general: with bad ventilation, high temperatures, long working hours, lack of safety, informal working contracts and no health or life insurance. Environmental impacts can be significant, such as widespread deforestation, erosion of abandoned mines, and soil and water pollution in streams. The economic and social public benefits can be minimal. Even when taxes on gem mining are relatively low, much of the mining local activity is informal and the high value-added formal activities take place outside the mining regions. This study aims to understand the dynamics of emerald mining and its impact on local development using the concept of clusters. The research analyzes three case studies in Brazil: Campos Verdes/Santa Terezinha (Goias state), Nova Era/Itabira (Minas Gerais state) and Carnaiba/Campo Formoso (Bahia state). Emerald mining regions attract many migrants, increasing the demand for public services (infrastructure, health, education, etc.), but local governments are unable to provide for them because the activity produces little tax revenue. In the end, there is a growing mismatch between demand and supply of public services, leading to a series of social and environmental problems. However, working with the concept of cluster can help to shed light on policies to improve the local benefits of gem mining, by organizing the miners and their supporting organizations to allow investments that bring long term benefits locally.     

Multispecies and Multiscale Conservation Planning: Setting Quantitative Targets for Red‐Listed Lichens on Ancient Oaks

Abstract: Species occurrence in a habitat patch depends on local habitat and the amount of that habitat in the wider landscape. We used predictions from empirical landscape studies to set quantitative conservation criteria and targets in a multispecies and multiscale conservation planning effort. We used regression analyses to compare species richness and occurrence of five red‐listed lichens on 50 ancient oaks (Quercus robur; 120–140 cm in diameter) with the density of ancient oaks in circles of varying radius from each individual oak. Species richness and the occurrence of three of the five species were best explained by increasing density of oaks within 0.5 km; one species was best explained by the density of oaks within 2 km, and another was best predicted by the density of oaks within 5 km. The minimum numbers of ancient oaks required for “successful conservation” was defined as the number of oaks required to obtain a predicted local occurrence of 50% for all species included or a predicted local occurrence of 80% for all species included. These numbers of oaks were calculated for two relevant landscape scales (1 km² and 13 km²) that corresponded to various species responses, in such a way that calculations also accounted for local number of oaks. Ten and seven of the 50 ancient oaks surveyed were situated in landscapes that already fulfilled criteria for successful conservation when the 50% and 80% criteria, respectively, were used to define the level of successful conservation. For cost‐efficient conservation, oak stands in the landscapes most suitable for successful conservation should be prioritized for conservation and management (e.g., grazing and planting of new oaks) at the expense of oak stands situated elsewhere.     

环保型阻垢剂的研究进展

介绍了近年来循环冷却水系统中环保型阻垢剂的研究进展。重点阐述了价廉无污染的淀粉、单宁、木质素、纤维素、壳聚糖和腐植酸钠等天然高分子环保型阻垢剂,以及目前广泛应用的共聚物类的环保型阻垢剂和聚环氧琥珀酸、聚天冬氨酸、S-羧乙基硫代琥珀酸等新型环保型阻垢剂的阻垢性能和环境降解性能,并对这些阻垢剂的应用现状进行了阐述。而改性和复配是环保型阻垢剂的发展趋势。     

What people think about the environment and its relationship to their health: perceptions of health at different scales of environment in Hamilton,Ontario

This study examines lay perceptions of the environment and its perceived relation to health at three scales: the environment at large, the neighbourhood, and the home. Interviews were conducted with residents from two contrasting neighbourhoods in the industrial city of Hamilton, Canada. The results reveal variations in perceptions of the environment–health link between residents in the two study neighbourhoods as well as across the different scales. Air pollution and proximity to industry were frequently implicated in lay understandings of the general and neighbourhood environments. In contrast, the home environment was seen as relatively insulated and safe. Furthermore, personal control mechanisms (e.g. cleanliness) were believed to mitigate adverse health impacts in the home and yard while the general environment was seen to be outside of such control. The significance of the findings is discussed in terms of future research and policy relevance.     

A Framework to Develop Nationwide Flooding Extents Using Climate Models and Assess Forecast Potential for Flood Resilience

The methods used to simulate flood inundation extents can be significantly improved by high‐resolution spatial data captured over a large area. This paper presents a hydraulic analysis methodology and framework to estimate national‐level floodplain changes likely to be generated by climate change. The hydraulic analysis was performed using existing published Federal Emergency Management Agency 100‐year floodplains and estimated 100‐ and 10‐year return period peak flow discharges. The discharges were estimated using climate variables from global climate models for two future growth scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. River channel dimensions were developed based on existing regional United States Geological Survey publications relating bankfull discharges with channel characteristics. Mathematic relationships for channel bankfull topwidth, depth, and side slope to contributing drainage area measured at model cross sections were developed. The proposed framework can be utilized at a national level to identify critical areas for flood risk assessment. Existing hydraulic models at these “hot spots” could be repurposed for near–real‐time flood forecasting operations. Revitalizing these models for use in simulating flood scenarios in near–real time through the use of meteorological forecasts could provide useful information for first responders of flood emergencies.