辽宁省自然灾害及基本特点

辽宁是一个自然灾害较多的省,地质灾害、气象灾害、海洋灾害、农业灾害和林业灾害部比较频繁。本文在总结上述灾害的基础上,指出了辽宁自然灾害的特点,即自然灾害的分布严格受自然地理和地质构造条件的控制;人类生产活动恶化了原有的自然环境,从而加速了灾害的发生和发展;灾害类型多,成灾面积广;灾害的频度逐年增加。     

2000-2009年全国职业中毒状况规律分析和对策探讨

职业中毒是我国的主要职业病之一,严重影响着劳动者的健康和社会的和谐稳定。根据卫生部2000-2009年公布的职业病统计数据,分析总结我国职业中毒的发生规律。结果表明：职业中毒是仅次于尘肺病的第二大类职业病。职业中毒占职业病总数的12.8%-18%,在职业中毒病例中,急性职业中毒占22.4%-39.6%,慢性职业中毒占60.4%-77.6%。职业中毒总人数变化从2000年到2005年较平稳,从2006年起,呈波浪形上升趋势,但其增幅远小于职业病总数和尘肺病新发病例人数的增幅。其中,急性职业中毒总人数略有下降趋势,慢性职业中毒总人数呈波浪形上升趋势。引起急性职业中毒占前两位的化学毒物主要是一氧化碳和硫化氢,引起慢性职业中毒占前两位的化学毒物主要是铅及其化合物和苯。中小企业职业中毒发生率高。建议各级职能部门重点加强相关行业的监管,尤其是其中的中小企业的监管;履行指导的职责,加强有效果的安全教育和培训;同时加强职业监控监护。     

生物质燃烧的二噁英排放特性

通过室内模拟燃烧5种生物质,分别采集燃烧排放的烟气作为样品,然后分析生物质和燃烧产物的二噁英含量,得到玉米秸秆、稻草、松树、桉树、松针燃烧的二噁英排放因子分别为2.59、16.78、1.44、5.15、34.12 n.gkg-1,对应的I-TEQ浓度为0.26、1.04、0.10、0.31、1.49 n.gkg-1.O...     

Estimating influence of stocking regimes on livestock grazing distributions

Livestock often concentrate grazing in particular regions of landscapes while partly or wholly avoiding other regions. Dispersing livestock from the heavily grazed regions is a central challenge in grazing land management. Position data gathered from GPS-collared livestock hold potential for increasing knowledge of factors driving livestock aggregation patterns, but advances in gathering the data have outpaced advancements in analyzing and learning from it. We fit a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to explore how season of stocking and the location where cattle entered a pasture influenced grazing distributions. Stocking alternated between summer on one side of the pasture one year and fall on another side of the pasture the next year for 18 years. Waypoints were recorded on cattle for 50 d each year. We focused our analysis on the pasture's 10 most heavily grazed 4-ha units, because these units were the most prone to negative grazing impacts. Though grazing of the study units was always disproportionately heavy, it was much heavier with the summer than fall stocking regime: Bayesian confidence intervals indicate summer grazing of study units was approximately double the average fall grazing value. This is our core result, and it illustrates the strong effect stocking season or date or both can have on grazing distributions. We fit three additional models to explore the relative importance of stocking season versus location. According to this analysis, stocking season played a role, but stocking location was the main driver. Ostensibly minor factors (e.g. stocking location) can greatly influence livestock distributions.     

17份腰果种质萌生特征比较

对17份腰果种质进行截干处理,测定截干后萌生新梢的总数、长度、直径和叶片数,分析不同腰果种质萌生能力之间的差异,同时对植株大小与萌生能力之间的相关性以及新梢各性状之间的相关性进行分析。试验结果表明：不同腰果种质的萌生能力有差异,在新梢总数、长度、直径和叶片数上均存在不同程度的差异;植株的萌生能力与截干前冠幅以及被截一级枝条直径大小有关,新梢长度、直径、叶片数、新梢总数与截干前植株冠幅和被截一级枝条直径之间均呈极显著的正相关关系;新梢总数、长度、直径、叶片数等性状中,除新梢总数与新梢叶片数之间的相关性不显著外,其余各性状彼此间的相关性均达极显著水平。     

不同地理分布区中国林蛙的身体特征变异

采用形态比较学和数值分类相结合,对中国山西、辽宁、内蒙古等地的中国林蛙各居群的身体特征进行探讨.通过对大量标本的测量分析,结果认为:随着地理经纬度的变化和生境的转移,林蛙的各项身体特征表现出一定程度的变异.愈靠近东北林蛙分布区,其个体愈大,各项数据比对差异明显,从而可初步界定中国林蛙与东北林蛙的分界线.     

