四川旅游经济产业化发展对策与模式

针对作为旅游资源大省的四川在旅游经济效益方面处于全国甚至西部地区的中下水平,探讨如何开发这一产业,并使之成为四川经济的重要支柱产业.结合四川省的旅游经济现状、产业优势和出现的问题等方面进行分析,提出了四川省旅游经济产业化发展的3种模式,即政府主导模式、"资源 资本"模式、中外合资开发模式.     

Climatic Variation and Solute Concentration and Flux in Meltwaters Draining from an Alpine Glacier

Measurements of electrical conductivity and discharge ofmeltwaters in the Gornera, which drains from the 83%glacierised basin containing Gornergletscher, PennineAlps, Switzerland, were undertaken between May andSeptember in both 1979 and 1998. Discharge in theGornera was 43% higher in 1998, average air temperatureduring the ablation season being 2.1 °C warmer andpreceding winter precipitation 28% lower than in 1979. Mean electrical conductivity of meltwater in 1998 wasreduced by 40%. In the same 60 day period in 1998,however, solute flux was augmented by only 2% bycomparison with 1979. Year-to-year climatic variations,reflected in discharge variability, strongly affectsolute concentration in glacial meltwaters, but havelimited impact on solute flux. Climatic conditionstranslate into meltwater quality through inter-relationships between mineral reaction rates, subglacialresidence time in contact with sediment, and discharge. Annual variability in solute flux depends on the extentto which volume of flow can offset decline in soluteconcentration brought about by reducing residence time.     

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990–1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.     

CULTURAL EVOLUTION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: This article reports the findings of a case study of a major California water management district's effort to change its management approach. The following key findings and factors have influenced the Salinas basin management plan (BMP) and its progress: (1) the Salinas Valley is an economy dominated by highly sophisticated irrigated agriculture dependent on ground water; (2) a persistent pattern of agricultural overdraft of ground water has hurt growers primarily in the north end of the valley via induced saline intrusion of irrigation wells; (3) a complex set of water institutions, property and water rights, and land lease practices offer little incentive for good stewardship of land and water; and (4) the BMP approach initially may have intensified tension among growers and between growers and other water user groups. Water rules and practices in the Salinas Valley and Monterey County have evolved through a long historical process of adaptations. Therefore, any significant changes in local water use practices need to be understood in terms of cultural change, that is, changes in deeply held values, beliefs, and assumptions. We believe the BMP and the MCWRA are succeeding when evaluated from this evolutionary perspective. The fact that both still exist relatively intact testifies that they are working, albeit slowly.     

四川绵竹5.0级地震的电磁辐射前兆信息特征

在1999-09-14和1999-11-30绵竹两次5.0级地震前,位于四川省龙门山断裂带上的几个地表台和井下台分别接收到不同频段、不同形态、不同强度的电磁幅射异常信号。本文分析了地震前后电磁幅射信号由弱—强—弱—平静的变化过程,总结出震前电磁幅射异常信息具有持续时间长、范围大、信号强、信息组数多、信息减弱或平静后数天发震的特征。同时尝试用旋转ULF- 地表电磁波信息观测仪天线方位或转动地表DPJ- 点频电磁幅射仪接收天线位置的方法跟踪来波方位,取得较好效果。     

永定河流域春季大型底栖动物群落结构和空间格局

为了解永定河流域大型底栖动物群落结构与空间分布状况,2017年春季调查了永定河流域大型底栖动物群落,采集并鉴定出大型底栖动物77个分类单元,其中水生昆虫为绝对优势类群。聚类分析表明,永定河流域底栖动物群落结构在空间上与流域地理格局基本一致,上游区洋河、妫水河、桑干河以直突摇蚊、流水长跗摇蚊、间摇蚊为优势类群,中游区永定河山峡段以钩虾、台湾蜉、近岸细蜉为主,下游区五湖一线段以德永摇蚊、恩菲摇蚊、沼虾为优势类群。直接收集者成为流域内绝对优势功能摄食类群,在不同区域的相对丰度均达到90%以上。单因素方差分析显示,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和Pielou均匀度指数无组间差异,Margalef丰富度指数和物种数在中游区和下游区差异显著(P0.05)。研究表明流域大型底栖动物群落出现了整体退化,生物多样性下降,重度-中度耐污类群成为优势,多数河段功能摄食类群不完整,永定河流域生态系统保护和修复工作亟待开展。     

应用鱼类完整性指数F-IBI评价巢湖流域的主要河流健康

保护河流健康是河流生态管理的重要目标,鱼类对维护河流生态系统健康的作用重要且不可替代。依据2013年10月巢湖53个河流采样点的鱼类调查数据,采用假设参照值法构建鱼类生物完整性指数(F-IBI)的参照系统,进而评价河流健康状况。基于29个候选生物参数,通过参数与环境因子间的相关性分析、参数间的冗余分析及其分布范围分析,确定F-IBI由鱼类总物种数、鲤科鱼类物种数百分比、中下层鱼类物种数百分比、肉食性鱼类数量百分比、产粘性卵鱼类数量百分比和耐受性鱼类数量百分比等6个参数构成。利用比值法统一各参数量纲,F-IBI值即为各构成参数比值的累加,进而评价河流水生态健康的等级,其中亚健康的采样点占16.98%,健康状况一般的采样点占50.94%,健康状况较差的采样点占32.08%。此外,影响巢湖主要河流F-IBI的重要水环境变量是叶绿素a。对重点污染区域,修复水生态系统和制定科学合理的策略,是恢复巢湖流域生态健康的重要手段。     

Spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for multicriteria-based vulnerability assessment

This research analyses the application of spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for GIS (Geographic Information System) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment regarding flooding in the Salzach river catchment in Austria. The research methodology is based on a spatially explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of GIS-CDA for an assessment of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate how a unified approach of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can be applied to minimise the associated uncertainty within each dimension of the vulnerability assessment. The methodology proposed for achieving this objective is composed of four main steps. The first step is computing criteria weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the second step, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to calculate the uncertainties associated with AHP weights. In the third step, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is employed in the form of a model-independent method of output variance decomposition, in which the variability of the different vulnerability assessments is apportioned to every criterion weight, generating one first-order (S) and one total effect (ST) sensitivity index map per criterion weight. Finally, in the fourth step, an ordered weighted averaging method is applied to model the final vulnerability maps. The results of this research demonstrate the robustness of spatially explicit GSA for minimising the uncertainty associated with GIS-MCDA models. Based on these results, we conclude that applying the variance-based GSA enables assessment of the importance of each input factor for the results of the GIS-MCDA method, both spatially and statistically, thus allowing us to introduce and recommend GIS-based GSA as a useful methodology for minimising the uncertainty of GIS-MCDA.     

流域立法视角下生态流量保障的制度供给--以长江流域为例

生态流量保障的重难点在于流域生态流量不足问题的妥善解决。生态流量不足基于产生的原因可分为“自然型”和“人为型”。“人为型”生态流量不足的根源在于《水法》第4条规定的三生用水关系未得到妥善处理,实质上是水资源分配和管理不合理所致。具体表现为水资源保护理念镶嵌在制度表层、生态流量缺乏核心制度保障、流域规划匮乏强效监督机制、流域水资源分配信息公开不足、末端行政考核制度偏重水质管控、生态用水制度顶层设计与地方实施间落差巨大等。流域立法作为立法体系的中间环节,对上位法具有填补协调功能,对地方立法具有引领指导作用。建议在流域立法过程中,通过制度设计解构流域生态流量保障现存的制度困境,主要包括以下几个方面:一是完成流域特有保护理念到实体制度的转型。二是基于流域生态修复、水资源生态红线管控制度的开展以及有效衔接规划环境影响评价制度的需要,建立生态流量管控指标制度体系不可或缺。三是基于流域规划对三生用水的初始分配性,将生态流量供给纳入流域规划体系中,从水资源分配初始阶段保障生态流量,同时强化流域水资源规划制度的监督机制,健全规划制定的程序性规范,明确科学考察和调查评价人员的构成规则、方式及模式。四是依法加深政府信息公开程度保障公众的知情权、参与权及监督权。五是完善行政考核制度体系强化对生态流量供给的考核。     

长江中游西部地区洪水灾害的历史演变——人文因素与当前趋势

探讨了近3000年来长江中游西部洪水灾害发展的人文因素。古代（3000—700aBP）人口较少,多择地势高的岗地居住,只有少数沿江城市需要堤防保护;长江干流洪水可多处分道散流,所携带泥沙导致云梦泽解体消亡。自宋代开始,低地筑垸围湖,与水争地,但九穴十三口畅通,洪水灾害不严重。明代（700—450a B P）几乎完全堵塞了荆江北流的穴口,荆北大堤联成一体,但堤防薄弱,出现过30次决口成灾。清代以来,随着人口激增,与水争地矛盾加剧,堤防加高培厚,使荆江河道洪水位大幅度上升,溃堤和溃坝洪水灾害较明代成倍出现。同时,历代的“舍南保北”政策迫使长江干流大洪水中过半水量与泥沙向南泄入洞庭湖,曾使洞庭湖面积扩至6000km^2,以后洞庭湖迅速淤积萎缩。1949至1985年间,人口又一次迅速增长,进一步加强围湖垦殖,大量通江湖泊面积萎缩。除1954和1998年那样人所共知的严重洪水灾害外,内涝渍水灾害也非常严重,人类与洪水的矛盾达到了顶点。改革开放后,尤其是三峡大坝的修建,极大地改变了长江中游的水文情势,工业化与城市化的迅猛发展,农村人口压力减轻,而21世纪初期降水相对较少,因此当前相当一段时间长江中游洪水灾害大为缓和。应抓住时机,总结经验,在人地和谐的现代水科学技术理念指导下,制定21世纪前半期,特别是2020年前的长江水利和水资源发展规划,促使人与洪水和谐共处。