单一重现期非线性暴雨强度模型参数的确定--新型混合加速遗传算法的构建与应用

对浮点编码遗传算法进行了改进,并嵌入Powell方向加速局部搜索算法与加速循环操作,从而构建了新型混合加速遗传算法.确定单一重现期的非线性暴雨强度模型参数的应用实例表明,该方法兼顾了改进浮点编码遗传算法和Powell算法的优点,是一种既可以较大概率、快速地搜索全局近似最优解,又能进行局部细微搜索的出色的非线性优化方法.该法在其它工程问题的非线性模型参数的确定中也具有广阔的应用前景.     

Anthropogenic Calcium Particles Observed in Beijing and Qingdao, China

Analysis of individual particles collected at Beijing in northern China revealed that particles abundant in calcium (Ca) always constituted a large fraction of mineral particles in the urban atmosphere. The particles were characterized by cubic morphologies. The major mineral element in the particles was Ca and few or no other mineral elements were detected. A large number of the particles were in the range of diameter <1 μm, where common natural mineral particles were rarely detected. The contribution of the Ca particles to the volume of total mineral particles greatly exceeded that of other mineral particles during non-dust-storm periods and was comparable to that during dust-storm periods. Reagent film tests showed that particulate sulfate and nitrate formation on the Ca particles was similar to that on common mineral particles. These results indicate that a large portion of Ca in the atmospheric particulate matter in Beijing was from anthropogenic sources rather than from natural sources, and the anthropogenic Ca particles acted as a significant medium for the formation of sulfate and nitrate. Similar particles were also detected at Qingdao, a coastal city in northern China. Data of a dust storm event showed that Ca-abundant particles from East China arrived there and moved out of the continent, similarly to Asian dust storm particles, suggesting possible contributions of anthropogenic Ca even in Asian dust storm samples in the downstream areas. Therefore, Ca may not be a good indicator of Asian dust from natural sources. However, the Ca particles, due to their unique shapes and elemental compositions, may provide an indicator for the atmospheric dispersion of anthropogenic particulate matters in East Asia.     

Climatic and Environmental Changes in the Source Areas of Dust Storms in Xinjiang, China, during the Last 50 Years

The desert environmental changes in the source areas of dust storms occurring in Xinjiang are discussed based on the climate changes and the impacts of human activities in Xinjiang during the past 50 years. The results show that the climate in Xinjiang is changing from a warm-dry type to a warm-wet one. The warm-wet climate has been obvious since the mid-1970's, and especially the sensitivity of the regional climate change in this arid area is obviously revealed by many factors, such as the characteristics of the local climate change in south Xinjiang and north Xinjiang, the difference of climate change in the alpine zones and the basins, and the change of areas of the waters bodies. Furthermore, these factors also reveal the difference in the regional climate change between Xinjiang and central and eastern areas of China. The occurrence and development of dust storms are directly affected by the precipitation, air humidity, status of underlying surface, etc. in the arid areas. The frequency and intensity of dust storms are closely related to the natural conditions, changes of climate and desert environment, as well as the dynamic conditions (i.e., weather systems) in the source areas of dust storms. Therefore, global warming is one of the main causes resulting in the degradation of the ecological environment and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, especially the disasters of sand drift and dust storms in the arid areas since the late-1980's, which reveals that the inland arid areas are sensitive regions to climate changes.     

Duststorms and Mesoscale Cloud Systems over The East Asian Deserts in Spring

Meteorological characteristics and morphology of duststorms and other dust weather phenomena in the arid regions of East Asia were described in order to investigate a possible role of mesoscale cloud disturbances that develop in synoptic-scale mid-latitude cyclones in intensifying dust weather. This study is a statistical examination of conventional surface observational data as well as satellite data obtained during April 2000–2003. In the deserts of Mongolia and northern China (e.g., the Gobi Desert) duststorms and other weaker dust weather (i.e., dust whirls, blowing dust) frequently occur under a strong influence of synoptic-scale cyclones; on the other hand in the Taklamakan Desert (northwestern China), dust weather phenomena occur in a less organized fashion and may be driven mainly by local meteorological and geographical effects. A significant signal was identified, revealing of the intensification of dust weather by the presence of convective cloud disturbances. Meteorological changes such as pressure rise and temperature drop, typically found during the passage of cold fronts, were frequently observed in the cases of duststorms occurring in the analysis region. However, no definite tendency was found for moisture change and wind speed in relation to cloud activity, probably because rainfall amount is generally too low to moisten the boundary-layer air.     

