Modelling performance variabilities in oil spill response to improve system resilience

The Environmental Defense Centers (EDCs) of Brazil provide response services following oil spill accidents. EDCs near affected areas rapidly organize and execute emergency response activities in order to minimize the environmental and economic impacts of spills. The current research applied ergonomic principles and methods (interviews, direct observation and focus groups) to describe common EDC system operations, and to identify constraints and conflicting procedural practices. Results of ergonomic field studies were modeled and analyzed using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which can show how functional variability in planning, preparedness, execution, resources, economic and human factors affect the quality of emergency response activities. The FRAM analyses provide guidance for improving the resilience of oil spill emergency response systems.     

Modelling phytoclimatic versatility as a large scale indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change in forest ecosystems

CLIMPAIR is a new phytoclimatic model, correlative and niche-based, which simultaneously assesses non-linear, non-statistical and dual measurements of proximity/potentiality of a site with respect to a number of climatic ranges of species, defined by convex hulls, within a suitability space. This set of phytoclimatic distances makes it possible to evaluate the degree to which each species is suitable for that site. Considering not only the number of species compatible (expected species richness), but also all those compatible covers presenting a high level of suitability evenness and finally applying an indicator derived from Shannon's classic entropy index to the set of standardized phytoclimatic coordinates in the suitability hyperspace, we can evaluate the phytoclimatic entropy which may be considered as a means of estimating the phytoclimatic versatility of the site. A site with high phytoclimatic entropy would promise versatile future behaviour, characterized by a wide range of possibilities of adaptation to climate change, and hence versatility can be used as an index of resilience and ability of a forest ecosystem to adapt to climate change. The model has been applied to peninsular Spain for 18 forest tree species and 12 climatic variables between the current mean climate (period 1951-1999) and a future climatic scenario (period 2040-2069). The results generally point to a significant decrease in the versatility of forest tree formations in the area studied, which is not homogeneous owing to a dual altitudinal/latitudinal decoupling. The decrease in versatility is greater in Mediterranean biogeographical areas than in Euro-Siberian ones, where in some cases it actually increases. In altitudinal terms, areas at elevations of less than 1500 m tend to become less versatile than areas situated at higher elevations, where versatility increases partly as a result of enrichment of alpine conifer forests with broadleaf species.     

Adapting the adaptive cycle: Hypotheses on the development of ecosystem properties and services

Ecosystems are dynamic complexes. These dynamics can be described by different ecophysiological parameters and systems theoretical concepts like succession, thermodynamics, information/network theory, resilience, adaptability and the orientor concept. In this paper, different indicators and concepts are linked to Holling's adaptive cycle metaphor in order to derive hypotheses on potential system trajectories. The hypotheses focus on an exemplary temperate forest ecosystem experiencing the adaptive cycle's four phases of exploitation, conservation, collapse and reorganization after an initializing fire event. The different properties are correlated to the number of total system connections and show varying trajectories. Additionally, the provision of selected forest ecosystem services during the different phases is hypothesized and compared to three other land use types.     

The successes and challenges of implementing high reliability principles: A case study of a UK oil refinery

Research conducted on organisations that are able to sustain excellent safety records over long time periods suggests that there are a number of practices that organisations can adopt to achieve high levels of reliability and safety. These practices are often discussed in the context of major incidents to highlight the safety standards that high hazard organisations should try to emulate. However, previous research has predominantly focused on non-profit organisations, and comparatively little research has examined whether high reliability practices may be meaningfully applied to commercial contexts. This paper addresses this gap by using a qualitative approach to explore the types of reliability-enhancing practices implemented in a UK-based oil refinery in its attempt to achieve its ethos of ‘safe and reliable operations’. The findings illustrate the successful application of reliability-enhancing practices in several domains, including: hazard identification and control; emergency preparedness and collection; and analysis of incidents and near misses. Management commitment to safety emerged as an important factor underpinning the successful implementation of reliability-enhancing practices, highlighting its potential significance in the context of commercial organisations. However, promoting an open reporting culture and maintaining high levels of management visibility may be some of the challenges encountered by organisations striving to implement reliability-enhancing practices.     

Evaluating the efficacy of adaptive management approaches: Is there a formula for success?

