分布式光纤测温技术在隧道火灾和渗漏探测中的应用

隧道火灾和渗漏一直是隧道安全和健康的重要问题。基于分布式光纤测温系统(DTS)具有能实现在线实时监测且实测温度随光纤沿程分布这一技术特点和优势,将单根分布式光纤应用于隧道火灾的预警预报、火灾定位、隧道渗漏定位,属国内首创。本文介绍了DTS测温原理和实测成果。实测情况表明,DTS系统测温精确,抗干扰性强,特别适合隧道火灾预警预报和渗漏探测,具有良好的应用前景。     

河湖水系连通研究:概念框架

河湖水系连通已经成为国家江河治理的重大需求,提高国家水资源统筹调配能力、改善河湖健康保障能力、增强抵御水旱灾害能力迫切需要加强河湖水系连通研究,但相关的理论和技术尚处于探索阶段,远远落后于实践。论文根据新形势下保障国家水安全和提高生态文明水平的新要求,讨论了河湖水系连通的概念及内涵,并讨论了河湖水系连通的系统性、复杂性、动态性和时空性等特征,在综合考虑河湖水系连通目标和任务的基础上,提出河湖水系连通战略研究可从机理分析、系统辨识与评价、连通工程规划、系统控制与调整4个方面展开,明确了研究的总体思路,对尺度、过程、格局、功能与控制等研究的基本问题进行了初步讨论。     

An urban pipeline accident model based on system engineering and game theory

Urban pipeline accidents are caused by complex social-technical factors, in which urban communities and pipeline systems are involved. Such accidents can thus be investigated from the viewpoint of system engineering. System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) is a systemic method for safety assessment, which has been adopted in many domains. This approach can provide deep insights of accident causes by considering direct and indirect factors. Meanwhile, competition and cooperation between stakeholders in accidents are observed. Therefore, these parties can also be analyzed with the game theory. That is, stakeholders in STAMP can be regarded as players in game. The aim of this paper is to provide a new insight to analyze urban pipeline accidents by considering both STAMP and game theory. In this paper, we proposed an accident model for urban pipelines, with a case study of China-Qingdao pipeline accident occurred in 2013. We concluded that accident reasons can be investigated in-depth and lessons can be learned from analyzing causal factors by using STAMP. Based on results generated from STAMP, we applied the game theory to analyze roles that government and companies act in the China-Qingdao urban pipeline accident. The results show that current punishment and incentive systems are incomplete, lacking of the driving force and constraining force for the stakeholders involved in the accident.     

Modeling patterns of breakdown (or archetypes) of human and organizational processes in accidents using system dynamics

Systems approaches to safety have received growing attention in modern accident investigation techniques (e.g., STAMP, Accimap) with the emphasis shifted to the organizational dynamics (or archetypes) that may lead to an erosion of defenses and a drift out of the safety margins. Although the literature contains many applications of archetypes and system dynamics to safety, this richness comes at a cost of learning. It has become very difficult for safety practitioners to integrate the diverse studies of system dynamics with their diverging models. To provide a practical tool of system dynamics in accident investigation, this article reviews earlier studies and integrates them as a classification of patterns of breakdown (or archetypes) of both human and organizational processes on the basis of two control models, that is, the Extended Control Model (ECOM) and the Viable System Model (VSM). In this article, archetypes are represented as variants of two generic templates of performance which exploit many elements of complexity theory and system control. Apart from providing a practical tool to safety practitioners to access the literature on archetypes, the generic templates of ECOM and VSM can be used in building simulators of individual and organizational processes for risk analysis.     

基于场、网模拟的地铁隧道火灾控风模式分析

为全面定量分析地铁火灾情况下人员疏散过程,基于网模拟和场模拟对地铁火灾环境的适应性,分析列车着火并滞留在隧道的不同控风方案的可行性,以天津1号线下瓦房站至南楼站之间的隧道为例,用网模拟技术模拟出隧道内风流状态,为场维模拟提供边界条件。以网模拟得出的火源相邻分支风速2 m/s为边界条件进行场模拟,得出的结果表明,列车车头着火并滞留在隧道中,人员在6 min的安全疏散时间内,从着火隧道经联络通道向相邻隧道疏散的情况下,着火隧道推拉式排烟,相邻隧道对送风为可行通风模式。     

Combining state and transition models with dynamic Bayesian networks

Bashari et al. (2009) propose combining state and transition models (STMs) with Bayesian networks for decision support tools where the focus is on modelling the system dynamics. There is already an extension of Bayesian networks - so-called dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) - for explicitly modelling systems that change over time, that has also been applied in ecological modelling. In this paper we propose a combination of STMs and DBNs that overcome some of the limitations of Bashari et al.’s approach including providing an explicit representation of the next state, while retaining its advantages, such an the explicit representation of transitions. We then show that the new model can be applied iteratively to predict into the future consistently with different time frames. We use Bashari et al.’s rangeland management problem as an illustrative case study. We present a comparative complexity analysis of the different approaches, based on the structure inherent in the problem being modelled. This analysis showed that any models that explicitly represent all the transitions only remain tractable when there are natural constraints in the domain. Thus we recommend modellers should analyse these aspects of their problem before deciding whether to use the framework.     

