玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务功能价值研究

土地利用/覆被变化是生态环境演变最重要的因素之一,其研究对于促进区域生态经济协调发展有重要意义。根据1976年和2006年玛纳斯河流域两期遥感影像资料,基于生态经济学的最新方法采用卫星遥感技术以及Costanza等的生态系统服务价值评价手段,对期间玛纳斯河流域生态服务系统服务功能价值变化进行分析研究。结果表明:①玛纳斯流域土地利用结构变化在30年间表现为草地、林地、不断减少,而耕地、水域、沙地和建设用地不断增加,反映出人类因素及生态环境恶化的趋势;②该流域生态系统服务功能价值总额由1976年123.831 08元减少至2006年101.521 08元。减幅:18.02%,年均减少0.741 08元,通过对玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务功能价值进行评价,为玛纳斯河流域生态开发和治理,以及环境整治提供决策依据。     

非稳定状态下除磷过程的特点研究

为了研究非稳定状态下生物除磷的特点,采用序批式间歇反应器(SBR),通过不同的进水方式(连续进水和瞬时进水),系统地考察了进水体积、NOX-N、限制曝气等因素对除磷过程的影响。结果表明,在温度为(23±0.5)℃、pH为7.0～8.0时,厌氧搅拌期连续进水的比释磷量(单位质量污泥(以MLSS计)的释磷量(以PO43-P计))比瞬时进水时高出42.11%。在运行条件相似的情况下,厌氧搅拌期的比释磷量与每周期进水体积无关。相对于连续进水,瞬时进水更有助于促进微生物利用有机底物进行自身的生长。限制曝气对连续进水和瞬时进水的释磷过程都存在明显的影响,在DO小于0.1mg/L的情况下,2者的比释磷量相对非限制曝气时分别降低了57.14%和55.56%。在连续进水时,NOX-N的反硝化结束伴随着释磷速率的突然升高。利用贮存作用并不能每次都成功地抑制丝状菌污泥膨胀。     

Respiratory health of road-side vendors in a large industrialized city

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The literature reports a high prevalence of respiratory symptoms associated with exposure to motor vehicle exhaust emissions and people exposed to vehicle emissions are at risk of reduced lung function and cardiovascular performance. Although the effect of traffic emissions is a known risk to respiratory health, retailers are often situated along major roads in a busy urban environment to maximise customers. Shop assistants in an air-conditioned environment should be less exposed to traffic fumes and their lung function should be better preserved compared to 'unprotected' vendors exposed directly to vehicle emissions. The lung function of these two groups of workers has not previously been compared. The aims of this study are to determine if there is a difference in the concentration of respirable particles of diameter less than 10 micrometers (PM10) inside and outside air-conditioned shops along a busy major road; and to compare the lung function parameters, blood lead levels and respiratory symptoms between road-side vendors directly 'exposed' to traffic fumes and vendors working in 'protected' air-conditioned shops along the same road. METHODS: Roadside vendors (n=33) and adjacent shop assistants (n=31) were recruited for the study in a district known to have high emissions and pollution measures. All subjects were asked to complete a questionnaire providing the frequency of their respiratory symptoms. Spirometry pulmonary function tests were conducted and exhaled carbon monoxide levels (ECO), oxygen saturation and blood lead levels (BLL) were measured. PM10 level was concurrently measured in the subject's working environment. Pulmonary function data and ECO levels collected from a cohort of university staff aged > or = 30 years (n=92) at a university campus were included for comparison. RESULTS: The concentration of particulate matter (PM10) at the roadside (210 +/- 70 microg/m3) was significantly higher than inside the shops (130 +/- 40 microg/m3). There was no difference in lung function parameters or BLL between the groups, however the forced vital capacity of both groups of vendors was significantly lower than a 'control' cohort of academic institution personnel (n=92). DISCUSSION: This study illustrated that while the level of pollution improved with air conditioning, this may not be sufficient to prevent respiratory consequences. Our data suggests that a reduction in occupational exposure is not enough to protect these workers. CONCLUSIONS: Air-conditioned work environment is insufficient to protect the respiratory system against the adverse effects of exposure to vehicle emissions. RECOMMENDATIONS: The overwhelming effect of exposure during travel to and from work and at home cannot be underestimated. More stringent guidelines to control pollution appear necessary to protect the respiratory health of both shop-keepers and road-side vendors and further studies to explore the effect on respiratory health of the exposure to pollutants associated with commuting to and from work are warranted.     

