江西九连山阔叶林雪灾后主要树种残存量的恢复时间

2008年初的南方冰雪灾害对江西九连山自然保护区常绿阔叶林生态系统造成了巨大损失.对受灾4 hm2样地中的1 5901株林木(DBH≥1 cm)进行了统计分析,其中对枫香、马尾松、米槠、木荷、拟赤杨、丝栗栲这6个代表树种进行了残存率恢复研究.结果显示:6种植物残存率为木荷>拟赤杨>米槠>枫香>马尾松>丝栗栲;恢复时间为枫香>丝栗栲>马尾松>木荷>米槠和拟赤杨.恢复时间最长的为枫香(33年),最短的为米槠和拟赤杨(15年左右),种群恢复到受灾前.同时对残存率和恢复时间的关系进行了Logistic非线性曲线模拟.样地中植物种群残存率恢复时间由受灾状况和物种生长速度决定,采用Logistic模型拟合的相关度非常显著.     

沙尘天气过程对北京空气质量的影响

利用气象、沙尘暴特种观测以及环境监测等多种资料,对2010年3月19─22日沙尘天气过程的大气结构、沙尘源地和垂直水平输送条件以及北京近地层气象要素、空气质量的变化特征进行了分析. 结果表明:这次强沙尘暴天气过程是由冷空气短波槽快速东移南下、地面冷锋明显发展东移造成的;前期沙尘源地土壤湿度的减小为起沙提供了有利条件,同时低层存在的较强西北气流将从源地卷起的沙尘输送到下游地区;沙尘发生时,20 m气层内风速迅速增大,气层内垂直方向风速梯度也逐渐增大,相对湿度急剧降至20%～30%之间;受这次沙尘天气影响,北京地区ρ(TSP)以及10个区县的ρ(PM10)均迅速增加,空气质量达到重污染.      

Sudden high concentration of TSP affected by atmospheric boundary layer in Seoul metropolitan area during duststorm period

Hourly concentrations of TSP, PM(10), PM(2.5) near the surface at Seoul city were examined from March 20 to March 25, 2001 (duststorm event) in order to investigate the effect of a duststorm generated in China on the local aerosol concentration in Korea, The ratios of fine to coarse particles such as TSP to PM(10), TSP to PM(2.5) and PM(10)-PM(2.5) to PM(2.5) showed that a great amount of dust transported from the origin of the duststorm was remarkable with a maximum ratio of 9.77 between TSP and PM(2.5). Back trajectories every 6 h showed the movement of dust particles in the lower atmosphere near 500 m to 1500 m (atmospheric boundary layer), which implied transport from Baotou in inner Mongolia of northern China to the direction of Seoul city in Korea and then the back trajectories passed near the southern border of Mongolia and Baotou through Zengzhou in the midlevels (3000 m) and low levels (500 m) of China, finally reaching Seoul city. So, the TSP concentration at Seoul city was partially influenced by the duststorm, under the prevailing westerly wind and the transported aerosols could influence high concentrations of pollutants of TSP, PM(10) and PM(2.5) in Seoul. The sudden high concentrations of TSP and PM(10) were found for a few hours, especially at 1500 to 1800 LST, March 22. At 1200 LST, before the passage of a cold front through the Korean peninsula, the convective boundary layer (CBL) near Seoul was not shallow, but at 1500 LST, under the frontal passage, the CBL was remarkably thinner (less than 300 m), due to the compression of the boundary layer by the intrusion of cold air. This resulted in the increase of the TSP concentration, even though the mixed layer above maintained almost the same depth. At 1800 LST shortly after the frontal passage, that is, near sunset, the nocturnal cooling of the ground caused air parcels to cool, thereby enhancing the shallower nocturnal surface inversion layer and producing the maximum concentration of TSP of 1388 microg/m(3) near Seoul city.     

磁暴对沿海核电站变压器安全影响的研究

磁暴产生的地磁感应电流(GIC)直接损伤变压器和间接干扰继电保护等设备,强磁暴可能威胁到电网的安全运行。为探明磁暴对沿海核电站变压器的影响,对第23太阳周峰年强磁暴侵害广东岭澳核电站、江苏上河变电站的GIC测量数据,以及西北陕甘青宁750 kV电网计算数据进行统计分析,研究沿海核电站与内陆变电站变压器GIC大小及其差异原因。结果表明,由于受海岸效应现象的影响,沿海核电站的变压器更容易遭受磁暴的侵害。在此基础上,对极端磁暴的可能危害、灾害风险以及沿海核电站的磁暴灾害进行评估,并建议核电站选址和变压器选型时应评估磁暴的影响。     

