SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

AN ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF PEAK-VOLUME RELATIONS AND STANDARDIZATION PROCEDURES1

ABSTRACT: Much has been written about the linear relationship in log space between the runoff volume of a hydrograph and the peak discharge. Three versions of this relation (an original and two standardizations) have been presented and recommended by various authors. In this paper, the standardized equations are compared to the original relationship and the behavior of the coefficient of determination (r²) in each case is discussed. It is shown that the r² of the standardized equations is increased or decreased relative to that of the original relation based upon the magnitude of the original slope. Further implications of these relationships are discussed and demonstrated using a data base of 90 watersheds and over 1,200 separate flood hydrographs.     

Importance of landscape heterogeneity to wood storks in Florida Everglades

Declines in populations of and reproductive success of wood storks and other wading birds have occurred in the Florida Everglades over the past several decades. These declines have been concurrent with major changes in the Everglades’ landscape characteristics. Among the plausible hypotheses that relate to landscape change are the following: (1) general loss of habitat; (2) heavy loss of specific habitat, namely, short-hydroperiod wetlands that provide high prey availability early in the breeding season; and (3) an increase in frequency of major drying out of the central slough areas, which can affect prey availability late in the breeding season. These three hypotheses were compared using an individual-based model of wood stork (Mycteria americana) reproduction. This model simulated the behavior and energetics of each individual wood stork in a breeding colony on 15-min time intervals. Changes in water depth and prey availability occurred on daily time steps. Simulation results showed a threshold response in reproductive success to reduction of wetland heterogeneity. Model comparisons in which (1) only short-hydroperiod wetlands were removed and (2) wetlands of both long and short hydroperiods were removed showed that, for the same loss of total area, the specific habitat removal caused a much greater reduction in wood stork reproduction, indicating hypothesis 2 may be a more likely explanation than hypothesis 1. Reduction of initial prey availability in the central slough areas (simulating frequent drying; hypothesis 3) reduced fledging success by an average of more than 90% in the model.     

ESTIMATION OF VOLUME-DURATION-FREQUENCY RELATIONS OF UNGAGED SMALL URBAN STREAMS IN OHIO1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes methods for estimating volume-duration-frequency relations of urban streams in Ohio with drainage areas less than 6.5 square miles. The methods were developed to assist engineers in the design of hydraulic structures on urban streams for which temporary storage of water is an important element of the design criteria. Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating maximum flood volumes of d-hour duration and T-year recurrence interval (dV_T). Maximum annual flood-volume data for all combinations of six durations (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 hours) and six recurrence intervals (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years) were analyzed. The significant explanatory variables in the resulting 36 volume-duration-frequency equations are drainage area, average annual precipitation, and basin-development factor. Standard errors of prediction for the 36 dV_T equations range from ±28 percent to ±44 percent.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF LAND PROCESSES IN PUERTO RICO USING REMOTELY SENSED DATA1

ABSTRACT: An integrated, multi-disciplinary effort to model land processes affecting Mayaguez Bay in western Puerto Rico is described. A modeling strategy was developed to take advantage of remotely sensed data. The spatial, interannual, and seasonal variability of sediment discharges to the bay were also evaluated. Classified images of remotely sensed data revealed the spatial distribution and quantities of land use classes in the region and aided in the discretization of the watershed into homogeneous regions. These regions were modeled using a geomorphic modeling technique based upon spatially averaged parameters. Simulation results from the modeling effort compared favorably with observations at two locations within the watershed. Results showed that runoff and sediment loads from the area exhibit a marked seasonal trend and that deforested areas located in the foothill regions of the watershed contribute a disproportionate share of the sediment load to the bay. In years when rainfall distributions are uniformly distributed over the area, the sediment yields may be up to 100 percent higher than years when the rainfall is concentrated in the heavily forested mountainous regions.     

A SPATIAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: A spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed to assess agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution using an NPS pollution model and geographic information systems (GIS). With minimal user interaction, the SDSS assists with extracting the input parameters for a distributed parameter NPS pollution model from user-supplied GIS base layers. Thus, significant amounts of time, labor, and expertise can be saved. Further, the SDSS assists with visualizing and analyzing the output of the NPS pollution simulations. Capabilities of the visualization component include displays of sediment, nutrient, and runoff movement from a watershed. The input and output interface techniques/algorithms used to develop the SDSS, along with an example application of the SDSS, are described.     

