Concerns and future preparedness plans of a vulnerable population in New Jersey following Hurricane Sandy

Knowing how people prepare for disasters is essential to developing resiliency strategies. This study examined recalled concerns, evacuation experiences, and the future preparedness plans of a vulnerable population in New Jersey, United States, following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Understanding the responses of minority communities is key to protecting them during forthcoming disasters. Overall, 35 per cent of respondents were not going to prepare for an event. Intended future preparedness actions were unrelated to respondents' ratings of personal impact. More Blacks and Hispanics planned on preparing than Whites (68 versus 55 per cent), and more Hispanics planned on evacuating than did others who were interviewed. A higher percentage of respondents who had trouble getting to health centres were going to prepare than others. Respondents' concerns were connected to safety and survival, protecting family and friends, and having enough food and medicine, whereas future actions included evacuating earlier and buying sufficient supplies to shelter in place.     

Conceptual framework for evaluation of ecotourism carrying capacity for sustainable development of Karkheh protected area,Iran

The maintenance of natural and virgin ecosystems against an unnecessary influx of humans requires a modern and efficient model such as the carrying capacity model to optimize the management and development of ecotourism in these areas. The model is one of the key tools for conservation and sustainability of these areas. The present research attempts to formulate a framework for the ecotourism carrying capacity model for sustainable development of Karkheh protected area in Iran. The information was collected using a citation method as well as, interviews with experts, and visitors, and director of the region with 24 key indicators being regulated by field surveys and library studies. In this study, the network analysis process model, the Pressure-State-Response conceptual model, and Arc GIS_10.5 software were used to determine the potential for the establishment of ecotourism performance in the scale of 1: 50,000. In this research, 70 questionnaires were completed by experts in the field of environment and ecotourism to determine the relative importance of effective pressures. According to the results, the highest values belonged to physical carrying capacity (13,425,681 persons per day), ecological carrying capacity (2,482,226 persons per day), and social and culture (985,706 people per day), respectively. Based on the regional carrying capacity, the physical, ecological, and social carrying capacity index was calculated as 3356, 621, and 246 (greater than one), respectively. According to the results, the region has a high carrying capacity, which can accept visitors.     

Dynamics in the global protected-area estate since 2004

Nations of the world have committed to a number of goals and targets to address global environmental challenges. Protected areas have for centuries been a key strategy in conservation and play a major role in addressing current challenges. The most important tool used to track progress on protected-area commitments is the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Periodic assessments of the world's protected-area estate show steady growth over the last 2 decades. However, the current method, which uses the latest version of the WDPA, does not show the true dynamic nature of protected areas over time and does not provide information on sites removed from the WDPA. In reality, this method can only show growth or remain stable. We used GIS tools in an approach to assess protected-area change over time based on 12 temporally distinct versions of the WDPA that quantify area added and removed from the WDPA annually from 2004 to 2016. Both the narrative of continual growth of protected area and the counter-narrative of protected area removal were overly simplistic. The former because growth was almost entirely in the marine realm and the latter because some areas removed were reprotected in later years. On average 2.5 million km² was added to the WDPA annually and 1.1 million km² was removed. Reasons for the inclusion and removal of protected areas in the WDPA database were in part due to data-quality issues but also to on-the-ground changes. To meet the 17% protected-area component of Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 by 2020, which stood at 14.7% in 2016, either the rate of protected-area removal must decrease or the rate of protected-area designation and addition to the WDPA must increase.     

Quantifying biases in marine-protected-area placement relative to abatable threats

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a critical defense against biodiversity loss in the world's oceans, but to realize near-term conservation benefits, they must be established where major threats to biodiversity occur and can be mitigated. We quantified the degree to which MPA establishment has targeted stoppable threats (i.e., threats that can be abated through effectively managed MPAs alone) by combining spatially explicit marine biodiversity threat data in 2008 and 2013 and information on the location and potential of MPAs to halt threats. We calculated an impact metric to determine whether countries are protecting proportionally more high- or low-threat ecoregions and compared observed values with random protected-area allocation. We found that protection covered <2% of ecoregions in national waters with high levels of abatable threat in 2013, which is ∼59% less protection in high-threat areas than if MPAs had been placed randomly. Relatively low-threat ecoregions had 6.3 times more strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature categories I–II) than high-threat ecoregions. Thirty-one ecoregions had high levels of stoppable threat but very low protection, which presents opportunities for MPAs to yield more significant near-term conservation benefits. The extent of the global MPA estate has increased, but the establishment of MPAs where they can reduce threats that are driving biodiversity loss is now urgently needed.     

Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) set an ambitious target to achieve a conservation assessment for all known plant species by 2020. We consolidated digitally available plant conservation assessments and reconciled their scientific names and assessment status to predefined standards to provide a quantitative measure of progress toward this target. The 241,919 plant conservation assessments generated represent 111,824 accepted land plant species (vascular plants and bryophytes, not algae). At least 73,081 and up to 90,321 species have been assessed at the global scale, representing 21–26% of known plant species. Of these plant species, at least 27,148 and up to 32,542 are threatened. Eighty plant families, including some of the largest, such as Asteraceae, Orchidaceae, and Rubiaceae, are underassessed and should be the focus of assessment effort if the GSPC target is to be met by 2020. Our data set is accessible online (ThreatSearch) and is a baseline that can be used to directly support other GSPC targets and plant conservation action. Although around one‐quarter of a million plant assessments have been compiled, the majority of plants are still unassessed. The challenge now is to build on this progress and redouble efforts to document conservation status of unassessed plants to better inform conservation decisions and conserve the most threatened species.     

基于SPA-VFRM的城市要害系统综合应急能力研究

为反映城市要害系统综合应急能力的发展现状及过程,在分析城市要害设施系统构成与面临的主要灾害类型基础上,提出从充分性、精确性、抵御性和及时性4个维度评价应急能力的思路,建立城市要害系统综合应急能力评估指标体系,并应用层次分析法与变异系数法确定指标综合权重,结合集对分析（SPA）与可变模糊识别模型（VFRM）构建城市要害系统综合应急能力的评价模型;运用该模型实证分析某市要害系统综合应急能力发展现状。实证表明:该市要害系统综合应急能力呈现“波浪式升高”的动态发展趋势,灾害抵御能力是构成综合应急能力的主要方面;3种方法的评价结果排序基本一致,表明该模型的评估结果稳健、可靠,能够有效反映城市要害系统综合应急能力发展情况。     

基于GPR-TOPSIS方法的充填配比多目标多属性优化

为获得某金矿尾砂胶结充填材料最优配比,基于试验结果,以海水比例、灰砂比和料浆质量浓度为输入参数,以充填体强度、塌落度及泌水率为输出参数,建立了充填配比与其响应量的高斯过程回归模型,分析了不同因素对充填性能的影响程度;采用遗传算法对高斯过程回归模型进行多目标参数优化,获得了Pareto非劣解,在此基础上,引入多属性决策的TOPSIS法对Pareto非劣解进行方案优选,确定了充填最优配比。研究结果表明:高斯过程回归模型相对误差值均小于6%,可靠性高;灰砂比及料浆质量浓度对充填性能影响较为显著,采用海水作为充填水源将降低充填体的强度;经优化后的充填配比与试验结果相符。     

Disentangling horizontal pay dispersion: Experimental evidence

Although horizontal pay dispersion has been explored extensively using cross‐sectional field methods, it has received little attention using the control available through experimental designs. Many of the questions relevant to pay dispersion research can be addressed by taking an individual‐level experimental approach because this allows for clean separation of pay policies and individual effects. In this paper, we hypothesize both the motivation‐based and affect‐based effects of pay dispersion policies and test our hypotheses with a sample of over 400 participants in a real‐pay, real‐effort experiment. Results of the experiment provide support that two pay dispersion‐related pay policies, performance‐based pay dispersion and allocation criteria, have unique effects. Whereas motivation and performance effects are direct, pay satisfaction and interest in continuing work effects are the result of interactions, incorporating the performance level of workers. In follow‐up analyses, we find evidence that the temporal nature of responses to pay dispersion should be incorporated into future studies of pay dispersion.     

生态旅游区不同距离带上植物群落的结构对比

通过对芦芽山自然保护区植物群落的结构分析 ,揭示旅游活动和群落演替的内在机理 ,为景区植被保护和旅游管理提供依据 .结果表明 :不同地段上各植被层由于各种因素的影响而有所不同 ,大部分景区的植被生长良好 .不同距离带上各植被层大致表现出近距离 <中距离 <远距离的格局规律 ,但其明显度不尽一致 ,说明各植被层反映旅游活动对群落结构作用程度的能力大小依次为乔木层 <灌木层 <苔藓层 <草本层 .5个旅游影响因子的变化趋势 ,反映了旅游活动对群落生态环境的结构作用的规律 .距游径的水平距离愈远 ,垃圾量愈少 ,林下死枝下高愈高 ,枯层愈厚 ,树桩量愈多 ,幼苗量也愈多 .不同距离带上的变化规律客观地描绘了旅游活动的规律性变化 ,近距离处旅游活动强度最大 ,中距离处次之 ,远距离处则最小 .图 1表 1参 8     

元宝山中山土壤形成特点及系统分类

通过对元宝山的实地考察,选取具有代表性的6个山地土壤剖面进行描述及分析,研究了元宝山土壤的形成条件和特点,并按照《中国土壤系统分类:理论·方法·实践》一书要求,根据诊断层及诊断特性,检索了土壤系统分类名称。得出元宝山土壤垂直分布按海拔由低到高依次为:粘化富铝湿润富铁土-强度铝质湿润淋溶土-黄色铝质湿润淋溶土-普通铝质常湿雏形土-石质铝质常湿雏形土。