关于日本风险管理体系工业标准的制定

简述了日本风险管理体系工业标准的出台背景、主要特点及意义 ,笔者通过对该标准出台的分析、研讨和深思 ,提出了探索具有中国特色且符合国际标准化潮流的企业风险管理机制和建立企业全面风险管理体系的建议     

River Chief System (RCS): An experiment on cross-sectoral coordination of watershed governance

The trans-regional characteristics of watershed governance produce more problems beyond the capacity of each individual water-related department, leading to the fragmentation of watershed management. The River Chief System (RCS) has experienced swift developments over the past decade in China by appointing the local government heads as river chiefs. RCS works efficiently in the short-term due to its superiority in the inclusion of clear responsibility, authority, and multi-sectoral collaboration. However, the characteristics of the authority-based vertical coordination of the hierarchical system remain unchanged, and therefore the problems of organizational logic and the responsibility dilemma still exist. Tasks including perfecting of laws, integrated watershed management, and public participation still need to be completed. RCS reflects the routine and characteristics of the migration of national governance, and as such provides new insights for other developing countries in the design of river management systems.     

区域循环工业发展评价指标体系的构建及应用

依据循环工业基本原理及Delphi方法,构建了包括资源利用效率、污染减量排放、资源循环利用、经济效益和科技水平在内的区域循环工业发展评价指标体系,并通过运用AHP(层次分析法)模型,测算了指标权重。据此,以南京市为例,评价了1996~2003年间南京市循环工业发展的状况,结果表明,自1996年以来,南京市循环工业发展水平不断提高,但是自2000年以来,在南京市工业经济效益不断增长的同时,资源利用效率、污染减量排放、资源循环利用、科技水平等指标增长缓慢,乃至出现波动性下降的状况,为此文章提出了相关政策建议。     

垃圾焚烧炉预处理系统设计与优化

论述了垃圾预处理系统的一些关键设备和技术要点,分析了垃圾焚烧炉预处理系统的流程设计和不同的设备组合方式,并介绍了一种用于循环流化床焚烧炉的预处理系统流程和试验结果。     

基于MapInfo的松嫩盆地水资源开发管理信息系统

以松嫩盆地水资源开发利用现状为基础 ,以GIS软件 (地理信息系统 )MapInfoProfessional作为开发平台 ,设计和建立了松嫩盆地水资源开发管理信息系统。该系统的建立对松嫩盆地水资源开发管理状况和相关信息的查询、检索提供了方便 ,同时对松嫩盆地水资源的合理开发利用及其管理决策提供了科学依据。     

旅客行李对高速客车车厢火源热释放速率的影响研究

为了得到考虑旅客行李影响情况下的高速客车车厢火源热释放速率的合理取值范围,以CRH1型动车组二等座车厢为例,以锥型量热仪和大型量热仪测定的高速客车车体内材料和行李的燃烧性能为输入参数,运用FDS软件模拟9种火灾场景下车厢的火源热释放速率随时间的变化规律,分析行李重量对车厢火源热释放速率的影响。研究结果表明:旅客行李对高速客车车厢火源热释放速率的影响是与通风条件协同作用的结果;在车门与车窗关闭条件下,旅客行李对于火源热释放速率的贡献值基本可忽略;在车门开启与车窗关闭条件下,旅客人均携带10kg和20kg行李时,行李对车厢火源热释放速率的贡献值为0.24MW和0.6MW,贡献率为5%和11%;在车门与逃生车窗开启条件下,旅客人均携带10kg和20kg行李时,行李对车厢火源热释放速率的贡献值分别为1.3MW和3.8MW,贡献率分别为7%和21%。     

中国地区大气汞的干沉降速度

借助箱模式对汞的干沉降过程进行敏感性分析,并利用区域大气环境模式系统RegAEMS计算中国地区汞干沉降速度的时空分布特征。结果表明,森林下垫面下三类汞（气态零价汞、活性气态汞和颗粒态汞）的干沉降速度较大( 0.13、4.5和0.45 cm·s^-1),水体表面上的相对较小（0.0012,0.5和0.11 cm·s^-1）。敏感性分析发现,三类汞的干沉降速度随着近地层风速增加;降水或者地表湿度降低会导致零价汞和活性气态汞干沉降速度增加;雪盖厚度会减小气态零价汞的干沉降速度而增加活性气态汞的干沉降速度。三类汞的干沉降速度在区域上分布类似,东北以及南部地区最高,华东地区最小。季节变化上,气态零价汞、活性气态汞的干沉降速度在多数下垫面都夏季最大,冬季最小;颗粒态汞季节变化不明显。     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

安全应急自救产品研发

介绍了一种新型自散热型缓降器。该新型自散热型缓降器是一种往复式高楼避难自救逃生器械,缓降器采用行星齿轮传动,工作时通过缓降绳索带动主机内的行星轮减速机构运转与摩擦轮毂内的摩擦块产生摩擦作用,保证使用者依靠自重始终保持一定速度平衡、安全缓降至地面,无需其他辅助动力,同时具备自散热功能,是高楼安全逃生产品之一。     

某地铁站突发事件乘客疏散行为分析研究(1)——统计分析

为了掌握突发事件下,乘客疏散速度,疏散时间等数值;基于某地铁站突发事件区间隧道乘客紧急疏散事故案例,采用统计分析突发事件下乘客在列车车厢、区间隧道平均疏散速度、平均疏散时间、触发列车设备等数据;结果表明:突发事件地铁运营公司反应时间为3分39秒;乘客在列车车厢内总体平均疏散速度0.08m/s,总体平均疏散时间3.31s/人;乘客在区间隧道疏散总体平均疏散速度0.145m/s,总体平均疏散时间4.10s/人等数值。为地铁设计人员、地铁安全评估、仿真模型、地铁运营安全管理、应急疏散预案的编制提供参考。