Integrated urban ecosystem evaluation and modeling based on embodied cosmic exergy

This paper presented a thermodynamic synthesis that involved resource accounting, evaluation and modeling of urban ecosystems based on embodied cosmic exergy (EcE), which redefined embodied exergy with the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) as the reference for solar exergy. In a case study of the Beijing urban ecosystem, the major resources supporting the urban ecosystem, both from free natural resources and from the economy, were accounted for, analyzed and evaluated in the same units, Cosmic Joules (Jc). These indicators revealed the current performance of the Beijing urban ecosystem by considering five aspects of the system: EcE sources, EcE intensity, EcE welfare, environmental impacts and economic efficiency. Moreover, through the combination of the EcE synthesis with a systems dynamics, this research constructed an embodied cosmic exergy-based urban system model (EESM) using Beijing as an example of urban development. The results show that the 10 years from 2010 to 2020 will be very critical for the sustainable development of Beijing because many key factors, such as water resources, wastes and urban assets, might be confronted with great changes during this period. These changes will inevitably transform the urban system not only in its external circumstances but also in its inner structure and may lead to serious consequences. Of all the necessary resources, the most sensitive factor is water supply.     

地铁侧式车站列车火灾排烟模拟研究

利用火灾动力学模拟方法,对地下一层地铁侧式车站列车火灾的烟气蔓延规律和排烟效果进行了模拟研究。首先生成了地铁车站的三维模型,基于通风排烟系统的事故运行方案,对列车火灾烟气扩散过程、气流组织模式和烟气参数进行了计算模拟。模拟表明：排烟系统启动后,中间隧道的两端向内形成了大于5m/s的流速,屏蔽门处流速为站台流入隧道,可有效阻碍烟气进入站台区域,烟气排放主要通过车站轨顶风口排放,烟气在500s左右进入站台,排烟系统有效减缓烟气在站台的下降时间,为列车内乘客疏散提供了可用的安全疏散时间。     

A system dynamics model for evaluating the alternative of type in construction and demolition waste recycling center - The case of Chongqing, China

This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to evaluate alternative type of recycling center under different policy and economy environments through comparison on the economic feasibility of recycling centers and ratio of savings to costs in C&D waste management. A case study for the City of Chongqing, China is selected. Simulated results show three key factors can contribute to the economic feasibility of recycling and the ratio of savings to costs in C&D waste management: (a) profit; (b) unit recycling cost; (c) extra revenue from location advantage (It was assumed that the mobile centers can attain extra revenue from the location advantage compared with fixed recycling centers). The sensitive analysis and comparison on ratios between public and private sector indicate that to achieve the optimum ratio of savings to costs, design of recycling centers and selection of governmental instruments are determined by the priority list: (1) low extra revenue from location advantage; (2) low profit; (3) low unit recycling cost. Meanwhile, the fluctuation of the three factors must be prior to achieve economic feasibility of corresponding recycling centers.     

River environmental decision support system development for Suzhou Creek in Shanghai

The Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project (SCRP) is one of the largest water-related environmental rehabilitation schemes ever undertaken in the vicinity of Shanghai, China. This paper details the development and application of a River Environmental Decision Support System (REDSS) for scientific planning and decision-making on the Suzhou Creek project, and illustrates the flexibility of the REDSS framework. We developed the following components: (1) a GIS-based analysis employing Component technology; (2) a "data mart" for multi-dimensional, multi-level, integrated, dynamic, and flexible data querying; and (3) a set of hydrodynamic and water quality models which can simulate complex tidal river networks. In addition, we detail how a water quality assessment model is embedded into the REDSS by employing an Identification Index Method. With the REDSS, all GIS and non-GIS components are integrated seamlessly and data from different sources can be queried simultaneously. This allows for various scenarios to be simulated and analyzed in advance to predict and assess the effects of proposed engineering and management measures. Generated information can thus support effective decisions. All operations of the REDSS can be implemented conveniently through user-friendly interfaces. The function of the REDSS framework is demonstrated through an application to Suzhou Creek. Because the REDSS characteristics are quite general, it may be applied in different geographic regions.