大同—阳高地震灾害评估及灾因分析

本文记述了大同—阳高地震震害情况,同时对造成灾害的原因进行了分析,认为此次地震震级不大而损失严重的主要原因除了与地震持点和发震构造有关之外,还与当地民舍抗震性能差、施工质量低有直接关系。     

从委托代理理论谈中国的环境影响评价制度

根据委托代理理论,分析了中国环境影响评价制度中存在的问题,立足于绿色招商的理念,理顺建设项目环评委托代理关系,明确了建设单位、环评单位、招商部门、环保部门等相互之间的关系和职责,以使中国的环境影响评价制度更适应新型工业化道路发展的要求。     

古夫河着生藻类优势种体积与水质因子的相关性研究

通过研究长江三峡库区古夫河着生藻类优势种体积的变化,探索影响其体积的主要水质因子,为河流水质评价提供依据.于2010年12月至2012年2月,对古夫河着生藻类和地表水采样11次,共鉴定着生藻类197种,检测水质指标10项.选取Mcnaughton优势度指数(Y)>0.02的着生藻类(共30种)作为优势种并计算体积;利用主成分分析(PCA)分析优势种藻类在不同月份的体积变化.结果显示,硅藻门对冷暖季的变化较为敏感.将水质因子与优势种藻类体积进行典范对应分析(CCA),结果显示水质因子与藻类体积相关性大小为:溶解氧>氨氮>叶绿素a>酸碱度>硝态氮>总磷>水温>总氮>总有机碳>化学需氧量.Monte Carlo显著性检验结果为溶解氧和氨氮对着生藻类体积的影响最大,其次为叶绿素a、酸碱度和硝态氮.硅藻门藻类体积的变化可以判断古夫河水体中溶解氧、氨氮、叶绿素a、酸碱度、硝态氮的含量与变化.     

基于DEA和Malmquist指数的煤矿安全投入效率评价

为了系统的评价煤矿安全投入效率,采用DEA（数据包络分析）方法,选取我国1991~2010年煤矿安全投入产出数据构建DEA模型,其中煤矿安全投入指标为采煤机械化程度、工程技术人员百分比、颁布煤矿安全法规数和行业标准,产出指标为煤矿百万吨死亡率。根据构建的DEA模型对每年的效率进行分析和评价,并提出建议。同时运用Malmquist指数（全要素生产力指数）对煤矿安全投入效率进行分解研究。研究结果表明,从静态上看,我国仅有1993年和2010年当年的煤矿安全投入和产出都达到了最优状态,并且随着煤矿安全投入逐年增加,煤矿安全投入技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率逐年提升。从动态上看,我国煤矿安全投入Malmquist指数的提高对技术的依赖很明显,无论是技术进步还是技术效率的提高都会相应的提高Malmquist指数。     

Continuous performance assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and maintenance systems by multivariate analysis in gas transmission units

In this study, an integrated “Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE)” and maintenance systems are presented. Multivariate analysis is used for continuous performance assessment and improvement of these systems. The two subjects of “Maintenance System” and “HSE” have been individually investigated several times in different studies. However, few studies have been done to integrate these two systems and provide an integrated system for their implementation. This study evaluates current maintenance and HSE systems of a Gas Transmission Unit by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Moreover, decision making units (DMUs) are examined and ranked. Employees are considered as DMUs. This is done through investigating and measuring their efficiencies and identifying the inefficient and less-efficient units. Since an increase in the number of inputs does not lead to an increase in the number of outputs with the same scale, an output-oriented DEA with a Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) is used. The Fuzzy DEA (FDEA) is also used in this research to decrease uncertainty existing in qualitative indicators and human error. Finally, suggestions are given to improve those DMUs. The managers and employees of the gas transmission unit constitute the statistical population of the study. To achieve the objectives of this study, standard questionnaires with respect to HSE and Maintenance system are completed by operators. The proposed approach would help policy makers and top managers of Gas Transmission Company to have a more comprehensive and thorough understanding the working conditions with respect to the maintenance and HSE features.     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

硝基化合物的高效液相色谱(HPLC)分析

硝基化合物是炸药废水的主要成分,大部分硝基化合物具有较高的毒性.本文对奥克托今、黑索今、1,3,5-三硝基苯、1,3-二硝基苯、硝基苯、2,4,6-三硝基甲苯、2-氨基-4,6-二硝基甲苯、2,4-二硝基甲苯共8种硝基化合物的紫外光谱和液相色谱分离条件进行了研究,其最佳检测波长分别为228 nm、227 nm、227 nm、237 nm、272 nm、230 nm、226 nm、244 nm.本文建立了8种硝基化合物的高效液相色谱测定方法,色谱条件为:色谱柱为ZORBAX SB-C18(3.0 mm×250 mm,5μm),检测器为紫外检测器,流动相为甲醇-水(50∶50),流速为0.5 mL.min-1.水中8种硝基化合物可以在13 min内得到较好的分离,检出限均≤0.8 ng,回收率大于95%.     

