大气环境容量系数A值频率曲线拟合及其应用

在用A值法确定大气环境容量的方法研究中,给出了大气环境容量系数的理论定义、特性及其累积频率曲线的PIII型拟合,同时证明该系数亦可定义为空气自洁指数.以北京为例探讨了各重现期的大气环境容量系数在不同控制区面积、时段所对应的容量及其相应空气质量的关联.按1951~2014的气象数据计算的北京百年一遇的年均A值为4.47,而百日一遇的日均A值仅为0.23.研究结果表明大气环境容量系数的频率分析或可成为大气环境管理中的一个重要工具.     

基于重整化群理论的采空区煤柱群临界失稳概率研究

为对房柱式采空区煤柱群安全稳定性进行客观评价,以概率分析为手段结合重整化群理论,深入研究了煤柱个体与相邻煤柱之间的荷载传递规律及煤柱群-顶板系统临界稳定性。得出结论:重整化群理论可适用于采空区煤柱群稳定性分析,确定煤柱群临界概率范围为0.147≤p*≤0.333;煤柱失稳荷载传递过程中的损失程度可用荷载传递系数α衡量,临界破坏概率p*随着荷载传递系数α的增加而递减;针对不同工况,需通过试验或现场实测获得传递系数α,才能准确的确定煤柱临界概率p*。     

火灾后既有结构混凝土损伤评估的突变模型

为了充分考虑火灾后混凝土损伤的多种控制因素,简便而可靠的混凝土损伤综合评估方法,选取抗压强度、耐久性、爆裂和裂纹等4个损失系数为评价指标,采用突变理论的归一化公式和突变原则,构建火灾后混凝土损伤综合评估的突变模型,并予以工程实例分析。结果表明:该方法与模糊综合法、投影寻踪法、分形插值法、属性识别法、可拓物元法的评价结果具有较好的一致性,评价结果客观准确,是一种简单实用的火灾后混凝土损伤综合评估新方法。     

集对分析在区域大气环境风险评价中的应用研究

应用集对分析法对事故状态下有毒有害气体环境风险分布建立数学模型,通过南京化工园区的实例分析,把评价区域大气环境风险划分为5个等级,并对差异不确定系数i取值进行讨论,以反映不同状态下的大气环境风险分布水平.研究结果显示,i₁=0.5,i₂=-0.5取值方法简便,且此时的区域大气环境风险状态相对符合实际,可为优化土地利用规划和完善环境风险防控措施提供依据.     

黄淮海平原冬小麦种植的气候变化适应评估

水资源短缺影响黄淮海平原农业稳定和可持续发展。气候变化情景下,农业用水紧张的问题可能进一步加剧,种植制度和作物品种区域布局将面临调整。论文利用IPCC 5三种代表性温室气体浓度排放路径（RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）的多模式集成数据,基于VIP（soil-Vegetation-atmosphere Interface Processes）生态水文模型,模拟了2011—2059年黄淮海平原二级子流域的水资源盈亏变化。在此基础上,针对水分亏缺最严重的子流域,设计无外来调水和维持2000—2010年调水总量水平的两种流域地下水采补均衡情景,对冬小麦种植区域的合理布局及其对产量的影响进行评估。结果表明,2050年代黄淮海平原农作物蒸散量增幅大于降雨量增幅,北部地区水分亏缺量将增加,南部地区水分盈余量则减少。在低到高的排放情景下,全区域水分盈余量下降0.1%~14.1%。两种地下水采补均衡情景下,2050年代黄淮海平原冬小麦种植面积应分别减少9.8%~11.3%和7.0%~8.8%,相应产量分别增加0~11.9%和3.0%~15.9%。适当减少冬小麦种植面积,可有效减缓黄淮海地区农业水资源的不足,保护生态环境,促进农业可持续发展。     

Application of k-means clustering to environmental risk zoning of the chemical industrial area

The homogeneous risk characteristics within a sub-area and the heterogeneous from one sub-area to another are unclear using existing environmental risk zoning methods. This study presents a new zoning method by determining and categorizing the risk characteristics using the k-means clustering data mining technology. The study constructs indices and develops index quantification models for environmental risk zoning by analyzing the mechanism of environmental risk occurrence. We calculate the source risk index, air risk field index, water risk field index, and target vulnerability of the study area with Nanjing Chemical Industrial Park using a 100 m - 100 m mesh grid as the basic zoning unit, and then use k-means clustering to analyze the environmental risk in the area. We obtain the optimal clustering number with the largest average silhouette coefficient by calculating the average silhouette coefficients of clustering at different k-values. The clustering result with the optimal clustering number is then used for the environmental risk zoning, and the zoning result is mapped using the geographic information system. The study area is divided into five sub-areas. The common environmental risk characteristics within the same sub-area, as well as the differences between sub- areas, are presented. The zoning is helpful in risk management and is convenient for decision makers to distribute limited resources to different sub-areas in the design of risk reducing intervention.     

