CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: It has been well established that the greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century. Consequently, shifts in the earth's radiative balance are expected with accompanying alterations to the earth's climate. With these anticipated, and perhaps already observable, changes in both global and regional climate, managers of regional water resources seek insight to the possible impacts climate change may have on their present and future water supplies. The types and degrees of impacts that climate change may have on New York City's water supply system were assessed in a study of a watershed at Allaben, New York. Hypothetical scenarios of future climate and climate change projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used in conjunction with the WatBal hydrological model and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to ascertain how runoff and soil moisture from this watershed may change in a warmer climate. For the worst case predictions, the results indicate that within the century of the 2000s, the watershed's air temperature may increase up to about 11°F, while its precipitation and runoff may decrease by about 13 and 30 percent, respectively. If this watershed is typical of the others within the New York City water supply system, the system's managers should consider implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in preparation for the worst of these possible future conditions.     

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害的灰色拓扑预测

基于灰色系统理论中拓扑预测的理论方法 ,对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害造成的受损长度进行了分析预测 .在对受损长度时序分布特征分析的基础上 ,给定一组阈值 ξi,并按不同的时间序列分别建立 GM(1.1)模型而得到模型群 .然后应用新亚欧大陆桥新疆段 38年(1959～1997年)的受损长度统计资料 ,对所建模型群进行了检验 ,并用此模型群对未来可能出现一定阈值范围内受损长度的年份进行了预测 .经检验 ,该模型群的原点误差范围为 0.090～6.520 ,精度范围为 72.658～ 97.134.结果表明 ,所建模型群精确度高 ,科学性较强 ,具有比较好的实用性 .     

Sustainable coastal communities in the age of coastal storms: Reconceptualising coastal planning as ‘new’ naval architecture

Hurricanes devastated the Gulf coast of the USA in 2005. Hurricane Katrina, in particular, highlighted the compelling need to build more sustainable and hazard-resilient communities. Much can be learned from recovery efforts to rebuild the Gulf coast. Personal observations and interviews with planners, academics and others involved in recovery efforts inform this analysis, which focuses on New Orleans. A conceptual framework is developed and principles and operational imperatives outlined to guide action for building sustainable, hazard-resilient communities. Such communities will remain elusive unless ‘business as usual’ is confronted by a transformational process of developmental planning. Sustainable, hazard-resilient coastal communities are founded upon robust ‘critical infrastructure’ that is secured by planning and decision-making processes that enable coastal communities to build ‘layers of resilience’ to overcome ‘waves of adversity’. Planners need to take on a redefined role—as ‘new naval architects’—to design and build communities that are ‘sea-worthy’ in this age of coastal storms.

江苏省新农村建设评价指标体系初探——以大丰市南阳镇为例

党的十六届五中全会提出了新农村建设的任务,江苏省也于近期举办了新农村建设专题研讨会。本文通过对现存相关指标体系的回顾分析,结合新农村建设“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的内涵,对江苏省新农村建设指标体系进行了初步探讨,并采用这一体系对大丰市南阳镇新农村建设实现程度进行了评价。结果表明,虽然江苏省农村发展水平已有明显提高,但仍需要进一步加强农村工作,努力达到新农村建设的目标。     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式,选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标,以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标,综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地,利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正,采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取,构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2,占新区土地总面积的313%,主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域;新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎,大部分区域阻力值较低,间或分布高阻力值;新区生态廊道总长度18586 km,呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布,所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

酸沉降影响稻米品质的新发现

酸沉降影响了稻米质量和口感.酸雨时空分布从宏观上概括了稻米品质的地理分布.酸雨决定了酶活性相关金属离子的丰缺,继而影响淀粉合成关键酶的活性,最终影响淀粉合成质量.温度变化是表象,降雨pH值变化是条件,酶活性相关金属离子丰缺是根本,实质是酶活性相关金属离子或激活或抑制了支链淀粉合成关键酶的活性.提出了改善粮食作物质量的化控创新技术路线.     

雄安新区-白洋淀冬季冰封期水体溶解性有机物的空间分布、光谱特征及来源解析

运用三维荧光光谱(EEMs)技术结合平行因子分析法(PARAFAC)以及紫外-可见光谱技术(UV-vis),对雄安新区-白洋淀冬季冰封期不同特征区域水体溶解性有机物(DOM)的空间分布、光谱特征以及来源进行解析.结果表明,冬季冰封期白洋淀水体DOM吸收系数无特征峰,不同特征区域的差异显著;表层水体DOM与底层水体DOM的吸收系数差异不明显;冰封期白洋淀水体的E3/E4均大于3. 5,说明DOM以低腐殖质成分为主,E2/E3为6. 35±0. 72,表明DOM中小分子量的居多,而且SR为1. 33±0. 14均大于1,显示DOM主要为生物源;三维荧光通过PARAFAC解析出3种组分,分别为类酪氨酸(C1)、类色氨酸(C2)和陆源腐殖质(C3);对3个组分进行相关性分析,结果显示C1与C2之间具有显著的相关性(P <0. 001);白洋淀各个特征区域间的DOM总荧光强度和各荧光组分荧光强度呈现显著的差异(P <0. 01); DOM的总荧光强度以及各组分的荧光强度均呈现出唐河入淀口高、烧车淀低的特征,C1+C2是DOM的主要成分;冰封期白洋淀水体的DOM生物源指数(BIX)为1...     

Arsenic forensic modeling leads to decommission of downgradient/off-site monitoring wells

Arsenic was detected at concentrations exceeding the regulatory limit of 0.010 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in an off-site bedrock monitoring well downgradient of a former electroplating facility in Merrimack, New Hampshire. The bedrock underlying the site is associated with naturally occurring high concentrations of groundwater arsenic. Geochemical modeling was used to evaluate whether the arsenic in bedrock groundwater at the off-site monitoring location was site-related or naturally occurring. The hydrogeochemical signature of the off-site bedrock well did not resemble signatures of site-impacted bedrock wells. Multiple lines of evidence support that the arsenic observed in off-site bedrock groundwater was not a result of adverse impacts from site-related groundwater contamination.     

Flood policy reversal in australia

In 1977 the Government of New South Wales introduced a flood prone lands policy which attempted to break with the past emphasis on structural works. Cornerstones of the policy were the preparation of floodplain maps, and use of the 1:100 (100 year or 1%) flood to delineate floodplains and 1:20 flood for floodway definition. The fiscal and regulatory elements of the policy were to be applied more or less uniformly within the two zones. At first there was little effective opposition to the program, but this changed when large areas of Sydney, which had not been inundated since development, were mapped. Local government concern over issues of legal liability led to decisions which in turn prompted opposition to the policy from residents' action groups and property development interests. A perceived drop in property values provided the main motivation for action by residents. This pressure for change, which intensified just before the 1984 state election, saw the policy overturned.
The new policy gives local government greater responsibility for floodplain management. State authorities have withdrawn from floodplain mapping, although technical advice will continue to be provided, and there are no longer any uniform floodplain or floodway definitions. Policy implementation is to be guided by a Manual which attempts to define flood hazard in terms of both physical and social criteria.     

可降解垃圾生物消纳机运行试验

介绍了新研制的可降解垃圾生物消纳机的原理，并对运行试验数据进行了分析，说明该机运行良好，社会和环境效益有独特优势。