隧道爆破振动影响因素的灰色关联分析

为优化隧道爆破方案,降低爆破振动危害,采用灰色关联分析法(GRA)对爆破振动的影响因素进行分析。首先确定振动速度、主振频率和振动持续时间作为系统特征变量,确定总药量、最大段药量、掏槽孔最大段药量、雷管段数、爆心距、最小延期间隔时间、临空面数等作为相关因素变量;再结合厦门某隧道爆破实测数据,进行灰色关联计算;然后对计算结果进行排序和优势分析,得到爆破振动影响因素的主次顺序,其中准优因素为爆心距,可控准优因素为雷管段数和掏槽眼最大段药量;最后对隧道爆破参数进行优化,测点爆破振速由1.2 cm/s减小到0.74 cm/s,降振率达38.3%。结果表明,采用GRA确定爆破振动主要影响因素,为有效控制爆破振动提供理论依据。     

内蒙古白云鄂博矿区土壤稀土元素污染特征及评价

白云鄂博矿床是世界上最大的轻稀土矿床,在长期开采过程中向周围环境中释放了大量的稀土元素.为了制定有效地修复方案,必须对稀土元素的浓度、空间分布、分布模式、污染水平和生态风险进行分析和评价.结果表明,土壤样品总稀土含量平均值为6064.95 mg·kg^-1,高于对照点（207.44 mg·kg^-1）、内蒙古（150.95 mg·kg^-1）和中国（184.72 mg·kg^-1）土壤背景值,说明周边土壤出现稀土富集现象.轻稀土元素占到稀土总量的83%~99%,Ce是最主要的轻稀土元素.总稀土的高值区域主要集中于矿源附近,分布极不均匀,受外界干扰较大.各个功能区稀土球粒陨石标准化模式相似,归一化曲线向右倾斜,轻重稀土分馏明显.δCe和δEu的计算显示土壤具有明显的Ce正异常和Eu负异常.La/Yb、La/Sm和Gd/Yb的比值表明,土壤中稀土元素的分布模式是轻稀土元素富集,而且轻稀土元素较重稀土元素具有更为显著的分馏作用.采用4种方法对研究区土壤中稀土元素污染状况和生态风险进行评价.地累积指数计算表明Ce、Nd、Pr和La的均值达到了重污染程度.校正污染程度评价结果显示,不同功能区稀土元素的平均mC_d值范围为7.14~31.38,尾矿库属于高污染水平,居民区和工业区属于非常高污染水平,而采矿区和排土场则达到极高污染水平.污染负荷指数评价显示尾矿库属于中度污染水平,其余功能区则达到重度污染水平.白云鄂博矿区土壤中稀土元素的潜在生态风险指数范围为120.99~6376.46,33%的样点呈现出极强生态风险,16%的样点呈现很强的生态风险,12%的样点呈现较强的生态风险,30%的样点呈现中等风险,只有9%的样点呈现较低的生态风险.因此,亟待采取有效地措施来控制白云鄂博矿区土壤中稀土元素的污染和潜在生态风险.     

Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species: Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand

The spread of invasive species is a major ecological and economic problem. Dynamic spread modelling is a potentially valuable tool to assist regional and central government authorities to monitor and control invasive species. To date a lack of suitable data has meant that most broad scale dispersal models have not been validated with independent datasets, and so their predictive ability and reliability has remained unscrutinised. A dynamic, stochastic dispersal model of the widely invasive plant Buddleja davidii was calibrated on European spread data and then used to project the temporal progression of B. davidii's distribution in New Zealand, starting from several different historical distributions. To assess the model's performance, we constructed an occupancy map based on the average number of simulation realisations that have a population present. The application of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to occupancy maps is introduced, but with specificity substituted by the proportion of available area used in a realisation. A derivative measure, the partial area under these curves when assessed through time (pAUC), is introduced and used to assess overall performance of the spread model. The model was able to attain a high level of model sensitivity, encompassing all of the known locations within the occupancy envelope. However, attempting to simulate the spread of this invasive species beyond a decade had very low model specificity. This is due to several factors, including the exponential process of spread (the further a population spreads the more sites exist from which it can spread stochastically), and the Markovian chain property of the stochastic system whereby differences between realisations compound through time. These features are seen in many reports of spread models, without being explicitly acknowledged. Our measure of pAUC through time allows a model's temporal performance and its specificity to be simultaneously assessed. While the rapid deterioration in model performance limits the utility of this type of modelling for forecasting long-term broad-scale strategic management of biological invasions, it does not necessarily limit its attractiveness for informing smaller scale and shorter term invasion management activities such as surveillance, containment and local eradication.     

郑州市大气PM2.5中重金属的污染特征、来源及健康风险评估:基于高分辨数据

为了研究城市大气PM_2.5中重金属的污染特征和来源,于2017年的7月和10月及2018年的1月和4月,利用在线金属分析仪对郑州市大气PM_2.5中的21种元素进行在线检测,分析了重金属浓度变化;通过富集因子、主成分分析和潜在源贡献等方法对重金属进行溯源;采用环境健康风险评价模型评估其健康风险.结果表明,K、 Zn、 Mn、 Pb、 Cu、 As、 Cr和Se的浓度随污染等级的提高而增加;富集因子和主成分分析法结果表明,重金属主要来源为地壳源、混合燃烧源、工业源和机动车源;雷达特征图表明,地壳源主导的污染主要发生在春、冬两季,混合燃烧源主导的污染主要发生在冬季;Pb、 As和Ni受汾渭平原、京津冀和河南南部的传输影响较大,Cd受采样点西北部影响较大;As对成年人和儿童均有显著致癌风险,Pb和Sb对儿童存在显著非致癌风险.