Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

安太堡露天煤矿职业健康安全管理体系绩效分析

通过对安太堡露天煤矿职业健康安全管理体系认证前后安全生产管理基础数据的调查和统计,采用定性和定量的分析方法对该企业的安全管理水平进行了绩效对比分析和模型分析。结果表明,对于露天煤矿企业,建立职业健康安全管理体系有利于提高企业安全管理的水平;同时证明,该绩效分析方法具有分析过程简单、分析结果科学实用等优点。     

遥感和GIS在森林病虫害监测管理中的应用模式

介绍了遥感技术,地理信息系统技术在森林病虫害监测管理中的应用模式,以及整个系统的集成。在整个系统中遥感用于获取森林病虫害信息,地理信息系统用于管理和处理森林病虫害信息。同时,也说明了全球定位系统可用于定位采集地面数据和导路。     

我国环境技术验证评价制度建设探析

在概述国外环境技术验证制度快速发展的背景下,论述了我国建设环境技术验证评价制度的目的、意义和条件,提出了建设环境技术验证评价制度应采取的对策措施。     

推进绿色交通体系建设的对策建议

论述了我国交通体系建设现状,剖析了我国交通体系建设过程现存的环境污染问题,从选址选线期的"事先绕避"、工程施工期的"事中防护"、工程运行期的"事后监管"3个方面提出了建设绿色交通体系的建议。     

能源和环境与区域经济协调发展研究

为了使陕西省的能源、环境和经济协调发展,文章基于陕西省目前能源和环境与经济发展现状,构建了能源和环境与经济协调发展的评价指标体系,提出"协调度"来描述该系统的发展状况,运用层次分析法(AHP)计算出各评估指标的权重和分数,分析评价了能源和环境与区域经济发展的协调性。结果表明:陕西省能源、环境和经济目前处于中级协调。     

湖南长株潭中度污染区土壤镉概率生态风险评价

湖南长株潭地区土壤修复试点工作已经开展,但并未关注重金属镉对生态系统的威胁,尤其是继续进行作物种植的中度污染区。文章选取长株潭地区三个县的中度污染区为研究区域,结合文献调研,利用美国ECO-TOX数据库获取了共计28个本地物种两个层次的毒性数据,利用物种敏感度分布(Species sensitivity distribution,SSD)模型和联合概率曲线(Joint probability curve,JPC)方法开展中度污染区的概率生态风险评价研究。结果表明,在LC/EC/IC水平50下,A县、B县、C县的概率生态风险值依次为1.65%、3.40%、5.80%;在NOEC/LOEC水平下,A县、B县、C县的概率生态风险值依次为7.46%、12.97%、19.50%。该结果说明,长株潭地区中度污染区土壤中重金属镉对生态系统具有一定的风险作用,同时该结果为生态系统保护目标制定提供科学依据。     

Design of Mass Exchange Network and Effluent Distribution System for effective water management

The environmental impact of industrial wastewater and higher cost of fresh water are the serious challenges faced by the process industries. It has led to the development of many new techniques to minimize fresh water consumption. Of the many approaches, which have been developed, the Water Source Diagram (WSD) is a flexible and dynamic alternative for the generation of different scenarios for the management of water networks with reduction in total consumption. In the present study WSD concept was coupled with water mains concept to mains simplify the piping network and reduce the cost. A new procedure was developed for integrating the effluent treatment processes to evolve Effluent Treatment Network. Example from literature having multi contaminants was considered. This simple procedure involving hand calculations will be a useful tool for process engineers to design water and effluent treatment networks. Also the WSD and ETN were combined to form an evolutionary WAMEN (Water Allocation and Mass Exchange Network) and the proposed WAMEN aims for minimum fresh water consumption.     

基于GIS的东莞市河流有机污染特征分析

基于水样采集分析和GIS数据处理技术,探讨了东莞市河流有机污染状况及空间特征。结果表明,东莞市各个不同级别的河流NH4+-N和TP污染都很严重,主要原因是经济发展迅速、废水排放量大、污水管网建设滞后等。运河干流下游段和低级别支流水质污染尤为严重,前者主要受到上游废水排放以及河道淤积的影响较大,而后者则与直接受纳乡镇工农业和生活污水有关,也与水处理设施落后有较大关系。     

基于WebGIS的大伙房水库安全预警决策支持系统的开发

为确保水源地安全,有效提高应急反应能力,探讨了"基于WebGIS的大伙房水库安全预警决策支持系统"的构成、功能及其数据库的设计。