DUAL URBAN AND RURAL HYDROGRAPH SIGNALS IN THREE SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Many studies can be found in the literature pertaining to the effects of urbanization on surface runoff in small watersheds and the hydrologic response of undeveloped watersheds. However, an extensive literature review yielded few published studies that illustrate differing hydrologic responses from multiple source areas within a watershed. The concepts discussed here are not new, but the methods used provide a unique, basic procedure for investigating stormwater hydrology in topographically diverse basins. Six storm hydrographs from three small central Pennsylvania watersheds were analyzed for this paper; five are presented. Two important conclusions are deduced from this investigation. First, in all cases we found two distinct peaks in stream discharge, each representing different contributing areas to direct discharge with greatly differing curve numbers and lags representative of urban and rural source regions. Second, the direct discharge represents only a small fraction of the total drainage area with the urban peak becoming increasingly important with respect to the rural peak with the amount of urbanization and as the magnitude of the rain event decreases.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC BENEFITS OF INFILTRATION BASED URBAN STORM WATER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: As watersheds are urbanized, their surfaces are made less pervious and more channelized, which reduces infiltration and speeds up the removal of excess runoff. Traditional storm water management seeks to remove runoff as quickly as possible, gathering excess runoff in detention basins for peak reduction where necessary. In contrast, more recently developed “low impact” alternatives manage rainfall where it falls, through a combination of enhancing infiltration properties of pervious areas and rerouting impervious runoff across pervious areas to allow an opportunity for infiltration. In this paper, we investigate the potential for reducing the hydrologic impacts of urbanization by using infiltration based, low impact storm water management. We describe a group of preliminary experiments using relatively simple engineering tools to compare three basic scenarios of development: an undeveloped landscape; a fully developed landscape using traditional, high impact storm water management; and a fully developed landscape using infiltration based, low impact design. Based on these experiments, it appears that by manipulating the layout of urbanized landscapes, it is possible to reduce impacts on hydrology relative to traditional, fully connected storm water systems. However, the amount of reduction in impact is sensitive to both rainfall event size and soil texture, with greatest reductions being possible for small, relatively frequent rainfall events and more pervious soil textures. Thus, low impact techniques appear to provide a valuable tool for reducing runoff for the events that see the greatest relative increases from urbanization: those generated by the small, relatively frequent rainfall events that are small enough to produce little or no runoff from pervious surfaces, but produce runoff from impervious areas. However, it is clear that there still needs to be measures in place for flood management for larger, more intense, and relatively rarer storm events, which are capable of producing significant runoff even for undeveloped basins.     

MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING COPPER RUNOFF IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed for managing copper runoff in urban watersheds that incorporates water quality characterization, watershed land use areas, hydrologic data, a statistical simulator, a biotic ligand binding model to characterize acute toxicity, and a statistical method for setting a watershed specific copper loading. The modeling framework is driven by export coefficients derived from water quality parameters and hydrologic inputs measured in an urban watershed's storm water system. This framework was applied to a watershed containing a copper roof built in 1992. A series of simulations was run to predict the change in receiving stream water chemistry caused by roof aging and to determine the maximum copper loading (at the 99 percent confidence level) a watershed could accept without causing acute toxicity in the receiving stream. Forecasting the amount of copper flux responsible for exceeding the assimilation capacity of a watershed can be directly related to maximum copper loadings responsible for causing toxicity in the receiving streams. The framework developed in this study can be used to evaluate copper utilization in urban watersheds.     

沿海防潮堤坝对风暴潮危害的减灾效益研究

风暴潮是海洋灾害中对人类造成损失最为严重的类型之一,海岸带地区防潮堤坝的修建对抵御风暴潮起到重要的作用。在综述国内外风暴潮研究的基础上,提出了沿海防潮堤坝对风暴潮的减灾效益的定量研究方法。以黄河三角洲9711号特大台风风暴潮为例,利用G IS技术模拟了无防潮堤坝情况下海岸带地区的受灾面积以及经济损失,并与实际灾害损失进行对比,得出防潮堤坝减少的风暴潮灾害经济损失为25.7亿元的结果,证实了兴建防潮工程的必要性。利用费用-效益法对防潮堤坝工程进行了成本与减灾效益评估,分析了防潮堤坝修建的经济合理性。     

中国台风灾害及其影响的研究

中国是世界上受热带气旋影响最严重的国家之一。本文对影响和登陆中国的热带气旋活动的特征、台风灾害特点及其形成规律作了分析，并讨论了台风灾害对中国社会和经济发展的影响。分析结果指出，影响中国的台风灾害具有发生频率高、突发性强、群发性显著、影响范围广、成灾强度大等特点，这类灾害主要由台风带来的狂风、暴雨、风暴潮及其引发的灾害链所造成。台风灾害不仅造成大批人员伤亡，而且对中国各个经济部门都有严重影响，它所