从非典事件看政府的危机管理制度创新

传染性非典型肺炎一度在世界各地迅速蔓延,是对政府的危机管理制度一次前所未有的严峻考验。这次非典危机也暴露出了我国政府危机管理制度存在的缺陷。我们必须抓住这个契机,进行政府危机管理制度的创新,以不断提升政府的危机管理能力。     

基于混沌理论的海南旅游业危机预警机制构建

基于混沌理论构建旅游业危机预警机制是防治旅游业危机的有效手段。阐述了旅游业危机理论、混沌理论和旅游业危机预警机制理论,剖析了海南2007--2010年旅游业危机事件,建立了海南旅游业危机评价指标体系、危机预警机制、危机防治综合管理机制和教育与宣传等系统。研究表明,防治旅游业危机事件,关键是重视旅游行业初期敏感性,对初始值进行有效控制,而建立危机预警机制、危机防治综合管理机制和加强教育与宣传是其核心内容。     

安全生产责任的制度整合与伦理道德建设

在分析安全生产责任危机含义和安全生产责任概念基础上,指明安全生产责任体系的"四要素",即道德责任、政治责任、法律责任与管理责任,重点阐明道德责任是该体系的基础要素及其意义。根据对我国现有安全生产责任制度的分析,提出一个关于安全生产责任制度建设的伦理框架:强化安全生产责任意识;用人权伦理原则对安全生产责任制度伦理化;以特定的安全生产责任的伦理规范和准则构建责任规则系统;强化责任主体道德素质培养与监察制度建设,促使其自觉履行好自身应负的安全生产责任。总之,该理论框架为安全生产责任制度建立提供一个新的伦理学基础。     

金融危机下民营制造业可持续发展路径与政府责任

制造业仍然是中国国民经济的支柱产业.金融危机对外向型的中国制造业造成了严重的冲击,应对危机的根本途径是在提高国际竞争力和承担社会责任之间取得平衡,走可持续发展道路.在中国制造业中,民营企业已经占据主体地位,但是国际竞争力并不强.增强民营制造业企业的国际竞争力是我国制造业乃至整个国民经济摆脱困境的必然选择.目前,我国民营制造企业虽有一定发展,但总体上还处于国际分工价值链的低端,"硬竞争力"和"软竞争力"都明显不足,既受到技术、资金的硬件限制,又没有形成优秀的品牌和企业文化.要提高其国际竞争力,既取决于民营制造企业自身的努力,又要靠政府提供有利的发展环境.民营制造业企业要自主创新、以质取胜、加强管理,并且要增加社会责任感.政府需要在准入条件、融资环境和税收环境方面提供支持.     

我国世界遗产管理危机与对策研究

世界遗产是全人类的共同财富,也是最具吸引力的旅游资源。通过对我国世界遗产地管理危机的分析,指出目前我国世界遗产地主要面临资源危机、形象危机、负面事件危机、资金危机等七大主要危机,提出了针对性的建议。     

Subjective modeling choices and the robustness of impact evaluations in conservation science

Arbitrary modeling choices are inevitable in scientific studies. Yet, few empirical studies in conservation science report the effects these arbitrary choices have on estimated results. I explored the effects of subjective modeling choices in the context of counterfactual impact evaluations. Over 5000 candidate models based on reasonable changes in the choice of statistical matching algorithms (e.g., genetic and nearest distance mahalanobis matching), the parametrization of these algorithms (e.g., number of matches), and the inclusion of specific covariates (e.g., distance to nearest city, slope, or rainfall) were valid for studying the effect of Virunga National Park in Democratic Republic of the Congo on changes in tree cover loss and carbon storage over time. I randomly picked 2000 of the 5000 candidate models to determine how much and which subjective modeling choices affected the results the most. All valid models indicated that tree cover loss decreased and carbon storage increased in Virunga National Park from 2000 to 2019. Nonetheless, the order of magnitude of the estimates varied by a factor of 3 (from −4.78 to −13.12 percentage points decrease in tree cover loss and from 20 to 46 t Ce/ha for carbon storage). My results highlight that modeling choices, notably the choice of the matching algorithm, can have significant effects on point estimates and suggest that more structured robustness checks are a key step toward more credible findings in conservation science.     