基于HFACS的空中相撞事故分析及建议

空中相撞事故往往是由诸多人为差错相互叠加、耦合和作用而导致的,要找出事故的真正诱因,防止类似事故再次发生,难度非常大。为了有效地分析和定位人为差错,以更好地服务于防相撞的管理与决策,提出一种基于人为因素分析分类系统（HFACS）的空中相撞事故分析方法,它按照从显性差错到隐性差错的思路来分析事故的诱因,最终找出组织因素对事故的影响。并利用HFACS对巴西卡欣布上空发生的一起空中相撞事故进行了系统分析。案例分析结果表明,该方法不仅能够找出导致空中相撞事故的人为差错,解释事故发生的原因和过程,而且能够据此提供防止相撞事故发生的安全建议。     

Assessment of heavy metal pollution and health risks in a main river in Huayuan County,Xiangxi, Hunan Province北大核心CSCD

To study heavy metal pollution and assess the health risk of river water in Huayuan County, Xiangxi, Hunan Province, 11 water samples were collected from the Huayuan River and Brother Rivers in August and December 2016. Heavy metal (Pb, Zn, Cr, Cu, Fe, and Ni) concentrations were determined from the samples. The health risk assessment model recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) was applied to assess the health risk of heavy metals in the main surface waters of Huayuan County. The results indicated that the concentrations of heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cr, Cu, Fe, and Ni) of surface water in the research area were 2.57 × 10-3, 4.66 × 10-4, 1.65 × 10-3, 6.27 × 10-4, 0.19, and 8.50 × 10-4 mg/L, respectively. The health risk of surface waters with heavy metals was high. Therefore, the chemical carcinogenic substance (Cr) health risk index was five or six times higher than that of chemical non-carcinogens (Pb, Zn, Cu, and Ni). The average health risk indices of non-carcinogenic substances were in the order Pb > Cu > Zn > Ni. The correlation and principal component analysis of surface water showed that the six heavy metal elements were composed of three main components in the main surface waters of the county. The first principal component was comprised of Fe and Ni (33.28%), which was mainly from internal pollution. The second component was comprised of Cu and Cr (26.98%), which was primarily due to industrial waste water, rainwater leaching mineral waste produced by heavy metal mining, and smelting enterprises. The third component, resulting from geochemical pollution, was Zn (17.10%). The health risk indices triggered by heavy metal in surface waters was high. Heavy metal pollutants in the research area need to be controlled in the order Cr, Pb, Cu, Zn and Ni. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Inverse uncertainty characteristics of pollution source identification for river chemical spill incidents by stochastic analysis

Identifying source information after river chemical spill occurrences is critical for emergency responses. However, the inverse uncertainty characteristics of this kind of pollution source inversion problem have not yet been clearly elucidated. To fill this gap, stochastic analysis approaches, including a regional sensitivity analysis method, identifiability plot and perturbation methods, were employed to conduct an empirical investigation on generic inverse uncertainty characteristics under a well-accepted uncertainty analysis framework. Case studies based on field tracer experiments and synthetic numerical tracer experiments revealed several new rules. For example, the release load can be most easily inverted, and the source location is responsible for the largest uncertainty among the source parameters. The diffusion and convection processes are more sensitive than the dilution and pollutant attenuation processes to the optimization of objective functions in terms of structural uncertainty. The differences among the different objective functions are smaller for instantaneous release than for continuous release cases. Small monitoring errors affect the inversion results only slightly, which can be ignored in practice. Interestingly, the estimated values of the release location and time negatively deviate from the real values, and the extent is positively correlated with the relative size of the mixing zone to the objective river reach. These new findings improve decision making in emergency responses to sudden water pollution and guide the monitoring network design.

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