COMBINED SEWER OVERFLOW CONTROL THROUGH IN-RECEWING WATER STORAGE: AN EFFICIENCY EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: A demonstration and efficiency evaluation project was conducted for the flow balancing method (FBM) facility, a combined sewer overflow (CSO) storage facility at Fresh Creek in Brooklyn, New York City. The FBM is a curtained tank located directly in the receiving water that captures CSO. The CSO floats on top of and displaces Fresh Creek saltwater before it is pumped back to the publicly owned treatment works (POTW). The facility was a pilot scale subject to the full CSOs. The purpose of the project was to show how the FBM can withstand severe weather and tidal conditions and to develop a procedure for estimating CSO control efficiency (percentage of CSO pumped back to the POTW). The procedure proved successful and incorporated specific conductivity as a tracer in mass balance equations. These equations provided estimates of the net percent, capture-pumpback of the CSO using the FBM, including the amount of Fresh Creek water that was included in the pumpback to the P01W. The efficiency was directly related to the volume of the CSO and the pumpback rate and ranged from a low of 3.3 percent for the largest event to a high of 76.9 percent for the smallest event. Recent FBM enlargement should result in substantial increases in CSO control. The FBM facility has operated successfully for over five years, withstanding ice storms, near hurricane force winds and up to 7 ft tidal range.     

PROJECTION OF URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON RUNOFF USING CLARK INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: To alleviate serious flooding problems brought upon by rapid urbanization in the Beargrass Creek watershed, located in Louisville, Kentucky, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers undertook a major flood study in 1973. In order to predict flood conditions in 1990, the year when the watershed was expected to undergo complete urbanization, trends in the Clark Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (Clark IUH) parameters were utilized to determine the 1990 unit hydrograph and flood conditions. Based on the results from this flood study, this paper demonstrates the applicability of using projected Clark IUH parameters for modeling future runoff conditions in an urbanizing watershed. Values of these parameters, as estimated from maximum annual historical flood data, are used to develop regression models for predicting future Clark IUH parameters. Using the projected parameters, selected annual flood events since 1973 are simulated in order to verify the accuracy of these projections. Results show a close correspondence between the simulated and observed flood characteristics. Hence, the use of projected Clark IUH parameters is an appropriate procedure for modeling future runoff conditions in an urbanizing watershed.     

TESTS OF THE CREAMS MODEL ON AGRICULTURAL FIELDS IN VERMONT1

ABSTRACT: The computer model, CREAMS, has been developed for field-sized agricultural areas to aid in best management practices evaluation and planning. A test of CREAMS was performed by comparing monthly observed and simulated values for runoff, sediment, and phosphorus exports from two agricultural fields in Vermont to determine the applicability of the model in cold climates. Water quality samples were collected from field runoff and analyzed for both total suspended solids and total phosphorus. Generally, exports were overestimated during low flow months and underestimated during high flow months. Significant r²values (p <0.05), ranging from 0.78 to 0.90, between simulated and observed data were found for all comparisons except for sediment export from one field. Comparisons of the slopes of the regressions between observed and simulated values and the ideal slope of one using t-tests revealed significant differences between simulated and observed monthly runoff, sediment, and phosphorus exports. It is postulated that this lack of adequate prediction could be attributed to the use of average monthly, instead of daily, temperature and solar radiation in calculations of evapotranspiration and snowmelt, and the use of static parameter values for parameters that vary seasonally.     

SPACE-TIME MODELING OF VECTOR HYDROLOGIC SEQUENCES1

Stochastic modeling of vector hydrologic sequences is examined with a general class of space-time autoregressive integrated moving average (STARIMA) models. The models describe spatial and temporal autocorrelatjon, through dependent variables lagged both in space and time. The model structures incorporate a hierarchical ordering scheme to map the vector of observations into a network configuration. The neighboring structure used introduces a physical/geographical hierarchy to enable the model identification procedures to assist in determining appropriate correlative relationships. The three-stage iterative space-time model building procedure is illustrated using average monthly streamfiow data for a four-station network of the Southeastern Hydropower System.