中国东部沿海省市风暴潮经济损失风险区划

风暴潮是我国沿海省市面临的重大自然灾害之一,给这些地区造成了难以估量的损失。选取1989-2008年沿海11省、市、自治区风暴潮的历史数据作为研究样本,运用因子得分基础上的聚类分析和熵值评价等方法,对这些地区风暴潮灾害经济损失的风险进行了评估,最终按风暴潮灾害的经济损失程度将沿海省市划分为3个区域:即上海为第1区,表示风暴潮经济损失风险最小;海南、福建、浙江、广东4省为第3区,风险最大;其他省、市、自治区为第2区,表示经济损失风险居中。3个区域的灾害区划,为我们从更深层次上认识风暴潮的发生及是造成的损失情况提供了新的视角。     

风暴潮风险研究进展

中国沿海是全球少数几个风暴潮风险最大的区域之一。受全球气候变暖和海平面上升的影响,沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险水平呈显著上升的趋势。从灾害风险理论出发,在对风暴潮风险的认识、风暴潮危险性评估、风暴潮易损性评估,以及风暴潮综合风险评估等四个方面,系统地总结了目前风暴潮风险研究的最新成果、研究进展和存在的主要问题。总体来看,现阶段风暴潮风险评估研究还比较薄弱,未来的风暴潮风险研究应该由单要素评估走向综合评估,加强风暴潮风险评估的综合性和系统性。随着沿海地区社会经济的发展,应充分考虑全球变化和海平面上升对未来风暴潮风险的影响,完善风暴潮综合风险评估体系,提升风暴潮预报预警能力,为风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。     

福建暴雨洪灾时空变化与区域划分的初步研究

根据福建省暴雨洪涝灾害数据库资料，重建了1971—2005年福建暴雨洪灾的时空格局，在此基础上，基于自然灾害系统理论，以县域为单元，根据综合性与主导因素相结合的原则，采用自下而上的方法对福建暴雨洪灾进行了区域划分。结果表明：福建洪涝灾害的年际变化呈波动上升趋势，与暴雨次数的年际变化并不一致；年内非台风暴雨洪涝灾害有71．2％集中在4—6月份，台风暴雨洪涝灾害有81.3％集中在7—9月份，群发性强；空间上东西分异明显，东部以台风暴雨洪灾为主，区内根据危险性差异划分为4个二级区；西部以非台风暴雨洪灾为主，区内依据危险性差异划分为3个二级区。分阶段研究表明，洪涝灾害的分布范围由沿海向内陆扩展，并与暴雨频次和持续时间呈不同步增长，反映了福建的洪涝灾害是主要致灾因子暴雨和承灾体共同作用的结果，承灾体的脆弱性加大了洪涝灾害灾情，福建暴雨洪涝灾害的时空格局和区域划分可为防灾减灾规划提供科学参考。     

中国沙尘暴的下降趋势与气候变迁的对比

通过对观测数据的分析,描述了中国沙尘暴1961～2000年的年变化,以及1961～1980年和1991～2000年中国沙尘暴发生频次的空间分布,并对比了用“气候因子”描述的1951～1980年和1991～2000年中国北方气候.结果发现气候因子分布与沙尘暴的发生频次分布对应性很好,提出气候变迁导致在这40年中国沙尘暴整体上呈现出下降趋势.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS‐BASED FLOOD INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR FLOODPLAIN MODELING AND DAMAGE CALCULATION1

ABSTRACT: This work presents a flexible system called GIS‐based Flood Information System (GFIS) for floodplain modeling, flood damages calculation, and flood information support. It includes two major components, namely floodplain modeling and custom designed modules. Model parameters and input data are gathered, reviewed, and compiled using custom designed modules. Through these modules, it is possible for GFIS to control the process of flood‐plain modeling, presentation of simulation results, and calculation of flood damages. Empirical stage‐damage curves are used to calculate the flood damages. These curves were generated from stage‐damage surveys of anthropogenic structures, crops, etc., in the coastal region of a frequently flooded area in Chia‐I County, Taiwan. The average annual flood damages are calculated with exceedance probability and flood damages for the designed rainfalls of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year recurrence intervals with a duration of 24 hours. The average annual flood depth in this study area can also be calculated using the same method. The primary advantages of GFIS are its ability to accurately predict the locations of flood area, depth, and duration; calculate flood damages in the floodplain; and compare the reduction of flood damages for flood mitigation plans.     

我国沙尘暴的气候成因及未来发展趋势

利用EOF和环流合成统计方法,分析了我国北方近40年来沙尘暴日数变化的时空异常特征及其气候成因.结果表明,20世纪80年代以来的太阳活动加强,全球气候变暖,青藏高原地面加热场强度加强,欧亚西风急流轴北移,西太平洋副热带高压偏北偏西,强度加强,蒙古气旋减弱,西北西部的沙尘源区降水增加,是中国北方沙尘暴减少的主要原因.20世纪末到21世纪初太阳活动进入新一轮的减弱期,引起气候变暖趋势减弱,气温逐渐降低,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱,蒙古气旋逐渐加强.预计未来中国北方沙尘暴将在波动中逐渐增加,进入新一轮的相对活跃期.