Within the field of natural-resources management, the application of adaptive management is appropriate for complex problems high in uncertainty. Adaptive management is becoming an increasingly popular management-decision tool within the scientific community and has developed into two primary schools of thought: the Resilience-Experimentalist School (with high emphasis on stakeholder involvement, resilience, and highly complex models) and the Decision-Theoretic School (which results in relatively simple models through emphasizing stakeholder involvement for identifying management objectives). Because of these differences, adaptive management plans implemented under each of these schools may yield varying levels of success. We evaluated peer-reviewed literature focused on incorporation of adaptive management to identify components of successful adaptive management plans. Our evaluation included adaptive management elements such as stakeholder involvement, definitions of management objectives and actions, use and complexity of predictive models, and the sequence in which these elements were applied. We also defined a scale of degrees of success to make comparisons between the two adaptive management schools of thought. Our results include the relationship between the adaptive management process documented in the reviewed literature and our defined continuum of successful outcomes. Our data suggest an increase in the number of published articles with substantive discussion of adaptive management from 2000 to 2009 at a mean rate of annual change of 0.92 (r2 = 0.56). Additionally, our examination of data for temporal patterns related to each school resulted in an increase in acknowledgement of the Decision-Theoretic School of thought at a mean annual rate of change of 0.02 (r2 = 0.6679) and a stable acknowledgement for the Resilience-Experimentalist School of thought (r2 = 0.0042; slope = 0.0013). Identifying the elements of successful adaptive management will be advantageous to natural-resources managers considering adaptive management as a decision tool.     

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

The 2015–2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a ‘non-event’. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015–2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

A nexus perspective on competing land demands: Wider lessons from a UK policy case study

As nations develop policies for low-carbon transitions, conflicts with existing policies and planning tools are leading to competing demands for land and other resources. This raises fundamental questions over how multiple demands can best be managed. Taking the UK as an empirical example, this paper critiques current policies and practices to explore the interdependencies at the water-energy-food nexus. It considers how current land uses and related policies affect the UK’s resilience to climate change, setting out an agenda for research and practice relevant to stakeholders in land-use management, policy and modelling. Despite recent progress in recognising such nexus challenges, most UK land-related policies and associated science continue to be compartmentalised by both scale and sector and seldom acknowledge nexus interconnections. On a temporal level, the absence of an over-arching strategy leaves inter-generational trade-offs poorly considered. Given the system lock-in and the lengthy policy-making process, it is essential to develop alternative ways of providing dynamic, flexible, practical and scientifically robust decision support for policy-makers. A range of ecosystem services need to be valued and integrated into a resilient land-use strategy, including the introduction of non-monetary, physical-unit constraints on the use of particular services.     

Scientist and stakeholder perspectives of transdisciplinary research: Early attitudes,expectations, and tensions

Transdisciplinary approaches are becoming increasingly adopted as a way to research complex socio-environmental problems. Conceptually, transdisciplinarity aims to foster meaningful knowledge co-production through integrative and participatory processes that bring together diverse actors, disciplines, and knowledge bases. In practice, transdisciplinarity is more ambiguous. While there is a growing body of literature on such approaches, there remains no widely-accepted definition, concrete framework, or empirical strategy for how to carry out a transdisciplinary project. We propose that this lack of explicit structure and entrenched meaning leaves space for transdisciplinary approaches to be shaped by the evolving network of participating scientists and stakeholders, according to their perspectives of the approach and what it embodies. Here, we examine the perspectives of a diverse group of actors (n = 42) embarking on a 10-year transdisciplinary research project focused on building resilience to natural hazards and disasters in New Zealand. We present the findings of qualitative surveys and group interviews that investigate stakeholders’ and scientists’ early perspectives of transdisciplinary, or co-created, research. The study represents the first stage of longitudinal research that will continue over the course of the project. Results show that early actors in the project share an overall consistent understanding of co-created research. Participants described a process that integrated diverse people and knowledge; created benefits on both a social and personal level; fostered clear, two-way dialogue; and overcame pragmatic and intrinsic challenges. Collectively, participants agreed with adopting transdisciplinary approaches to natural hazard, risk, and resilience research, with stakeholders showing a stronger degree of agreement than scientists. While attitudes towards transdisciplinarity were overall positive, a number of underlying conflicts emerged in regards to carrying out new modes of knowledge production within traditional social and institutional structures. These conflicts result in a tension that is felt by actors involved in transdisciplinary projects early on, and in some cases, influences perception of their ability to fully participate in such an approach. Evaluating actor perspectives and expectations early in the transdisciplinary process can give insight into how attitudes, expectations, and conflicts might shape transdisciplinary efforts, and can provide relevant parameters for assessing change over time.     

Panarchy and community resilience: Sustainability science and policy implications

How does the resilience concept of nested relationships (panarchy) contribute to sustainability science and policy? Resilience at a particular level of organization, the community level in our case, is influenced by internal processes at that level. But it is also impacted by actions at lower levels of organization (individuals, households), and by drivers of change originating at higher levels (national level policies, globalized market forces). We focus on community level social-ecological systems, looking upwards and downwards from there. Our objective is to explore the connections of the community to other levels, the ways in which community resilience is impacted, and the implications of this for sustainability. Conventional disciplines specialize at different levels, a barrier to investigating multi-level interactions. Use of the panarchy concept helps contribute to the interdisciplinary understanding of resilience at the community (and other levels) by drawing attention to cross-scale relationships. From the effect of individual leadership to the implication of pandemics that move swiftly across levels, examples illustrate a diversity of ways in which community resilience is shaped in a multi-level world.