The idea of sustainable development

In this lecture, I demonstrate how very different macroeconomic history begins to look if Nature is included as a capital asset in production activities. The tentative conclusions I draw from the evidence are: (1) high population growth in the world’s poorest regions (South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) has been an obstacle to the achievement of sustainable economic development there; relatedly, (2) when population growth is taken into account, the accumulation of manufactured capital, knowledge, and human capital (health and education) has not compensated for the degradation of natural capital in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and, in all probability, even in the UK and the US; (3) China is possibly an exception to (1) and (2). This article is based on the Keynote Lecture delivered at the international symposium on “Sustainability in an Unequal World”, held in Tokyo on November 24, 2006. The exposition relies on my book, Economics: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007. The author is the Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of St. John’s College, Cambridge.     

关于建立自然灾害评估系统的总体构思

本文对建立自然灾害评估系统的总体构思进行了初步的探讨,其中包括自然灾害评估指标系统;灾害评估的分类和程序;自然灾害评估的基础工作;自然灾害评估的主要手段;自然灾害评估系统的模式和灾害数据库的建立。     

Potentially recoverable resources: How recoverable?

There are a number of factors which are likely to limit the proportion of potentially recoverable resources that will actually be recovered. The most important of these concern the way minerals are distributed within the crust and trends in energy costs associated with mineral production. This article offers a pessimistic view of the prospects for mineral supplies early in the 21st century. The resource situation is even less hopeful when the possibility of extending the material living standards of the developed countries to everyone likely to be living on earth late next century is considered.     

The role of humic substances in chromium sorption onto natural organic matter (peat)

To elucidate mechanisms of Cr³⁺ sorption onto the unaltered solid natural organic matter, the comparative studies of this ion binding from a solution at pH 4.0 onto three selected particle size fractions: 2000–1000 μm, 630–200 μm and 63–20 μm of markedly different HS content and structure, separated by a wet sieving from an overall sample of peat (Brushwood Peat Humus) were carried out. Comparable patterns of COOH groups and CEC_t confirmed that for cation exchange capacity were responsible mainly cations connected with COO⁻ functional groups. It was though found that aliphatic acids in the solid state did not take part in Cr³⁺ binding, thus the finest studied fraction 63–20 μm of the highest contents of functional groups showed the lowest sorption capacity for Cr³⁺, while similar patterns of sorbed Cr³⁺, soluble HS content and base CEC₀ indicated that these parameters were directly interrelated. The base ion exchange processes determined by CEC₀ (with Ca²⁺ as a predominant exchangeable cation) appeared to be not the major mechanisms responsible for Cr³⁺ sorption. For this metal, strong binding to insoluble large molecular weight organic pool two- to threefold prevailed over the ion exchange processes. Very low acid desorption indicated generally low mobility of Cr³⁺-organic compounds.     

上、下悬窗开启角度对排烟效果影响的研究

自然排烟窗有多种开启方式,开启方式的不同影响烟气的流动,进而影响排烟效率。通过数值模拟方法,研究了自然排烟窗的开启方式对排烟效果的影响。主要研究了上悬窗和下悬窗在排烟上的表现。通过对上悬窗开口角度的研究,发现了上悬窗主要排烟区域为两侧,且排烟效率跟开启角度正弦值有关,并在此基础上提出了一种提高建筑中上悬窗排烟效率的方法。而下悬窗的模拟结果则表明,开启大于23°时,排烟效果基本不受影响。     

液化天然气储罐9％镍钢焊缝相控阵AUT工艺

9％镍钢液化天然气储罐制造安装过程中,焊缝检验通常用常规射线照相（RT）进行。本文研讨用相控阵半自动超声检测（AUT）取代射线照相的工艺制定及验证方法。要领分四步：首先带缺陷专用焊接试样的制备;然后相控阵AUT工艺的编制;其次在有已知缺陷的焊接试样上,对AUTT艺作“开放性”验证试验;最后在现场对整个数据采集系统作“封闭性”操作演示和验证评定试验。验证结果表明相控阵AUT取代RT可行可靠,能凸显AUT种种优势。     

天然气应用对兰州大气环境的影响

煤烟型污染是兰州市大气污染严重的主要原因之一，西气东输工程对改变兰州市能源结构，改善城市环境质量具有非常重要的意义。根据兰州市大气污染现状和特性，以2000年为基准，分析研究了兰州市利用天然气前后能源结构，主要污染源及大气污染物排放量的变化。针对污染源状况和兰州市天然气用气规划，选用适宜模式预测了兰州市利用天然气后的各主要污染物的年平均浓度，计算了空气质量的改善程度。     

Analysis of crater formation in buried NG pipelines: A survey based on past accidents and evaluation of domino effect

The formation of a crater by the abrupt and catastrophic rupture of a high-pressure pipeline can be highly relevant, especially when the crater uncovers other pipelines, which could undergo a domino effect with a significant increase of the consequences on people or on the environment. However, this scenario has been only partially studied in the literature. To assess the influence of the pipeline parameters on the dimensions of the resulting crater, a statistical analysis of accidental ruptures of buried natural gas pipelines that have involved the formation of a crater was carried out. Mathematical expressions are proposed to describe the proportionality relationships found, which can be very useful to support adequate separation distances in the design and construction of parallel corridors of pipelines after appropriate escalating effects are considered. Finally, detailed event trees were developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the final outcomes, as well as the identified domino sequences, based on a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data. The study of these accident scenarios, based on actual cases, represents a useful and needed advance in risk analysis of natural gas transportation through pipelines.     

Structural change and sustainable development

In this paper, we show that the commonly observed decline in primary (natural resource using) sector output and employment shares, often termed structural change, can be explained as an endogenous response to the presence of nature's constraint. Structural change takes place even if consumer preferences are homothetic, and technological progress does not discriminate against the primary sector. Under certain conditions, structural change allows an open economy to grow with natural resource sustainability. Sustained and environmentally sustainable economic growth is possible even if the natural resource is exploited under open access. Well-defined property rights are neither necessary, nor sufficient for sustainable growth. We show that there is no unique relationship between natural resource endowment and the rate of economic growth over the long run. Resource-rich economies may grow faster or slower than resource-poor ones.