Relationships between octan‐1‐ol/water partition coefficients,aqueous activity coefficients and reversed phase HPLC capacity factors of alkylbenzenes,chlorobenzenes, chloronaphthalenes and chlorobiphenyls

Linear relationships between logarithms of octan‐1‐ol/water partition coefficients (K_d,oct), aqueous activity coefficients (y_aq) and extrapolated RP HPLC capacity factors (k‘_w) are found for four types of aromatic hydrocarbons (alkylbenzenes and poly‐chlorinated benzenes, ‐naphthalenes and ‐biphenyls).

Both log K,_d,oct and logk‘_w increase with the increasing number of chlorine or methyl‐ene substituents. These increases of log K,_d,oct and log k‘_w are proportional and almost independent of the parent compound. In addition, these increases are linear to increases of logy_aq. The slopes of logk‘_w‐logy_aq and log K,_d,oct‐logv_aq relationships deviate significantly from 1.0. This suggests that the activity coefficients of the test compounds in both octan‐1‐ol and in the stationary phase of the RP column increase after substitution of aromatic compounds with methylene or chlorine.     

The determination of partition coefficients of organic compounds in technical products and waste waters for the estimation of their bioaccumulation potential using reversed phase thin layer chromatography

Reversed phase thin layer chromatography (RPTLC) has been investigated for the estimation of octanol/water partition coefficients (P), an important parameter for the prediction of the environmental behaviour of organic chemicals. A strong correlation between P derived from the traditional octanol/water system and RPTLC has been established over five orders of magnitude. RPTLC data are likewise correlated to results obtained by high performance chromatography (HPLC). Due to the low costs, simplicity and separation power RPTLC is especially suited for the investigation and screening of mixtures of compounds before more complicated tests are involved.

Results from a round robin test on the determination of partition coefficients by HPLC, RPTLC and the batch method indicate the simplicity and accuracy of the RPTLC technique. Applications of the RPTLC‐technique on technical products and industrial waste waters are described.     

Cluster analysis of inorganic elements in particulate matter in the air environment of an equatorial urban coastal location

Concentrations of nine inorganic elements (Na, Zn, Ca, Fe, Ni, Mn, Cu, Cd and Al) in particulate matter (PM₁₀) in the air of an equatorial urban coastal location during 2009 were studied during summer and winter monsoon seasons using high-volume sampling techniques. Atomic absorption spectrophotometry was used to analyse the samples. The concentrations of most inorganic elements were higher during summer than winter, except for Cu and Zn. The main inorganic elements in PM₁₀ are Na, Zn and Ca. High concentrations of Na and Ca are due to marine aerosols. Analysis of enrichment factors showed that inorganic elements are from non-crustal sources. Cluster analysis identified five clusters in the summer and six in the winter: (1) PM₁₀–Ni, (2) Zn–Na, (3) Fe–Cu–Ca–Cd, (4) Mn and (5) Al for summer; and (1) PM₁₀, (2) Zn, (3) Fe–Ni, (4) Cu–Ca–Na–Cd, (5) Mn and (6) Al for winter. Combining both correlation and cluster analysis, it was found that Fe–Cu–Cd was from industry/vehicle emissions, Zn was from resuspended soil, Mn was from metallurgical processes, Ni was from a nearby power plant and Al was from crustal sources. Inorganic element concentrations could be a good indicator of local sources of PM₁₀.     

Rain forest dwellers' livelihoods: income generation,household wealth and NTFP sales,a case study from Xishuangbanna,SW China

Through annual in-depth household questionnaire interviews of 60% of households in Daka and Baka villages from 1998 to 2004, we explored wealth-related differences and similarities in the sale of NTFPs of tropical rain forest fringe dwellers in Xishuangbanna, SW China. Contribution of different NTFPs to cash income and different seasonal access to NTFPs between Baka and Daka were analysed. There were significant differences in income and role of NTFPs per household between Baka and Daka related to different access to: NTFPs in forests, labour and market sales in different seasons. In Baka, the ranking of NTFP income was: fungi, wild vegetables, bamboo shoot in 2000 and 2001. Differences in gender and generational involvement in NTFP sales was also examined. For example, households without a son, as well as those with a female householder depended more on income from NTFPs and less on income from rubber than other households. Resource use patterns between relatively wealthy and poor households were also analysed. Wealthy households sold 2.50 ± 0.50 types while poor households sold 2.08 ± 0.26 NTFPs. The Gini coefficient of gross income per household for Baka in recent years was 0.393, increasing to 0.414 without NTFPs. The Gini coefficient of gross income for Daka in recent years was 0.291, increasing to 0.292 without NTFPs, showing the different role of NTFPs in mitigating wealth inequality in the two villages.