Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis

This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the desertification risk in threatened areas. The procedure is based on an eight-equation dynamic model of a generic human–resource system that can be applied to different desertification syndromes. For each application, interest focuses on finding all the possible long-term final states of the system and on defining the conditions that mark out sustainability and long-term desertification by means of unambiguous specific parameter relations. The procedure is applied to three typified cases in Spain: (A) rainfed crops in areas with high soil erosion risk; (B) irrigated intensive agricultural systems; and (C) commercial rangelands. Results show that, in case A, high profit scenarios are responsible for the final extension of desertification but do not determine the specific threshold between sustainability and desertification. They do, however, in cases B and C.     

杭州市环保信访网络系统的研究与开发

在对市环保局信访处理流程研究的基础上，开发一套自动化、无纸化的环保信访处理信息系统。     

再议减轻自然灾害系统工程

随着“国际减灾十年”活动的进展，我国的减灾工作已进入制定减灾规划，实施减灾规划的新阶段，即进入减灾系统工程的设计与实施阶段。为了推动减灾系统工程的实施，需要建立先进的科学支持系统和社会保障体系，包括建立自然灾害信息系统；进行自然灾害区划与减灾区划；开展综合预报；建立自然灾害评估系统；进行灾害教育；发展灾害保险；推动减灾工作社会化与产业化；建立减灾示范区；开展灾害科学体系的全面研究和进行国际交流等。     

我国灾害地貌及其防治研究中的几个问题

本文通过对我国灾害地貌及其防治研究工作的初步分析,提出了我国目前灾害地貌及其防治研究中存在的诸如灾害地貌系统、灾害地貌防治工作的规范化、灾害地貌防治系统的优化、灾害地貌防治效益的评估以及灾害地貌预测预报和危险区划研究等方面的理论与实践问题,指出了在灾害地貌及其防治研究中应引起重视的若干方面。     

自然灾害综合预报和年度会商

本文从系统论的观点和高度上分析了自然灾害综合预报的必要性和重要意义，同时结合陕西省近几年开展年度综合会商的实际和体会，就自然灾害综合预报和年度会商的具体内容、形式和方法等建设问题进行了讨论，最后提出了今后进一步改进会商质量、提高预报水平的建议。     

The development and applications of a Drought Early Warning System in Botswana*

This article describes the indicators and data sources used by the Botswana Drought Early Warning System formally established in early 1984, the main uses of the indicators in the assessment of drought conditions and the design of relief programmes are outlined. Limitations of the sources of data available are discussed, as is the feasibility of adding some possible further indicators. In conclusion, the importance of a functioning Early Warning System in a country highly susceptible to repeated droughts is stressed, in the context of die current effort to elaborate a comprehensive National Food Strategy and to establish a Regional Early Warning System for Southern Africa.     

FORUM: Restoration of Stream Habitats in the Western United States: Restoration as Reexpression of Habitat Capacity

/ Ecological restoration is increasingly invoked as a tool for the maintenance and regeneration of biodiversity. Yet the conceptual foundations and assumptions underlying many restoration management activities are frequently unclear or unstated. Unforeseen, undesirable consequences of restoration activities may emerge as a result. A general conceptual framework for restoration is needed to better accommodate dynamic habitat systems and evolving biota in restoration strategies. A preliminary framework for stream habitat restoration emphasizing stream habitat-biota development is proposed. As developing systems, streams and stream biota exhibit temporal behaviors that change with stream environments. Underlying the dynamic development of streams is potential capacity. Streams express this capacity as an array of habitats over time and across the landscape. Human land uses in the western United States have rapidly altered aquatic habitats and the processes that shape habitat. As a result, the diversity of native fishes and their habitats has been suppressed. Restoration is fundamentally about allowing stream systems to reexpress their capacities. Several steps are provided to guide stream restoration activities. Key tasks include: identification of the historic patterns of habitat development; identification of developmental constraints; relief of those constraints; classification of sensitive, critical, or refuge habitats; protection of the developmental diversity that remains; and monitoring of biotic responses to habitat development. KEY WORDS: Stream habitat; Stream biota; System capacity; System development; Restoration; Classification     

创新我国环境监测体制和机制的构想

阐述了我国环境监测体制和机制创新的基本框架,阐明了符合体制创新要求的机构设置和职责分工,提出了资质管理、行业自律等新机制,最终构建"国家统一监管、地方监督实施、部门分工协作、单位自测申报、社会中介服务"的新型环境监测监管体系。     

也谈GAM与GM（1,1）模型

通过对环境预测中灰色建模方法的回顾，说明了ＧＡＭ和ＧＭ（１，１）模型各有所长，最重要的是建模手段的丰富。     

环境监测科研管理相关问题探讨

环境监测科研是环境监测的一项基础性工作，是环境监测事业发展的重要保障。加强环境监测科研工作，需要不断探索适合于时代发展和环境监测以及环境管理工作实际情况的环境监测科研管理模式。对环境监测科研管理的内涵和特点进行了分析；对环境监测科研管理部门的定位、环境监测科研管理的科研计划管理、环境监测科研管理中的科研队伍建设等进行了探讨。