矿岩可崩性的可拓聚类预测研究

将可拓工程方法与聚类分析相结合,以矿岩的可崩性等级和影响因子构造经典域物元和节域物元,应用物元理论和可拓集合中的关联函数,建立了可拓聚类预测的简单物元模型.通过与RQD法,RMR法,MRMR法以及Q系统分级法的矿岩可崩性分级评价结果相比较,可拓聚类预测方法所获得的结果与其他评价方法的结果具有一致性,说明该方法的可行性.可拓聚类预测结果具有不仅反映事物从属级别的绝对性,而且还能反映其相对性的优点.     

人员疏散拥堵问题的博弈分析

从经济学的角度,应用博弈论中经典的"公共地悲剧"理论,分析疏散出口、安全通道等没有排他性所有权的稀缺性资源供给与需求之间的矛盾,提出了人员疏散过程中的博弈数学模型,揭示在理性的疏散人员追求自身收益最大化和没有有效约束与管制的前提条件下,疏散出口等公共资源会被过度使用的现象,即人员疏散过程中的"公共地悲剧"——人员拥堵,并在所提出的博弈模型基础上,从设计与管理的角度,给出一些解决拥堵问题的建议和对策。     

基于隶属函数的高速公路安全距离模型研究

为了改善高速公路防追尾安全距离模型,对模型中的驾驶员反应时间进行研究,分析不同车速时驾驶员反应时间对安全距离的影响。驾驶员反应时间受驾龄、应变能力、性别、心理生理状况、车速等多种因素的影响。基于模糊数学中隶属函数的有关理论,利用Matlab软件,在驾驶员反应时间大小允许的范围内,综合考虑各种主要因素,确定驾驶员反应时间。通过具体实例说明该方法的应用,结果证明,应用模糊数学,可以计算出不同的驾驶员,在不同的车速时的反应时间。     

Sensitivity of species-distribution models to error,bias, and model design: An application to resource selection functions for woodland caribou

Models that predict distribution are now widely used to understand the patterns and processes of plant and animal occurrence as well as to guide conservation and management of rare or threatened species. Application of these methods has led to corresponding studies evaluating the sensitivity of model performance to requisite data and other factors that may lead to imprecise or false inferences. We expand upon these works by providing a relative measure of the sensitivity of model parameters and prediction to common sources of error, bias, and variability. We used a one-at-a-time sample design and GPS location data for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to assess one common species-distribution model: a resource selection function. Our measures of sensitivity included change in coefficient values, prediction success, and the area of mapped habitats following the systematic introduction of geographic error and bias in occurrence data, thematic misclassification of resource maps, and variation in model design. Results suggested that error, bias and model variation have a large impact on the direct interpretation of coefficients. Prediction success and definition of important habitats were less responsive to the perturbations we introduced to the baseline model. Model coefficients, prediction success, and area of ranked habitats were most sensitive to positional error in species locations followed by sampling bias, misclassification of resources, and variation in model design. We recommend that researchers report, and practitioners consider, levels of error and bias introduced to predictive species-distribution models. Formal sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are the most effective means for evaluating and focusing improvements on input data and considering the range of values possible from imperfect models.     

江西省城市化进程中资源消耗特征及响应分析

选取能源消费总量、总用水量和城市建成区面积作为江西省资源消耗的指示性指标，在对其城市化进程中资源消耗特征分析的基础上，采用计量经济学的方法。对城市化作用的资源消耗响应情景进行了模拟。研究显示：①随着城市化进程的推进，江西省资源消耗特征表现并不一致。其人均能源消耗、人均建成区面积扩张有着与全国类似的逐步增长的态势，但其人均值都低于全国人均水平；而人均用水量则与全国一样呈现下降趋势，但江西省人均用水量一直都高于全国平均水平。②格兰杰因果分析发现，江西省城市化水平变化是人均能源消费增长和人均建成区面积扩张的格兰杰因果原因，人均建成区面积扩张也是城市化水平提高的格兰杰因果原因；而城市化水平变化与人均用水量下降互不为格兰杰因果原因。进一步的脉冲响应函数模拟表明：在江西省城市化进程中，城市化水平的提高对人均能源消费具有正的冲击效果；而人均建成区面积扩张对城市化具有先正后负的响应情景。