城市公共危机管理框架及系统平台研究

在分析公共危机特点和危机管理的关键问题的基础上,归纳了城市公共危机管理的9个主题,从组织结构、信息系统、应急计划、社会应对能力4个层面提炼出较为完整的、针对城市的公共危机管理框架。基于该框架,按照日常管理与应急管理相结合的要求,设计了城市公共危机管理系统平台概念模型,详细分析了系统各个模块之间的关系;并从危机监测分析和危机应急指挥两个层面具体研究了系统平台技术体系和建设方法。最后,对公共危机管理系统建设现状和未来研究重点进行了讨论。     

浅谈应急心理干预对事故影响的作用

随着大工业的发展，其所带来的重大事故或自然灾害导致的事故后果常常可以和战争相提并论，其后果影响给与人们带来的心理恐慌和应急时产生的心理危机已经影响人们的正常生活，并逐渐被人们重视。因此心理危机干预已经逐渐成为抢险救灾的一个当然的组成部分，心理干预技术已经是成熟的，在国际上已经普遍被采用。当突发事故发生或当遇到突发事件伤害时，克服紧张情绪，沉着冷静并学会如何与人沟通，解决各种应急事件导致的心理障碍是非常重要的任务。     

Arsenic mineralization,source, distribution,and abundance in the Kutahya region of the western Anatolia,Turkey

Environmental exposure to arsenic (As) in the Kutahya region of the western Anatolia, Turkey has been reported to cause various types of arsenic-associated skin disorders (Dogan, Dogan, Celebi, & Baris, 2005). A geological and mineralogical study was conducted to find the sources and distribution of the As. Geogenic (background) levels were measured in samples collected from various sources in the Gediz, Simav, Tavsanli, Emet, Yoncali, Yenicekoy, and Muratdagi areas of the Kutahya region. Based on this analysis, we determined that natural sources are a domineering factor affecting the distribution of As, which was found: (1) mainly in evaporitic minerals, including colemanite (269–3900 ppm) and gypsum (11–99,999 ppm), but also in alunite (7–10 ppm) and chert (54–219 ppm); (2) in secondary epithermal gypsum, which has a high concentration of As in the form of realgar and orpiment along fracture zones of Mesozoic and Cenozoic carbonate aquifers; (3) in rocks, including limestone/dolomite (3–699 ppm) and travertine (5–4736 ppm), which are relatively more enriched in As than volcanics (2–14 ppm), probably because of secondary enrichment through hydrological systems; (4) in coal (1.9–46.5 ppm) in the sedimentary successions of the Tertiary basins; (5) in thermal waters, where As is unevenly distributed at concentrations varying from 0.0–0.9 mg/l. The highest As concentrations in thermal water (Gediz and Simav) correlate to the higher pH (7–9.3) and T (60–83°C) conditions and to the type of water (Na–HCO₃–SO₄ with high concentration of Ca, Mg, K, SiO₂, and Cl in the water). Changes in pH can be related to some redox reactions, such as the cation exchange reactions driving the dissolution of carbonates and silicates. Fe-oxidation, high pH values (7–9.3), presence of other trace metals (Ni, Co, Pb, Zn, Al), increased salinity (Na, Cl), high B, Li, F, and SiO, high Fe, SO₄ (magnetite, specularite-hematite, gypsum), and graphite, and the presence of U, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, and B, especially in the Emet, Gediz, and Simav areas, are the typical indicators for the geothermally affected water with high As content. A sixth source of As in this region is the ground (0.0–10.7 mg/l) and the surface waters (0.0022–0.01 mg/l), which are controlled by water–rock interaction, fracture system, and mixing/dilution of thermal waters. The high As concentration in groundwater corresponds to the areas where pathological changes are greatest in the habitants. Arsenic in ground water also effects ecology. For example, only Juriperus oxycedrus and J. varioxycedrus types of vegetation are observed in locations with the highest concentration of As in the region. Branches and roots of these plants are enriched in As.     

Facilitating disaster preparedness through local radio broadcasting

The 2008 Disaster Mitigation Preparedness (DMP) study took place in Aceh province, Indonesia. It sought to help develop radio programmes and messages to increase resilience to disasters. The role of radio was evaluated during and after the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. The study team interviewed 984 tsunami survivors from nine sub-districts of Banda Aceh, and local nongovernmental organisations convened eight focus groups around the area of Aceh Besar. Six key informant interviews were held with government disaster management agencies. The DMP survey is the first of its kind to interview a representative random sample of Banda Aceh residents. It reveals the importance of community and social networks, during disaster situations, when essential communications are down. A disaster warning information system based on a multi-media approach needs to be developed. The wider community should be involved in the planning, education and training of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar residents to facilitate appropriate personal and community survival strategies.